Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXCA20 KWBC 021033
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
632 AM EDT WED SEP 02 2015

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM SEP 02/06
UTC: MEANDERING TUTT LOW TO THE NORTH IS DRIFTING TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
STRENGTHENS. DURING THE DAY TODAY EXPECTING THE UPPER LOW TO
RELOCATE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
THEN BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. THIS IS TO RAPIDLY
STRENGTHEN THE TRADE WINDS CAP THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH
CAP TO ESTABLISH AROUND 800 HPA. THIS IS TO THEN SUSTAIN THE RAPID
EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. STRONG CAP INVERSION IS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...WITH INVERSION TO SLACKEN SOMEWHAT ON
FRIDAY-SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MEANDERS WEST.

AT LOW LEVELS...LIGHT EASTERLY TRADES ARE TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THESE WILL REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR LAND/SEA
BREEZES TO ESTABLISH... WITH LAND BREEZE TO LIKELY FAVOR LIGHT
COASTAL CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AND WITH SEA BREEZE SHOWERS TO THEN AFFECT THE
WESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON.
UNDER STRONG CAP INVERSION...INITIALLY EXPECTING LIGHT SHOWERS.
BUT...AS THE CAP LIFTS TO AROUND 700 HPA LATER IN THE WEEK
EXPECTING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN AREA COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. PER
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IT LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY MIGHT HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.

SALMON...MS (ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA)
CABRERA...ONAMET (THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC)
DAVISON...WPC (USA)
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

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