Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 161630
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 09/16/14 1630Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-WEST:1611Z  JS
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LOCATION...FAR W TEXAS/S NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA/FAR S NEVADA...
LOCATION...SE CALIFORNIA...
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ATTN WFOS...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...SGX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...CBRFC...CNRFC...
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EVENT...GENERAL DISCUSSION OF SATELLITE FEATURES FOR THE SW US PERTAINING
TO THE EARLY STAGES OF DEVELOPING HEAVY RAIN EVENT.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THE
CIRCULATION CENTER OF ODILE(ABOVE THE SFC) APPEARS TO BE OVER THE CENT
GULF OF CA THOUGH THE OFFICIAL POSITION OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER STILL
HAS IT DISPLACED TO THE SW OVER BAJA WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF A BIT OF
SHEAR. IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CORE OF THIS SYSTEM ALSO REMAINS WELL TO THE S OF THE US-MEXICO
BORDER THOUGH MOISTURE HAS CERTAINLY BEGUN TO SPREAD INTO THE SW US WITH
A NOTABLE SURGE TO THE N AND NW SEEN RECENTLY IN THE BLENDED TPW PRODUCT
INTO SW AZ/SE CA/FAR S NV. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE MOST RECENT
IMAGE NOW RANGE FROM JUST UNDER 2" OVER EXTREME S CENT AZ TO NEAR AND
SLIGHTLY OVER 1.5" OVER SE CA AND FAR S NV. OBSERVATIONAL DATA REVEALS SFC
DEWPOINTS HAVE RISEN TO THE LOWER 70`S OVER SW AZ/SE CA THOUGH MORNING
SOUNDINGS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF DRIER AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. FARTHER TO THE EAST FROM S CENT
AZ TO S CENT NM/FAR W TX, THE PRESENCE OF A 700MB TROF AXIS COMBINED
WITH THE NEARBY RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LEVEL JET MAX SPREADING
TO THE E ACROSS THE N PERIPHERY OF THE OUTFLOW ASSOCIAED WITH ODILE AND
MORE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN HAS RESULTED IN AREAS OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED TO ISOLATED SPOTS OF HEAVIER
EMBEDDED SHOWERS. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LIGHTNING RECENTLY IN THIS REGION WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER LIMITING INSTABILITY. UPDATING THE SPENES MESSAGE
FROM 10Z, HAVE NOW SEEN MESONET OBS SHOWING SPOTTY TOTALS OF OVER 1"
IN THE PAST 6 HOURS ESPECIALLY TO THE W OF PHOENIX AZ AND ACROSS SW-S
CENT NM AND EXTREME W TX NEAR EL PASO DESPITE NO REAL SATELLITE SIGNATURE.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1630-2230Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS AND LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH
00Z, WITH THE CORE OF ODILE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE US-MEXICO BORDER,
BELIEVE THE SITUATION ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF S CENT AZ TO S CENT NM/FAR
W TX WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A GOOD COVERAGE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL WITH GENERALLY ONLY LOCALIZED TO ISOL EMBEDDED SHALLOW HEAVIER
SHOWERS AS WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS LIMITS THE INSTABILITY.  FARTHER TO THE
N AND W, IN ADDITION TO THE AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE SURGE THIS MORNING,
HAVE ALSO SEEN THE GOES SOUNDER INSTABILITY PRODUCTS SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN CAPE/LI`S TO THE N AND W OF THE CLOUD SHIELD OVER SW-W CENT
AZ/SE CA/EXTREME S NV. FOR THESE AREAS AND ALSO SPOTS FARTHER TO THE E
ACROSS THE TERRAIN OF CENT AND N CENT AZ, BELIEVE THERE IS SOME THREAT
FOR SCATTERED PULSE TYPE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO TAKE PLACE INITIALLY
FAVORING TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES AS MORE
HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH COULD RESULT IN VERY
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN ISSUES GIVEN THE TRENDS SEEN IN THE MOISTURE PROFILES
THIS MORNING. THIS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE BRIEFING/COORDINATION
WITH WPC WHICH OCCURRED PRIOR TO THE DAY 1 WPC EXCESSIVE OUTLOOK. WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UPDATES WITH MORE SPECIFIC INFO HIGHLIGHTING THE
GREATER THREAT AREAS AS MORE SATELLITE IMAGERY/DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 3567 11409 3523 10946 3452 10601 3262 10522 3108 10625
2996 11121 3130 11527 3288 11647 3495 11558
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