Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 021136
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
735 AM EDT MON MAY 02 2016

VALID 00Z TUE MAY 03 2016 - 00Z TUE MAY 10 2016

THE 2/00Z FORECAST CYCLE ESSENTIALLY MIRRORS THE CURRENT HAWAI`I
FORECAST THROUGH DAY 7. A BREAK (WEAKNESS) IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE DEVELOPING LATER THURSDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE ADVERTISED
FEATURE OF THE PATTERN --- RESULTING IN A SLACKENING OF THE
`NORTHEAST TRADES` AND AN INCREASE IN LAND/SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.

OF NOTE --- THE 2/00Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
VIGOROUS CUTOFF 500MB LOW SOLUTION NEAR 35N 150W FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY --- AND IT DOES INITIATE SOME SIGNIFICANT `PATTERN`
DIFFERENCES DOWNSTREAM FOR THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND GULF OF
ALASKA. BUT IN ESSENCE, THIS PECULIAR FEATURE DOES NOT SEEM TO
PRODUCE MUCH SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE FOR HAWAI`I.

BEYOND THE DAY 5 TIME FRAME --- RATHER THAN `CHASE` A PARTICULAR
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION ALONG 150W-160W LONGITUDE, WOULD SUGGEST
USING A 2/00Z ECENS/NAEFS BLEND TO HOLD THE PATTERN IN PLACE ---
AND MAINTAIN `SEPARATION` FROM THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW PATTERN AND
STORM TRACK (ALONG 50N LATITUDE).

VOJTESAK



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