Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 230105
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
904 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...VALID 03Z SAT AUG 23 2014 - 00Z SUN AUG 24 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
OLZ 15 WSW RPJ 20 NNW LAF 20 SE LAF 25 SSW CVG 45 NNW JKL
35 S HTS 30 W I16 15 WNW LNP 10 SW EKQ 30 E OWB 15 SSE AJG
10 SSW TAZ 25 E UIN 20 WSW EOK 25 SSW OTM 20 ENE CSQ 10 SSE AIO
CBF 20 NW LNK 10 NW HDE 40 NW GLD 15 SW AKO 20 S IBM 30 W VTN
30 WNW HON 35 W BKX 15 W EST 20 SW CCY OLZ.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 NW CWVN 10 ENE CWAQ 40 W KD50 20 S KD50 KD60 45 ESE DIK
35 NW PHP 35 SE RAP 20 NNW CDR 45 WSW CUT 25 SW IKA 60 S MLS
65 NNE SHR 15 E BIL 45 W BIL 25 E LVM 25 SW LVM 40 SSW BZN DLN
30 WNW BTM 35 N 3DU 35 SE GPI 30 WSW 8S0 10 ENE CXDB 10 N CWOE
25 WSW CWEH 25 NW CWVN.


NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS

A BROAD SLIGHT RISK AREA MAINTAINED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS PERIOD.  THERE IS GOOD MASS FIELD
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS WITH THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG PACIFIC
NORTHWEST CLOSED LOW PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING SAT.  ANOMALOUSLY STRONG EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND VERY WELL DEFINED UPPER DIFFLUENCE
EXPECTED FROM THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES.  THIS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES---EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS--ALONG WITH THE THREAT OF RUNOFF
ISSUES---ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS FIRING FARTHER EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  THERE IS VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS
PORTION OF THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION AREA AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW
IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE--LEADING TO A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST
ACROSS THESE AREAS.

NORTHEAST CO INTO SE SD...THEN SEWD THROUGH IA INTO SE KY...

COMBINED MULTIPLE EXCESSIVE AREAS AND CHANGED ORIENTATION FROM
PREVIOUS OUTLOOK AREAS ACRS THIS REGION.  A RATHER WIDESPREAD
THREAT OF HEAVY TO PSBL EXCESSIVE RAINS EXIST ACRS THE OUTLOOK
AREA AS FAIRLY VIGOROUS S/WV TROF LIFTS NEWD FROMTHE SRN ROCKIES
OVERNIGHT ACRS THE CNTL HI PLAINS REGION.  HEIGHT FALLS AND ASSOCD
INCREASING UPR DIFFLUENCE NEAR DVLPG SFC LOW OVER WRN KS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE RATHER LARGE BROAD SCALE ASCENT OVER RATHER
MOIST FRONTAL BNDRY THAT WILL LIFT NWD OVERNIGHT WITH THE WAVE AS
THE LOW TRACKS TOWARD SD BY MIDDAY SAT.  RATHER LARGE QPF
DIFFERENCES HERE WITH GLOBAL MODELS TAKING HEAVIEST NEAR THE SFC
LOW TRACK WHILE THE HI RES CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS WRING OUT
HIER AMOUNTS FARTHER TO THE EAST..WHICH SEEMS MORE LIKELY GIVEN
DECENT INSTABILITY/CAPE AND LOCATION OF FRONT WHICH WILL PROVIDE
FOCUS FOR SRN ACTIVITY TO DVLP NEWD ALONG.  AXIS OF 1.75 TO 2 INCH
PWS WILL GENL LIFT NWD WITH THE WARM FRONT INTO SD BUT IS FCST TO
STAY MORE FOCUSED ACRS IA NEAR UPR RIDGE CREST..WITH RIBBON OF HI
PWS EXTENDING SEWD FROM THERE INTO KY THROUGH SATL AFTN.  EXPECT
ADDITIONAL STG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SHORT TERM HEAVY
RAINFALL TO OCCUR ALONG THIS AXIS WITH DEEP LAYERED NWLY FLO ALOFT
PROVIDING POTNL FOR TRAINING OF CELLS.  WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND MID WEST---ANY ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION THAT DOES PUSH EASTWARD MAY MOVE OVER AREAS THAT
RECEIVED HEAVY PRECIPITATION EARLIER ON FRI AND MAY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF ISSUES.  SEE MPD`S 310 AND 311 FOR FURTHER
DETAILS ACROSS THIS AREA.


SULLIVAN
$$





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