Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 010049
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
848 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...VALID 01Z SAT OCT 01 2016 - 12Z SAT OCT 01 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 S MRH 15 SSE PGV 15 SE HNZ 20 NNE MWK 10 SE I16 10 ENE 3I2
25 ESE LHQ 20 N ZZV 20 W PIT 10 ESE CBE 25 ESE CBE JYO DCA
15 NNW 2W6 NHK 20 SE NHK 15 WSW MFV 15 NE ORF 40 ENE FFA.


...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC REGION...

DEEPEST MOISTURE CHANNEL WITH TPWS OVER 2" CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD OFF SHORE LIMITED TO THE OUTER BANKS AND CHESAPEAKE BAY
VICINITY.  SOLID UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS/DIFFLUENCE PER CURRENT WV
LOOP ALONG WITH SOME REMAINING INSTABILITY PER 00Z RAOBS
(GSO/RNK).  UPGLIDE OVER THE WARM FRONT (NORTHEAST OF THE
OCCLUSION) IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN ONGOING SHALLOW ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AS SEEN IN GOES-IR.  MUCH OF THE
HI-RES CAM GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A GENERAL WANING TREND OVERALL WITH
TIME.  WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF WV AND VA SUPPORTS
AT LEAST MAINTAINING A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THOUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

...GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY...

OBSERVED TOTALS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS ALONG WITH REDUCING
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT HIGHER RATES  REMOVED A LARGE PORTION OF
THE MARGINAL RISK ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY.

GALLINA


$$





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