Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS02 KWBC 281629
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1228 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

VALID 12Z WED AUG 31 2016 - 12Z SUN SEP 04 2016

...OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE/UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT...

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. AND CARVING OUT AN UPPER TROF
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.  THESE FEATURES
SHOULD SHIFT DOWNSTREAM WHILE AN UPPER TROF AMPLIFYING ALONG THE
WEST COAST BEGINS TO PROGRESS INLAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. TOWARDS
THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.  THE WPC DAY 3-7 FORECAST STARTED WITH
A GENERAL BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS/GEFS MEAN AND ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN EARLY IN THE PERIOD BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO JUST ENSEMBLE
MEAN GUIDANCE BY NEXT WEEKEND IN ORDER TO SMOOTH OUT SOME OF THE
DETAIL DIFFERENCES WITH AGGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST TROF ON FRIDAY AS WELL AS TO ACCOUNT FOR
SOME OF THE SPREAD WITH THE EXACT INLAND PROGRESSION OF HEIGHT
FALLS FROM THE WESTERN U.S. TROF.

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS FINALLY
STARTING TO SHOW SOME GENERAL CONSENSUS WITH POTENTIAL TROPICAL
SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE NATION THIS
WEEK...BOTH WITH T.D. EIGHT EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST BEFORE RECURVING OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND WITH
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH OF CUBA.  THE
LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF CUBA
COULD INTENSIFY WHILE TRACKING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...BUT THEN THE FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN
LATER IN THE WEEK WITH EXACTLY HOW MUCH IT DEVELOPS AND WHERE/WHEN
IT RECURVES TOWARDS THE GULF COAST STATES.  FOR NOW...THE WPC
FORECAST TRIED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE BEST CONSENSUS OF TRACKING THE
LOW INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THEN BRINGING IT
TOWARDS THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA.  PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION (WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV).



...WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS/THREATS...

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEMS...AND FLORIDA...THE SOUTHEAST...AND
LOCATIONS ALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST CLOSELY.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD RETURN TEMPERATURES
TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.  AS THE FRONT PRESSES FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST NEXT WEEKEND...IT COULD POTENTIALLY INTERACT WITH
THE GULF FEATURE IN SOME FASHION.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S....WHILE THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
OR BELOW NORMAL AND POTENTIALLY BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINS INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.


GERHARDT

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