Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 250732
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
TXZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 05/25/15 0732Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 0715Z  GOES-14 0729Z    WARREN
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LOCATION...W AND CENTRAL TEXAS...
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ATTN WFOS...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
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NESDIS IS CONTINUING TO ACCEPT APPEALS ON THE RETIREMENT OF THE SPENES
PRODUCT.  APPEALS CAN BE SUBMITTED BY EMAILING JOHN.SIMKO@NOAA.GOV
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EVENT...SATELLITE FEATURES WITH UL VORT EJECTING OUT OF SW US DEVELOPING
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS ACROSS WRN TX
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...FIRST PIECE OF ENERGY HAS ALREADY EJECTED
OUT OVER WRN TX FROM STRONG JET SITUATED OVER NRN OLD MEXICO...BUT STRONG
CAP HAS ONLY DECREASED SLIGHTLY.  BULK OF UL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT
POTENT AND COMPACT VORT IS PREPARING TO LIFT INTO W TX AS IT NEAR BIF.
RECENT STLT IMAGERY SHOWS BAROCLINIC LEAF CLOUD SIGNATURE DEVELOPING OUT
AHEAD...AN INDICATION THAT FRONTOGENEICAL FORCING IS INCREASING ACROSS
THE AREA.  EXPERIMENTAL GOES CONVECTIVE INITIATION PRODUCT IS GRADUALLY
SHOWING SIGNS OF A CU FIELD DEVELOPING ALONG THE SERN EDGE OF BAROCLINIC
LEAF SIGNATURE ROUGHLY BTWN FST AND MAF.  GOES SOUNDER REVEALS RAPIDLY
RETURNING CAPE VALUES AND LLVL MOISTURE SURGING NW ALONG RIO GRANDE
AIDED BY 30+KT S/SERLY 850 MB WINDS.

SFC ANALYSIS AT 07Z...SHOWCASES TWO THERMAL BOUNDARIES ACROSS W TX.  A NRN
ONE LOCATED ALONG AND JUST S OF I-20 AND THE SRN ONE E AND SE OF DRT.
THE GRADIENT WITH THE NRN ONE IS STRONGER AND GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF
THE DYNAMICS AND ANTICIPATED FRONTOGENICAL FORCING...THINKING THIS AREA
WILL HAVE THE HIGHER PROBABILITY OF ORGANIZING CONVECTION.  THIS IS NOT
TO SAY ACTIVITY WON`T LEAD TO HEAVY RAINS FARTHER S...BUT IT MAY BE MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE.  ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE SOME TCU DEVELOPING ALONG
THE ERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS IN OLD MEXICO JUST W OF DRT IN LATEST
1-MIN GOES-14 IMAGERY.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR...AS CAP CONTINUES
TO ERODE AND PW MOISTURE INCREASES TO 1.0+" PW VALUES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HRS CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATED AND SPREAD EWD.  A S-N DRY LINE
DOES EXIST JUST W OF INK AND FST AND THAT MAY HELP TO PROVIDE A FOCUS
INITIALLY AND THEN WITH MOISTENING LLVL AND DRIER AIR ALOFT FORWARD
PROPAGATION IS ANTICIPATED.  AS ACTIVITY PROPAGATES OUT TOWARD CENTRAL
TX...SRLY INFLOW MAY LEAD TO ELONGATED E-W DIRECTED CONVECTIVE BANDS
SUPPORTING HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE
AS NEW INFORMATION ARRIVES.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 3263 9916 3192 9862 3096 9886 2942 9856 2863 10081
2947 10191 3137 10294 3241 10169
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