Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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664
FNUS75 KPUB 191917
FWSPUB

Spot Forecast for Trout Creek RX...USFS
National Weather Service PUEBLO CO
117 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 2300 MDT on October 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (719) 948-9429, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

An upper disturbance is sending thin high clouds north across the
burn site today but it appears transport will be good enough to keep
ventilation in the very good range.  Friday, the disturbance will
move east of the site with windy and dry weather spreading in behind
it. Conditions will be near critical levels, mainly due to the wind
but also due to the humidity.  A weak cold front will move through
Saturday, followed by warming Sunday and Monday ahead of another
possible cold front on Tuesday.  Please see the forecast and outlook
below for specifics on those days.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40 percent).
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....65-70F.
Min humidity........7-12 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest 10-15 mph gusting to around 25 mph at times.
Mixing height.......7500 ft agl after 1100.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....very good until 1700 then good.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40 percent).
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....40-45F.
Max humidity........48-53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds becoming slope/valley 3-8 mph.
Mixing height.......3000 ft agl until 2100, then 1500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....West around 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair until 1900 then poor.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly Sunny.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....65-70F.
Min humidity........14-19 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10-20 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......1500 ft agl until 1000 then 7500 ft agl.
Transport winds.....West around 32 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0700 becoming excellent by 1200.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

The following forecast should be considered an outlook.
To get more accurate numbers, please request updated spot
forecasts as you get closer to the burn days.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows 35 to 40. Highs 45 to 50.
West winds 10-20 mph.  Min RH 15-20 percent.  Ventilation
good.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows 27 to 32. Highs 58 to 63.
West winds 8-18 mph.  Min RH 20-25 percent.  Ventilation
fair to good.
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 35 to 40. Highs 60 to 65.
Windy.  Westerly winds 15-30 mph shifting northwest late.
Min RH 15-20 percent. Ventilation very good to excellent.
.TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 32 to 37. Highs 55 to 60.
Slope/valley winds 3-8 mph. Min RH 20-25 percent. Ventilation
fair.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows 33 to 38. Highs 60 to 65.
Westerly winds 15-25 mph.  Min RH 10-15 percent.  Ventilation
very good to excellent.

$$
Forecaster...WALROD
Requested by...Mike Wicks
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1717510.1/PUB



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