Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 211215
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
814 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

VALID 00Z FRI AUG 22 2014 - 00Z FRI AUG 29 2014

STRONG UPPER RIDGING IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC (NEAR 36N/135W) IS
FORECAST TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS
ADDITIONAL RIDGING FORMS CLOSER TO THE GULF OF ALASKA. TROUGHING
INITIALLY NEAR THE ALEUTIANS WILL GIVE WAY TO RIDGING BY NEXT WEEK
(THAT SHOULD EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD), WHICH SHOULD LEAVE REGION
BETWEEN (ALONG 150-160W) IN RELATIVE TROUGHING NEXT WEEK.
MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SUBTROPICS DESPITE
THEIR DIFFERENCES AT HIGHER LATITUDES. AFTER A WAVE PASSES BY THE
REGION TODAY, THE WEATHER FOR HAWAI`I SHOULD STAY RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH NORTHEASTERLY TRADES AND LIMITED MOISTURE (PW VALUES BELOW
AVERAGE AUGUST VALUES THOUGH THE WEEKEND THAT TREND BACK TOWARD
AVERAGE NEXT WEEK). ANY CURRENT/POTENTIAL TROPICAL ACTIVITY SHOULD
STAY EAST OF 145W THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.


FRACASSO

$$




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