Ice Forecast
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK

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FZAK80 PAFC 252257
ICEAFC

SEA ICE ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
200 PM AKST WEDNESDAY 25 FEBRUARY 2015

FORECAST VALID...MONDAY 02 MARCH 2015

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...MODERATE TO HIGH

SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BRISTOL BAY AREA WILL BEGIN TO
SLIDE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
PUSH ACROSS THE BERING SEA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A WEAK FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SERIES OF LOWS WILL BRING COLDER AIR TO THE
WESTERN BERING SEA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN BERING SEA AND PUSH INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA BY MONDAY.

-ARCTIC OCEAN-
-BEAUFORT SEA-
-CHUKCHI SEA-
PKZ500-WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ505-CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ510-EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ220-WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
PKZ225-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
PKZ230-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
PKZ235-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
PKZ240-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
PKZ245-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-

ICE COVERED.

-BERING SEA-

PKZ215-KOTZEBUE SOUND-
PKZ200-NORTON SOUND-
PKZ210-DALL POINT TO WALES-
PKZ160-BRISTOL BAY-
PKZ180-KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
PKZ181-NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
PKZ185-SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-

THE MAIN ICE EDGE LIES FROM THE ALASKA COAST NEAR NAKNEK TO 58.3N
158.5W TO 58.5N 159.3W TO 58.5N 162.2W TO 59.7N 162.2W TO 59.4N
163.3W TO 59.6N 164.8W TO 58.5N 167.2W TO 58.6N 172.4W TO 60.5N
177.1W TO 61.8N 177.7W AND CONTINUES ALONG THE RUSSIAN COAST. THE
ICE EDGE IS MAINLY OPEN WATER.

FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE BERING SEA...MODERATE TO STRONG
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE FRIDAY BEFORE
GRADUALLY SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY SATURDAY EVENING AND THEN BECOME STRONG
FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

THE ICE EDGE IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST 15 TO 30
NM THROUGH MONDAY.

-COOK INLET-PKZ140-COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY-

COOK INLET ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...HIGH

SYNOPSIS FOR COOK INLET...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE A WEAK LOW
PUSHES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND TOWARD COOK INLET LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF ON
MONDAY.

THE MAIN ICE EDGE LIES FROM THE COAST NEAR 60.4N 151.3W TO 60.5N
151.9W TO 60.4N 152.2W. THE ICE EDGE CONSISTS OF MAINLY OPEN WATER.
LOW CONCENTRATIONS OF ICE ARE ALSO PRESENT IN SHALLOW BAYS ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF LOWER COOK INLET.

FORECAST FOR COOK INLET THROUGH MONDAY...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH MONDAY WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. THE OVERALL ICE PACK WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO DECREASE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH SOME
ADDITIONAL STRIPS OF ICE WILL LIKELY BE PULLED DOWN IN THE RIP NEAR
THE WEST FORELAND WITH DAILY TIDE CHANGE. THESE WILL LIKELY MELT
WITH WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES.

PLEASE NOTE...COOK INLET SEA ICE CHANGES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
TIDES.

$$



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