Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 300059
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
858 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

...VALID 01Z SAT JUL 30 2016 - 12Z SAT JUL 30 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 E COS DEN 10 SSW GXY 20 ENE GXY 40 ENE AKO 15 N GLD
40 SW HLC 15 ENE PTT 20 SSW AVK 30 ESE WWR 35 SE PPA 20 SSW AMA
40 W AMA 15 SSW DHT 25 E CAO 25 W SPD LHX 40 SSW LIC 35 E COS.


0100 UTC UPDATE

HAVE REMOVED OR SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED SEVERAL SLIGHT RISK THREAT
AREAS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND RESIDUAL FORCING

...ERN CO/WRN KS/WRN OK/TX PANHANDLE...
SELY UPSLOPE FLOW HAS INITIATED SCTD CONVECTION ACRS PARTS OF SE
WY/WRN NEB FRI AFTN..AND THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SWD OR
SSEWD INTO ALONG AND EAST OF STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY AND INTO AXIS
OF 1-2 THSD MLCAPES .  MULTIPLE HRRR PARALLEL MODEL RUNS HAVE
SHOWN SOME POTNL FOR GROWTH AND AT LEAST SMALL SCALE ORGANIZATION
OVERNIGHT ACRS ERN CO INTO WRN KS/OK PANHANDLE...BUT NEG FACTOR IS
LACK OF FCST STG INFLOW INTO THE STORMS OVERNIGHT.   FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY FOCUSED...BUT WILL EXIST AT
TIMES...WHEREVER CELL MERGERS OCCUR...AND WHERE FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES HAVE BEEN REDUCED LOCALLY DUE TO RECENT
RAINS...ESPECIALLY PARTS OF EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS. FARTHER
SOUTH...ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED COMING OUT OF NE
NM INTO THE TX PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTN/EVE.   THESE STORMS WILL
BE MOVING INTO MDTLY UNSTABLE/UNTAPPED MLCAPES ALONG WITH HIGHER
PW/SFC DPS AND COULD RESULT IN SOME SHORT TERM VERY HEAVY RAINS.
OVERALL THE STORMS HERE HAVE BEEN PROGRESSIVE BUT THE SLOW
MOVEMENT MAY RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED RUNOFF PROBLEMS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE EARLY OVERNIGHT..BUT PSBLY BEYOND.

...TN/AR/SE OK/NRN MS...
LATE AFTN CONVECTION FOR THE MOST PART HAS REMAINED PROGRESSIVE
AHEAD OF REMNANT MCV THOUGH SOME SMALL LEWPS OR CELL MERGERS HAS
RESULTED IN LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST FEW HRS ACRS
SW TN INTO SRN AR INTO SE OK AS ACTIVITY MOVES INTO REGIONS OF
MODEST UNTAPPED MLCAPES.  HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN A BIT TOO QUICK TO
DIMINISH ACTIVITY ACRS THIS AREA..SO CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD
RUNOFF THREAT AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT COULD HOURS.  SEE MPD #503 FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION.

...SRN AZ...
STORMS BUILDING OFF THE MTNS OF SE AZ AND THE MOGOLLON RIM APPEAR
TO BE MORE OF A SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING GIVEN MOMENTUM OF
MID/UPR LEVEL DRY PUNCH EVIDENT BEHIND THE STORMS THROUGH WRN
NM..BUT WITH STORMS BUILDING INTO MODEST 15 TO 20 KT LOW LEVEL
FLOW WLY FLOW AND INCREASING PWS UP TO 1.5 INCHES OVER SCNTL/SW
AZ..COULD SEE SOME INTENSE SHORT TERM RAINFALL RATES AS SQLN MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT FROM EAST TO WEST...PSBLY LEADING TO
ISOLD RUNOFF ISSUES.

SULLIVAN/BURKE
$$




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