Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS Middle Atlantic RFC

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000
AGUS71 KRHA 131353
HMDRHA

HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
MIDDLE ATLANTIC RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
853 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

The coldest air of the season is now across the Mid Atlantic
which will last through Sunday.  Baseflow freeze-up and ice
formation along rivers, streams and smaller creeks will
continue due to the very cold temperatures.

A weak warm front will bring a period of light snow to parts
of MARFC`s southwestern and western river basins Monday.  A
more significant weather system to effect the Mid Atlantic
region will come overnight Monday into Tuesday as low pressure
moves northeastward from the Gulf coast.

Uncertainty remains on both the intensity and location of
the surface low Tuesday.  Current indications continues
to suggest a widespread 1 to 2 inches of QPF across MARFC`s
eastern river basins extending from SE New York, into New
Jersey, eastern Maryland and through much of Virginia which
matches up with WPC`s Day-3 execssive rainfall outlook. The
lightest QPF (water equivalents in the one half /0.50/ inch
range) is expected across MARFC`s far northern and western
river basins.

Early indications also suggest a chageover from snow to
mostly all rain across MARFC`s eastern river basins and
mixed snow, sleet and rain across western river basins.
Precipitation type, amounts and timing will all be dependent
upon the actual track and strength of the surface low.  MARFC
will monitor this situation as it develops.

Basin average QPF (water equivalents) for this upcoming event
are expected to range from one half /0.50/ up to one and three
quarter /1.75/ inches.  Except for some fluctuations in stage
due to ice formation, expect little change in river and stream
levels through Monday.  Rises on Rivers and streams will begin
overnight Monday through Tuesday.  All MARFC river and stream
forecasts will be issued shortly.

DAS

NNNN




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