Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 061230
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
729 AM EST SAT FEB 06 2016

VALID 00Z SUN FEB 07 2016 - 00Z SUN FEB 14 2016

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH KAUAI TONIGHT AND DROP QUICKLY
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE BIG ISLAND SUNDAY. THIS OCCURS WELL
UNDERNEATH A MAIN DEEP LOW LIFTING WELL NORTH OF THE STATE.
AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE
POOLING SHOULD FAVOR ORGANIZED BUT PROGRESSIVE SHOWERS WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING ABOVE 1.25" ALONG THE FRONT. A
STRONG WIND SHIFT AND AIRMASS CHANGE WILL LEAD INTO PREDOMINANTLY
DRY LIGHT FLOW PATTERN ALL NEXT WEEK. A COMPOSITE OF COMPATABLE
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS PREFERRED OVERALL IN A PATTERN WITH
ABOVE NORMAL PREDICTABILITY.

SCHICHTEL

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