Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS21 KWNC 241821
PMDTHR
US HAZARDS OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT JULY 24 2014

SYNOPSIS: AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM AND AREA
OF UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE NATION. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ALONG THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND WEAKEN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE STATE. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER
THE NORTHWEST U.S. AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEK 2 PERIOD.

HAZARDS

HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND
NORTHEAST SUN-MON, JUL 27-28.

HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, TUE-WED, JUL 29-30.

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES, SUN-SUN, JUL 27-AUG 3.

FLOODING OCCURRING OR IMMINENT FOR PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA.

SEVERE DROUGHT FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS, SOUTHWEST, PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
GREAT BASIN, AND CALIFORNIA.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR SUNDAY JULY 27 - THURSDAY JULY 31: AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM
ARE EXPECTED TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS DURING THE PERIOD. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN (1 TO ALMOST 2 INCHES) ARE
FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND
NORTHEAST SUN-MON. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM, IN COMBINATION WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE,
IS ANTICIPATED TO CAUSE HEAVY RAIN (1-1.5 INCHES) FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS TUE-WED. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN BUT MODEL UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES THE
SPECIFICATION OF RELATED HAZARD AREAS AT THIS TIME.



A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS DURING THE PERIOD. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, AND NORTHERN ROCKIES SUN-THU.
TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 95-100 DEGREES F. THIS IS OF
PARTICULAR CONCERN SINCE NUMEROUS WILDFIRES ARE BURNING ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND IDAHO. SMOKE FROM THESE WILDFIRES IS LIKELY TO REDUCE AIR
QUALITY.



FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE SOURIS RIVER IN NORTH DAKOTA.



AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS
MAINLAND ALASKA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ANTICIPATED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. AT THE CURRENT TIME
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH HAZARDOUS CRITERIA.



TROPICAL ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE IMPACTS OVER HAWAII.

FOR FRIDAY AUGUST 01 - THURSDAY AUGUST 07: UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO
PROLONG MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST, AND NORTHERN ROCKIES FRI-SUN.



BASED ON THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR VALID ON JULY 22, SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT CONTINUED TO DECREASE AND NOW COVERS 23.9 PERCENT OF THE CONTINENTAL
U.S.

FORECASTER: RANDY SCHECHTER

$$



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