Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FOUS30 KWBC 240103
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
902 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2014

...VALID 03Z WED SEP 24 2014 - 00Z THU SEP 25 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
105 SSE MRH 110 SSE MRH 60 SE SUT 35 SSE SUT 20 SW SUT
20 SE CPC 20 W ILM 10 NW EWN 20 SSE SFQ 10 S FAF 35 ESE MFV
60 NE FFA 65 ESE HSE 105 SSE MRH.


EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA

03Z UPDATE...
NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS OUTLOOK AREA AND REASONING.  SULLIVAN

CONCERNS FOR POTENTIALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG
COASTAL SECTIONS OF NC INTO FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.  A WET PATTERN
TO CONTINUE THIS PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST---SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTS AS THE CLOSED LOW
THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE LIFTING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD.  STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY/INVERTED TROF FORECAST TO
LIE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTS WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIPITATION TOTALS ACROSS THESE
AREAS. THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE LATEST MODELS IN
KEEPING THE HEAVIEST TOTALS ALONG AND JUST OFF THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL SECTIONS FROM EASTERN NC INTO THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA
PENINSULA.   INTENSE RAINFALL RATES POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION
MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF EASTERN NC INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST VA---WITH RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE---ESPECIALLY IN MORE
URBANIZED REGIONS.  THE SLIGHT RISK WAS EXPANDED OUTSIDE OF THE
PREFERRED QPF SOLUTION TO COVER SOME OF THE SPREAD IN THE LATEST
GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE HEAVIEST QPF AMOUNTS.


ORAVEC
$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.