Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 051616
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-ORZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/05/15 1615Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-WEST:1600Z  JS
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LOCATION...W COLORADO/SW WYOMING/N AND E UTAH/S IDAHO...
LOCATION...N NEVADA/N CALIFORNIA/S OREGON...
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ATTN WFOS...RIW...GJT...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...REV...MFR...STO...
ATTN RFCS...CBRFC...NWRFC...CNRFC...
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NESDIS IS CONTINUING TO ACCEPT APPEALS ON THE RETIREMENT OF THE SPENES
PRODUCT.  APPEALS CAN BE SUBMITTED BY EMAILING JOHN.SIMKO@NOAA.GOV
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EVENT...SATELLITE FEATURES AND MESO-ANALYSIS FOR POSSIBLE
ISOLATED-LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS CLOUD BAND
WITHIN MAX AXIS OF REGIONAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE STRETCHING FROM S OR/N CA
EASTWARD TO SW WY/N UT AND SOUTHWARD INTO E UT/W CO.  NOTABLE MID/UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES/CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THIS SHEARED SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD BAND WERE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NW NV/SE OR, NW
UT AS WELL AS LIKELY REMNANT MID LEVEL FEATURE FROM OVERNIGHT BATCH
OF CONVECTION SOMEWHERE OVER E UT/FAR W CO. ANALYSIS SHOWS SPOTS OF
LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL ALONG THIS ENTIRE AXIS OF HIGHER 850MB
DEWPOINTS AND 700MB RH WITH SOME COLLOCATION OF 850MB CONVERGENCE AND
UPPER DIVERGENCE SEEN DUE TO PRESENCE OF DEFORMATION AXIS AND GENERAL
POSITION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM MFR, LKN,
SLC, AND GJT ALL REVEALED ANOMALOUSLY MOIST PROFILES WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES RANGING FROM OVER 1" TO ALMOST 1.3" AND EVEN HIGHER FARTHER
TO THE S OVER FAR SE  UT WHICH FALLS APPROXIMATELY IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE
AND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF NORMAL FOR JULY. CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWS RATHER WIDESPREAD CLOUD DECK ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THIS REGION
WHICH WILL INITIALLY LIMIT INSTABILITY TO SOME EXTENT THOUGH RAP ANALYSIS
DOES SHOW INSTABILITY GRADUALLY BUILDING IN AREAS JUST S OF THE CLOUD
BAND AND IN SPOTS WHERE CLOUDS ARE THINNING.
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OUTLOOK...BELIEVE THERE ENOUGH FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP WITHIN LARGE ELONGATED AXIS
FROM N CA/S-SE OR ACROSS N NV/FAR S ID TO N UT/FAR SW WY THEN SOUTHWARD
OVER E UT/W CO (SEE APPENDED OUTLINED GRAPHIC ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS
BELOW IN APPROX 10 MINUTES). ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM POTENT MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING BY TO THE N (CURRENTLY DROPPING SE OVER WA/N ID)
AND THE APPROACH OF DRIER AIR AT MID LEVELS ESPECIALLY OVER NE NV/N-CENT
UT COULD AID IN SOME LIFT/INSTABILITY THOUGH OVERALL FORCING MECHANISMS
AND INFLOW FOR SUSTAINABILITY ARE A BIT LIMITED. WEAK STEERING FLOW
ALOFT AND MOIST PROFILES SHOULD PROMOTE ISOL-VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN
THREAT FROM THE STRONGER CELLS WHICH FORM AS DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY
INCREASES. BRIEFED/COORDINATED WITH WPC EARLIER THIS MORNING AND IT WAS
DETERMINED THAT THE THREAT IS NOT EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION
IN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THREAT AREA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED
BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID ####-####Z...####### CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...######
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 4293 11586 4242 11058 4008 10833 3817 10815 3860 11075
4067 11361 4086 11847 4113 12210 4272 12173
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NNNN


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