Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS02 KWBC 311531
PMDEPD

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1130 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

VALID 12Z FRI JUN 03 2016 - 12Z TUE JUN 07 2016


...PATTERN OVERVIEW...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS CYCLE WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF A WEAK FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST FOLLOWING ON THE
HEELS OF WHAT REMAINS OF ONCE TROPICAL STORM BONNIE...WITH A
BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN US AND A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN US DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE FORECAST.  A TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND BECOME
SHEARED AS THE TROUGH PASSES TO ITS NORTH. A SEPARATE TROUGH WILL
MOVE TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND REACH THE COAST BY SUNDAY
EVENING INTO MONDAY.

...MODEL EVALUATION/PREFERENCES...

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...THERE IS PRETTY
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE OPERATIONAL RUNS NOT FAR FROM
THEIR MEANS...EVEN ON DAY 7.  IT STILL HOLDS THAT THE ECWMF AND
ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES ARE RELATIVELY FASTER/WEAKER WITH THE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE EAST COAST ON DAYS 5 TO 7/SUNDAY TO THURSDAY WHILE
THE GFS/GEFS SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN MORE AMPLIFIED/SLOWER.
HOWEVER...WITHIN THE PAST 24 HOURS...THERE IS CLOSER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE TWO MODEL CAMPS SO A PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD BLEND OF
THE OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF AND THEIR RESPECTIVE MEANS MADE UP THE
FORECAST WITH A SLIGHT HEDGE TO THE OPERATIONAL RUNS THROUGH DAY 6
AND A HEDGE TOWARD THE MEANS ON DAY 7.

...WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

INCREASINGLY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
RECORD HIGHS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY COOL
DOWN ALONG THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON COASTS ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WITH
THE RELATIVELY WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST AS THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH
INITIALLY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVES EASTWARD AND TAPS INTO GULF
AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY COOL
UNSTABLE FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND EAST WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.  THERE IS ALSO THE RISK FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS FLORIDA AS SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST
A TROPICAL SYSTEM LATER IN THE FORECAST. FINALLY...THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHING CALIFORNIA IS FAIRLY BENIGN BUT MAY INCREASE THE
CHANCES FOR DIURNAL INLAND MOUNTAIN THUNDERSHOWERS.


KOCIN













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