Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 231143
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
HIZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 08/23/16 1142Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-15: 1100Z JRM
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LOCATION...HAWAII...
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ATTN WFOS...HFO...
ATTN RFCS...AKRFC...
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EVENT...ONGOING THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HAWAIIAN
ISLAND CHAIN
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...A LARGE AREA OF HVY RAIN HAS PERSISTED
AND HAS SHOWN RECENT EXPANSION/DEVELOPMENT NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
NIGHT. OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...NOTICEABLE CLOUD TOP COOLING HAS
SPREAD NW NEAR/OVER THE BIG ISLAND. AN INCREASE IN LIGHTNING DENSITY
HAS ALSO BEEN OBSERVED USING THE EXPERIMENTAL LIGHTNING STRIKE DENSITY
PRODUCT. THIS CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE PLUME OF ANOMALOUS
PWAT VALUES NEAR/OVER 2" SEEN IN THE BLENDED TPW...INCHING NW IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER SEEN IN
SHORTWAVE IMAGERY S/SW OF THE EASTERN ISLAND CHAIN. ADDITIONALLY...A
WELL DEVELOPED SHEAR AXIS OR AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS IN PLACE
SE TO  NW THROUGH THE BIG ISLAND. THIS CONVERGENCE AXIS LIES WITHIN
AN AREA OF LIGHT...BUT SUFFICIENT ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL SUPPORT EXHAUST TO INDUCE/SUSTAIN THE LOW/MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND LIFT....KEEPING THE STATIONARY CONVERGENCE AXIS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE MORNING.
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ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ISLAND CHAIN AS SUBTLE
HINTS IN MODEL FORECASTS AND WV IMAGERY SUGGEST THE PRESENCE OF A COUPLE
OF IMPULSES. GIVEN THE HIGH PWAT VALUES...THESE IMPULSES COULD COINCIDE
WITH PEAK HEATING AND MODEST INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HVY RAIN
THIS AFTN. FURTHERMORE...WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE AREA...MAY PROVIDE MORE SUPPORT FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFTN.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1140-1600Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...EXPECT CONVECTION TO SUSTAIN AND POTENTIALLY
EXPAND NW WITH TIME ALONG THE SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS. HVY
RAIN WITHING A VERY FAVORABLE LOWER TO MID ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL CREATE
VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES AND AT TIMES LOCALLY INTENSE RATES ALONG THE
WINDWARD SIDE AND UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND.  THIS CONVECTION MAY
SPREAD NW TOWARD MAUI AND EVEN PORTIONS OF LANAI AND MOLOKAI AS UPSTREAM
IMPULSES SHOULD COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING AND ANOMALOUS MOISTURE THIS
AFTN. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THESE IMPULSES...LOWER CONFIDENCE EXISTS
FOR THE CENTRAL ISLANDS THIS AFTN.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 2328 15958 1988 15344 1737 15548 2144 16115
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