Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXCA20 KWBC 061145
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
745 AM EDT FRI MAY 06 2016

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM MAY
06/06UTC: LARGE AND ROBUST POLAR TROUGH CENTERS OVER NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA AND EXTENDS INTO CUBA/BAHAMAS AND NORTHERN
HISPANIOLA. THIS TROUGH IS SUSTAINING A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENT
PATTERN THAT IS INTERACTING WITH AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM SOUTH
OF JAMAICA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AT
LOW-LEVELS...A FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INTO
SE CUBA...NW JAMAICA. AT PUERTO RICO WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
AT 10-15KT. ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING IN THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO.

MODELS DIVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION. THE ECMWF AND THE UKMET STALL THE PRE-FRONTAL BAND
OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE NORTH
ATLANTIC...SPARING PUERTO RICO AND THE VI. THE GFS IS THE ONLY
MODEL SUGGESTING A WET SPELL UNRAVELING DURING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THE GFS ALSO SHOWS THE SUBSIDENCE CAP ASSOCIATED WITH A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN REMAINING IN PLACE
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. UNDER THIS PATTERN...EXPECTING HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN WEST OF PUERTO RICO IN THE MONA
PASSAGE...WITH A COUPLE OF STRONG CELLS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST
ON SATURDAY. THE EVENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS
DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO. EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN
ACCUMULATIONS TOWARDS MONDAY...AS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER
HISPANIOLA AND NEWLY FORMED TUTT-INDUCED WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE
EAST. UNDER WEAK 5KT EASTERLIES...EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CLUSTER ALONG THE CORDILLERA. ALTHOUGH MODELS
DIVERGE IN RAINFALL TOTALS...WE LEAN TO MAXIMUM ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE ORDER OF 15-30MM/DAY MOSTLY CONCENTRATING IN THE
CORDILLERA...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

CARDOS...SMN (MEXICO)
CABANERIT...INAMEH (VENEZUELA)
DAVISON/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
$$





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