Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXCA20 KWBC 241028
PMDCA

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
627 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM MAY 24/06
UTC: THE GFS MADE PATTERN CORRECTIONS...AND LIKE THE EUROPEAN
MODELS PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED IT NOW FAVORS A SOMEWHAT STRONGER
SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO DOMINATE THE MID LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS RIDGE IS TO SUSTAIN A CAP INVERSION THAT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INHIBITING ORGANIZED CONVECTION. AT LOW
LEVELS...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DOMINATE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BACK
TO THE EAST. THIS IS TO THEN PERSIST WELL INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD. UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERLY TRADES...EXPECTING A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH MOST INTENSE LATER IN THE WEEK.

DURING THE WEEKEND...MODELS SHOW WEAKENING OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
AND AS A RESULT THE CAP INVERSION RELAXES ITS STRONGHOLD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. IN RESPONSE...THE MODELS SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE
ADVECTING FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLES. AS
MOISTURE POOLS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...PWAT IS TO INCREASE TO
NEARLY TWO INCHES DURING THE WEEKEND. PER CFS MODEL GUIDANCE...MJO
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME HIGHLY FAVORABLE DURING THE
WEEKEND. SO THERE IS A RISK/POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

CARDOS...SMN (MEXICO)
CABANERIT...INAMEH (VENEZUELA)
DAVISON/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)

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