Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Alaska-Pacific RFC

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AGAK78 PACR 312241
HMDACR

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NWS ALASKA PACIFIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT MON AUG 31 2015

...FLOOD POTENTIAL...

THE MOOSE CREEK DAM IS EXPECTED TO END ITS OPERATIONS OF THE DAM
TODAY. HIGH WATER LEVELS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER CHENA BASIN.
BELOW THE DAM PROJECT MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING WAS OCCURRING. CHENA
RIVER NEAR CHENA LAKES THE STAGE REMAINS JUST ABOVE MINOR FLOOD
STAGE BUT IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW TODAY. OVER ON THE KUSKOKWIM
RIVER WE ARE WATCHING HIGH WATER MOVE DOWN THE RIVER SYSTEM. WATER
LEVELS AT MCGRATH CRESTED ON SATURDAY AND NOW THE WAVE OF HIGH WATER
LOOKS TO BE CRESTING AT LISKYS CROSSING... JUST ABOVE THE VILLAGE OF
STONY RIVER.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORY OR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION.

FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CURRENTLY LOW OVER THE REST OF THE STATE.

...HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN ARCTIC LOW CONTINUES TO SLIP SOUTH ON MONDAY AND ENDS UP IN
A SIMILAR POSITION AS ITS PREDECESSORS AND IN THE GULF BY MONDAY
MORNING. SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOVE WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL EARLY ON
MONDAY. MORE IMPORTANTLY TO SOME EXTENT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE... NONE OF WHICH EXPECT TO BE
EXCESSIVE. OTHER SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHEST MAINLAND
WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS OF SNOW IN THE HIGH COUNTRY OF THE BROOKS RANGE
AND A MIX AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.

MEANWHILE OVER THE WEST AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... A DRYING AND WARMING TREND BEGINS OVER THE
MAINLAND THAT WILL LAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

...PRECIPITATION...

SELECTED PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE 24 HOURS ENDING AT 4 AM TODAY:

LOCATION NAME                 PE TS   24 HR
======== ====                 == ==   =====
SOUA2    SOULE RIVER NEAR HYD PP RG :   2.50
PAKT     KETCHIKAN            PP RZ :   2.06
SHLA2    SHELTER COVE RAWS    PC RG :   1.78
JTMA2    MT ROBERTS TRAM      PC RZ :   1.77
HADA2    HAIDA RAWS           PC RG :   1.76
THOA2    THORNE BAY RAWS      PC RG :   1.42
PAKW     KLAWOCK              PP RZ :   1.38
SDIA2    SOUTH DOUGLAS        PC RZ :   1.36
SIKA2    SITKA CRN            PP RG :   1.16
PAJK     JUNEAU WFO           PC RZ :   1.10
PAHN     HAINES LANDING STRIP PP RZ :   1.10
PAJN     JUNEAU               PP RZ :   1.07
PASI     SITKA                PP RZ :   0.98
GNLA2    NUNATAK LOWER GLACIE PP RG :   0.93
ZMBA2    ZAREMBO ISLAND SOUTH PC RG :   0.92
PANT     ANNETTE              PP RZ :   0.92
HONA2    HOONAH RAWS          PC RG :   0.89
META2    AK METLAKATLA 6S     PP RG :   0.88
MCAA2    MONTANA CREEK AT BAC PP RG :   0.86
GQIA2    QUEEN INLET GLACIER  PC RG :   0.82
ABYA2    AUKE BAY LAB DOCK    PC RZ :   0.79
ZMBA2    ZAREMBO ISLAND SOUTH PP RG :   0.78
PAPG     PETERSBURG           PP RZ :   0.76
GTSA2    GUSTUVUS 2NE         PP RG :   0.72

...LONG RANGE...

THE 6 TO 10 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE STATE... ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HOME PAGE FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

....................................................................

A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THE HYDROMET DISCUSSION IS AVAILABLE AT
HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/GHMD.PHP

A GRAPHICAL SLIDE SHOW PRESENTATION OF HYDROMET ISSUES IS AVAILABLE
AT HTTP://APRFC.ARH.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PRESENT
$$

ETH


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