Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 230839
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
438 AM EDT WED AUG 23 2017

...VALID 12Z WED AUG 23 2017 - 12Z THU AUG 24 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
50 ESE ILM 30 WSW MYR 35 SE SSC 10 SSW UDG 10 SE SOP 20 SE FVX
15 SSW MFV 40 ESE WAL 100 SE OXB.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
50 S MTH 15 N KEY 10 W FMY 25 E PGD 30 WNW FXE 10 SE FPR
30 ENE SUA 45 ENE PBI 40 SW MYGF.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
55 NE MMHO 80 S OLS 20 NW FHU SAD 50 SW SOW 40 SE SOW
55 SSE GNT 65 W 4CR 15 NW CQC 20 NE SAF 15 SSE TAD 35 NE PUB
35 SE LHX 40 SSW CAO 40 SSW CVS GDP 60 SSW GDP 25 NNE MRF
70 S E38 100 E MMCU.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
55 E FFA 15 SW MQI 15 NNE EWN OAJ 15 SSW DPL EYF FAY JNX
20 S RZZ 15 SW AKQ PHF 20 NE NTU 75 E NTU.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
80 SE DUG 65 SW DMN 15 WNW SVC 40 W TCS 15 SSW TCS 25 NNW LRU
25 NW HMN 25 WNW SRR SRR 40 ESE ALM 45 ENE ELP 25 ESE LRU
50 SW MMCS 105 SSW MMCS.


...SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...

A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL AFFORD AN INCREASE IN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS WEST TX INTO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN NM ON WED.  THIS WILL SUPPORT
DEEPENING MOISTURE...WITH THE GFS SHOWING PW ANOMALIES OF 1-1.5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS WEST TX INTO SOUTHERN NM
WED EVENING.  THIS MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH ENHANCED LOW TO MID
LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE ADVANCING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CA IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.  THERE IS STILL A FAIRLY
GOOD MODEL SIGNAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS...WHICH MAY CAUSE
FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS...ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN NM WHERE
MID LEVEL ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE FORCING ALOFT.

...SOUTHEASTERN VA/EASTERN CAROLINAS...

A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES/OH
VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO SLOW ALONG THE COASTAL
MID ATLANTIC ON WED.  THIS WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR DEEP MOISTURE
AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  BACKING LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
SUPPORT PWS AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  THIS
MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY MOVING TROUGH THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH ALONG WITH RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS
IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE HEAVY AMOUNTS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

...SOUTH FLORIDA...

A SLOW MOVING TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING POOL OF DEEP MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.  PWS OF 2-2.25 INCHES WILL SUPPORT THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY AMOUNTS...WHICH MAY CAUSE RUNOFF
CONCERNS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS URBANIZED AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

PEREIRA
$$





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