Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 051157
PMDHI

HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
656 AM EST THU MAR 05 2015

VALID 00Z FRI MAR 06 2015 - 00Z FRI MAR 13 2015

CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A WET PATTERN FOR HAWAI`I. THE 5/00Z
GEFS/ECENS AND THEIR DETERMINISTIC RUNS WERE IN GOOD MASS FIELD
AGREEMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC UNTIL 10/00Z. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW ONE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO MIGRATE EASTWARD
AND ANOTHER SYSTEM---A MID-LATITUDE CUTOFF SYSTEM---TO REPLACE IT.


AFTER 10/00Z, THE DIFFERENCES ARE MOST EVIDENT IN THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF ALASKA AND HAVE INDIRECT IMPACTS ON THE ENERGETIC
MID-LATITUDE CUTOFF 500MB LOW INVOF 37.5N 150W. THE 5/00Z
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION (GFS/ECMWF) IS A SLOWER ONE---THAN THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS BETWEEN 10/00Z AND 11/00Z--- BUT BOTH AGREE THAT
THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS 40N 140W
AROUND 11/00Z. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
REINFORCES AND/OR INTRODUCES MORE `MID-LATITUDE` FLOW ACROSS
HAWAI`I.

FOR THE DAY 6-7 FORECAST, RECOMMEND BLENDING THE 5/00Z GEFS/ECENS
AT A 30/70 RATIO RESPECTIVELY---IN ANTICIPATION OF ANOTHER INTENSE
500MB CUTOFF LOW TO EMERGE ALONG 160W-165W AND INVOF 35N AROUND
12/00Z. THE GFS/GEFS SOLUTION WOULD BE A MORE PROGRESSIVE
SCENARIO, AND THE BLENDED SCHEME WOULD ALLOW FOR A SLOWER
EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN ---AT THESE TIME SCALES.

VOJTESAK

$$




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