Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 230827
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
327 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

VALID 12Z Fri Feb 23 2018 - 12Z Sat Feb 24 2018


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 SSE JCT 10 S SJT 30 NNW DYS 55 SSW F05 20 W SPS LAW
15 SW CQB 25 WNW COU 30 WNW AAA 15 N DNV 20 SW FWA 25 SSW CWAJ
25 NW DSV 20 SSW SYR 40 ENE BGM 25 N MSV 15 WSW MSV ABE
10 NNE LNS 20 NE FDK 20 SSE CBE 20 W W99 30 SE 48I 25 W I16
15 NNW LNP 15 SSW 1A6 25 SW OQT 25 NNE CHA 20 SSW CHA 15 SW 4A9
30 WNW BHM 20 W TCL 15 WNW NMM 30 E JAN 25 W TVR 15 SSE JCT.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 SSE SLG 45 ESE TBN 10 SSE GEZ 4I3 10 NE BVI 10 WSW DUJ
15 SSW FIG 15 SSE JST 15 SSE 2G4 25 E 3I2 30 WNW JKL 40 NW SME
35 N MSL 25 SW GWO 30 SSE GLH 20 W MLU 35 SSW ELD SHV 20 NNE GGG
15 N TYR 10 SW LNC 10 NE ACT 20 SE BWD 10 WNW BWD 20 SW RPH
20 W 1F0 20 ESE TQH 10 SSE SLG.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 NNE ELD 25 E TXK TRL 10 ESE RBD AFW 15 NNW DTO 10 NNW GYI
RKR 15 SSE HRO 15 E BPK 15 S UNO 20 NNW BYH 10 SSW DYR
25 SSE KM04 35 WSW UTA 35 NNE ELD.


Northeast TX/southeast OK---Arkansas---southeast MO---western TN
into the OH Valley

A very broad slight and moderate risk areas were maintained for
the upcoming day 1 period for yet another round of widespread
heavy to excessive rainfall amounts from northeast TX/southeast
OK---across much of Arkansas---southern MO and into the OH valley.
 The current training precipitation from SW to northeastern AR
into western TN may continue into the beginning of the upcoming
day 1 period.  However---the model consensus is then for
precipitation to begin to focus farther to the
northwest---initially from north central TX into southeast OK as
the low level southerly flow re-focuses across this area Friday
morning ahead of northeastward moving height falls embedded in the
southwest flow across the southern plains.  This developing
activity expected to then shift downstream into central to
northern AR---southern MO and into the OH valley. An overall very
favorable pattern will continue for widespread heavy to excessive
precip totals with an axis of much above average pw values---2 to
3+ standard deviations above the mean along and north of the
surface frontal boundary slowly moving northward day 1 across
these areas.  There are some typical model differences with the
latitude of the heaviest precip totals---with WPC leaning toward
the farther south solutions of the hi res arw--nssl wrf---HREF
mean.  This will support the heaviest rainfall and excessive
rainfall potential from northeast TX/southeast OK---central to
northern AR into the OH/MS river confluence area.  No significant
changes were made to the previous outlook for this period.

Oravec

$$




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