Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Alaska-Pacific RFC

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019
AGAK78 PACR 242253
HMDACR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT SAT SEP 23 2016

...FLOOD POTENTIAL...

RECENT RAINFALL OF UPWARDS OF 3 INCHES IN 3 DAYS PUSHED WATER LEVELS
BACK UP ON THE YENTNA AND SKWENTNA RIVERS. A FLOOD ADVISORY WAS
CANCELLED THIS MORNING AFTER WATER LEVELS FELL OVERNIGHT AND BELOW
FLOOD STAGE. IT IS LIKELY THAT LOTS OF STANDING WATER IN LOW LYING
AREAS REMAIN.

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF THE STATE IS LOW.

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION....

A LARGE SCALE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE STATE AND EXTENDS FROM
WESTERN COAST OF ALASKA TO WESTERN CANADA. WITHIN THIS FLOW ARE
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES HELPING TO INDUCE THE CONVECTIVE NATURE THAT HAS
TAKEN OVER THE WEATHER REGIME. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A RATHER CHAOTIC
PRECIPITATION PATTERN ON FRIDAY AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH A TROUGH AXIS STILL OVER THE WEST. THERE IS ONE SHORT
WAVE OF NOTE THAT WILL PASS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
OR EVENING THAT WILL ENHANCE THE RAINFALL BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY.

THE TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MAINLAND
OVERNIGHT AND REACH THE PANHANDLE BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. THIS
PROCESS LEAVES THE WEST OPEN TO RIDGING THAT TAKES A FIRM HOLD BY
TUESDAY.

...PRECIPITATION...

SELECTED PRECIPITATION TOTALS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS ENDING AT 4 AM
TODAY:

LOCATION NAME                 PE TS   24 HR
======== ====                 == ==   =====
PAYA     YAKUTAT              PP RZ :   1.32
NUCA2    NUCHEK               PC RM :   1.10
ESIA2    ESTHER ISLAND        PC RM :   1.00
SNEA2    SNETTISHAM POWER STA PC RZ :   0.91
MCPA2    MCARTHUR PASS        PP RG :   0.85
ZMBA2    ZAREMBO ISLAND SOUTH PP RG :   0.83
SRYA2    SITUK RIVER NR YAKUT PP RG :   0.80
NUKA2    NUKA GLACIER SNOTEL  PC RM :   0.80
GCRA2    GROUSE CREEK DIVIDE  PC RM :   0.80
PAWD     SEWARD               PP RZ :   0.79
GROA2    GROUSE CREEK NR SEWA PP RG :   0.72
TKVA2    TOKOSITNA VALLEY     PC R2 :   0.71
RUGA2    RUTH GLACIER RAWS    PC RG :   0.70
HONA2    HOONAH RAWS          PC RG :   0.70
PAII     EGEGIK               PP RZ :   0.66
DKLA2    DUNKLE HILLS NPS RAW PC RG :   0.63
ALEA2    ALSEK RIVER AT DRY B PP RG :   0.62
KMVA2    KENSINGTON VALLEY    PC RZ :   0.61
TKVA2    TOKOSITNA VALLEY     PC RM :   0.60
LLKA2    LONG LAKE SNOTEL     PC RM :   0.60
EYKA2    MT EYAK              PC RM :   0.60
ATGA2    ATIGUN PASS SNOTEL   PC RM :   0.60
BLTA2    BARTLETT COVE        PP RG :   0.59
PAKN     KING SALMON          PP RZ :   0.57

...LONG RANGE...

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE MAINLAND... ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WEST.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN MAINLAND INCLUDING THE
ALASKA PENINSULA.

PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HOME PAGE FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

....................................................................

THIS TEXT PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED DAILY UNTIL FREEZEUP IN THE FALL. A
GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/APRFC/GRAPHICALHMD

$$
ETH



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