Ice Forecast
Issued by NWS Anchorage, AK

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FZAK80 PAFC 042206
ICEAFC

SEA ICE ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
206 PM AKDT WEDNESDAY 04 APRIL 2016

FORECAST VALID...MONDAY 09 MAY 2016

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...MODERATE TO HIGH

SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL PUSH
INTO BRISTOL BAY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA AND ARCTIC OCEAN AND WILL
PUSH FURTHER NORTH INTO THE ARCTIC STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN BERING SEA. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD INLAND AND CONTINUE TO DISPLACE THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COAST OF ALASKA THROUGH MONDAY. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN BERING SEA FRIDAY EVENING.

-ARCTIC OCEAN-
-BEAUFORT SEA-
-CHUKCHI SEA-
PKZ510-EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ505-CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ245-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
PKZ240-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
PKZ235-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
PKZ500-WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
PKZ230-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
PKZ225-CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
PKZ220-WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-

ICE COVERED.

-BERING SEA-
PKZ215-KOTZEBUE SOUND-
PKZ210-DALL POINT TO WALES-
PKZ200-NORTON SOUND-
PKZ181-NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
PKZ180-KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
PKZ160-BRISTOL BAY-

THE MAIN ICE EDGE IN THE BERING SEA EXTENDS FROM A POINT NEAR 60.9N
165.2W TO 62.1N 166.0W TO 62.2N 165.7W TO 62.7N 167.2W TO 61.6N
165.7W TO 60.7N 168.9W TO 60.2N 171.1W TO 60.4N 171.4W TO 59.9N
172.5W TO 59.2N 178.1W TO 59.5N 179.5W AND CONTINUES IN RUSSIAN
WATERS. THE ICE EDGE IS MAINLY OPEN WATER. DECAYING SHOREFAST ICE
CONTINUES TO MELT FROM THE KUSKOKWIM RIVER DELTA UP TO THE YUKON
RIVER DELTA.

FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE BERING SEA...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BERING SEA THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW NEAR RUSSIA
WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN BERING SEA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH
WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES. WE EXPECT THE
REMAINING SEA ICE IN NORTON SOUND TO CONTINUE SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OUT OF THE SOUND THROUGH MONDAY. FIRST YEAR ICE IN THE
MAIN HIGH CONCENTRATION ICE BELT STRETCHING FROM THE NORTH COAST OF
SAINT LAWRENCE DOWN THE EAST COAST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AND DOWN
TO SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD APART TO THE WEST
AND SLOWLY MELT DUE TO INCREASING TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS WIND AND
WAVE ACTION. WE EXPECT ICE CONCENTRATIONS ALONG THE MAIN ICE EDGE IN
THE BERING SEA TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE MOST
DRAMATIC DECREASE IN CONCENTRATIONS THROUGHOUT THE MAIN ICE PACK
BETWEEN 175W AND 178W.

$$


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