Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4
000
FNUS71 KRNK 261935
FWSRNK

SPOT FORECAST FOR PLUM CREEK HAZMAT...MONTGOMERY CO EMA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
335 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON INCIDENT TIME OF 1522 EDT ON MAY 26.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM...THROUGH ROUGHLY 500 PM...MOST WILL REMAIN
ACROSS GILES COUNTY AND SKIRT NORTHERN PARTS OF PULASKI AND
MONTGOMERY COUNTY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AROUND THE SPILL
SITE...OR UPSTREAM OF THE SPILL SITE WITH THE PRECIPITATION MOVING
INTO THE AREA OF THE SPILL. THE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD MAXIMIZE
BY 800 PM...AND THEN WANE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT....BUT NOT
DROP BELOW ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE.

PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL RAMP UP AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY AT THE SPILL SITE BY 1000 AM WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY FROM THAT POINT ONWARD INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.REST OF TODAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURE.........79 AT INCIDENT...MAX 79.
RH..................58 PERCENT AT INCIDENT...MIN 58 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SOUTH AT 6 MPH AT INCIDENT...OTHERWISE
                    SOUTH WINDS AROUND 6 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR (0.01 IN).......30 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5000 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 16 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH AT INCIDENT...MAX 3.

TIME (EDT)          4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............82  85
WEATHER COV.........CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW
TSTM COV............CHC CHC
TEMP................79  79
RH..................58  58
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......5   5
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10
MIX HGT (KFT).......4.6 5.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....16  15
LVORI...............1   1
ADI.................46  44
CWR.................40  40
HAINES INDEX........3   3

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL EARLY MORNING. A CHANCE OF
                    SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 64.
RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE
                    EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. GUSTY
                    AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
                    UNTIL EARLY MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
                    EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CWR (0.01 IN).......40 PERCENT...DECREASING TO 30 PERCENT IN THE
                    EVENING...THEN INCREASING TO 40 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL...DECREASING TO 300 FT AGL EARLY IN
                    THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 2 TO 10 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).............85  82  79  80  81  82  83  84  85  86  87  88
WEATHER COV.........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC ISO ISO ISO ISO
TEMP................78  76  74  73  71  70  69  68  67  67  66  66
RH..................60  66  73  77  80  84  86  88  90  91  94  96
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT WIND SPD......5   5   4   4   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   1
20 FT WIND GUST.....10  10  10  5   5   5   5   5   5
MIX HGT (KFT).......3.5 2.1 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....10  6   2   2   3   5   6   7   7   7   6   5
LVORI...............2   3   3   4   4   5   5   6   6   6   6   8
ADI.................28  4   2   1   2   3   3   3   3   3   2   2
CWR.................40  40  40  40  40  30  30  40  40  40  40  40
HAINES INDEX........3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.WEDNESDAY...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
                    THE MORNING. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN
                    THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
                    LIKELY LATE IN THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 79.
RH..................MIN 62 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING SOUTHWEST
                    AROUND 5 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING
                    LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
                    MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CWR (0.01 IN).......40 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 50 PERCENT IN THE
                    MORNING...THEN INCREASING TO 60 PERCENT IN THE
                    MORNING...INCREASING TO 70 PERCENT IN THE
                    AFTERNOON...DECREASING TO 60 PERCENT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL...INCREASING TO 5400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 12 MPH.
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
                    DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR MODERATE POTENTIAL
                    FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).............89  90  90  90  89  88  87  86  85  85  85  85
WEATHER COV.........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
WEATHER TYPE........RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
TSTM COV............ISO ISO CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY
TEMP................64  64  67  69  71  73  75  76  77  78  78  79
RH..................100 100 93  86  79  73  70  66  64  63  62  62
20 FT WIND DIR......S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S
20 FT WIND SPD......1   1   1   2   2   3   3   4   4   4   4   3
20 FT WIND GUST.....            5   5   5   5   10  10  10  10  5
MIX HGT (KFT).......0.8 1.0 1.3 2.2 3.0 3.9 4.4 4.9 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.....SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW  SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.....6   7   9   9   9   9   10  12  12  12  10  10
LVORI...............9   8   5   4   3   3   3   3   1   1   1   1
ADI.................3   9   14  24  31  27  30  34  37  35  33  33
CWR.................40  40  40  50  50  60  60  70  70  70  60  60
HAINES INDEX........3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   5   5

$$
FORECASTER...SLEIGHTER
REQUESTED BY...NEIL TURNER
TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT
.TAG 20150526.PLUMC.01/RNK



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.