Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS10 KWNH 020644
PMDHMD

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
243 AM EDT THU JUL 02 2015

VALID JUL 02/0000 UTC THRU JUL 05/1200 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

00Z MODEL EVALUATION...INCLUDING THE NAM/GFS/UKMET/CMC AND ECMWF


...UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WESTERN CANADA THROUGH SAT/SUN...
...COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO HIGH PLAINS...

PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS WESTERN
CANADA THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS DIGGING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHOULD DRIVE A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THESE AREAS AS WELL. THE 00Z CMC IS A BIT FLAT
WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH...WITH THE 00Z UKMET
APPEARING TO BE A BIT TOO SHARP WITH AN IMPULSE NEAR THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS HAVE BETTER
AGREEMENT/CLUSTERING ALOFT. HOWEVER...AT THE SURFACE...THE 00Z GFS
BECOMES THE MOST PROGRESSIVE AS IT RELATES TO THE FRONT. THE 00Z
UKMET BECOMES THE SLOWEST. THE 00Z ECMWF GENERALLY REPRESENTS THE
GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS SURFACE AND ALOFT...AND THIS SOLUTION WILL
BE PREFERRED AT THIS TIME.


...SURFACE WAVE MOVING EAST FROM KS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
SAT...

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY THURS NIGHT AND
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRI NIGHT. THE GUIDANCE OVERALL APPEARS
TO BE IN BETTER MASS FIELD AGREEMENT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS.
THE 00Z CMC AND 00Z UKMET ARE TRENDING TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS WHICH IS BEST SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. A
BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WILL BE PREFERRED.


...SHORTWAVE CLIPPING THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FRI/SAT...

PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z CMC GRADUALLY BECOME THE SLOWEST/STRONGEST
SOLUTIONS WITH THIS FEATURE. THE 00Z UKMET BECOMES THE FASTEST
SOLUTION. THE STRONGER CLUSTERING FAVORS THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z
ECMWF...AND A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS WILL BE PREFERRED.


...MODEL TREND GRAPHICS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml...

...500 MB FORECASTS AT
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/h5pref/h5pref.shtml...

ORRISON

$$




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