Satellite Precipitation Estimates (TXUS20 KWBC)
Issued by NWS

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000
TXUS20 KNES 302232
SPENES
ZCZC NFDSPENES ALL
SPENES
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/30/14 2232Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 2215Z  HANNA
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LOCATION...LOUISIANA...ARKANSAS...TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...
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ATTN WFOS...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
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EVENT...SATELLITE FEATURES FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN EVENT TONIGHT
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS MODESTLY
ANOMALOUS BUT YET VERY WELL DEFINED IMPULSE DROPPING SE THROUGH THE
S PLAINS IN DEEP NW FLOW.  DRYING ON WV IMAGERY APPROACHING THE W RED
RIVER VALLEY WAS INDICATIVE OF JET STREAK THAT WAS COUPLING WITH WELL
DEFINED JET STREAK OVER THE OH VALLEY TO ENHANCE WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
OVER THE S PLAINS STATES.  WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN COOLED AIR
MASS HAS HELPED TO GREATLY LIMIT INSTABILITY WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY
ON GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY MOSTLY CONFINED IN A NARROW RIBBON ROUGHLY
ALONG SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM GLS NW TO SW OK AND THEN W TO
VIC OF AMA.  LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY HAS BEGUN TO PUSH INTO PORTIONS OF W OK WITH ENHANCED AREA
OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE LOCATED OVER PORTIONS OF SW OK.  HAVE BEGUN
TO NOTICE SOME INCREASED TCU/CB DEVELOPMENT NEAR FSI AND ALSO FURTHER
N NEAR JWG AND GOES-R EXPERIMENTAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALGORITHM IS
INDICATING INCREASING PROBABILITIES OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION WITHIN THIS
VIC OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 2130-0330Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT TERM OUTLOOK...WOULD EXPECT FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP WITHIN AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM E OF JTS SW TO NEAR LTS AS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS AND LOCALIZED DAY TIME HEATING HELP TO ERODE
REMAINING CAP.  LOCAL AREA VWPS WERE SHOWING THAT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WAS OVER PORTIONS OF W OK WITH ANOTHER MESOSCALE FEATURE NOTED  IN
VIS IMAGERY OVER THE NE TX PANHANDLES AND THESE SHOULD DRIFT SLOWLY SE
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT.  RESPONSE TO THIS SHOULD BE
BACKING AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER PORTIONS OF E TX HELPING
TO ENHANCE BEST MOISTURE FLUX AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT INTO NE TX AND
SE OK WHILE ALSO TRYING TO TAP BETTER INSTABILITY AXIS NOTED ON GOES
SOUNDER OVER THE CNTRL TX COAST.   DEEP NW UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES
WOULD TEND TO AT LEAST SUGGEST THAT THERE SHOULD BE FORWARD PROPAGATING
COMPONENTS TO THE SE TO ANY AREAS OF SMALL SCALE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TIME PERIOD AND BEYOND, THE POSITIONING OF
UPSTREAM THERMAL. MOISTURE AND DEVELOPING LLJ AXIS ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT
THICKNESS PATTERN WOULD TEND TO FIT THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR POSSIBLE
UPSTREAM REGENERATING CONVECTIVE EVENT.  IF THIS DOES OCCUR, BELIEVE THAT
FAVORED INITIATION POINTS  WOULD BE OVER PORTIONS OF S CNTRL OK/N CNTRL
TX AND THIS COULD POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR SHORT PERIODS OF QUASISTATIONARY
SMALL SCALE CONVECTION/TRAINING BEFORE ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
EVENTUALLY DROPS SE.  ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WAS MOSTLY WEAK IT DID APPEAR
SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONSIDERING THE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN
PLACE ON BLENDED PW ANALYSIS AND AREA SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING ROUGHLY 4KM
DEEP ABOVE 0C LAYER TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION RATES.  CURRENT THINKING
WOULD TEND TO FAVOR HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND
BEYOND JUST N OF CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM  ROUGHLY RKR/TYR
AXIS EXTENDING NW TO ADH/ADM/LUD AXIS.
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....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF NWSCHAT (NESDISSATELLITEPRECIP)....
....NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET....
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FOR QUESTIONS AND COMMENTS CONCERNING THE SATELLITE
PRECIPITATION MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS PLEASE EMAIL
SSDPrecip@noaa.gov
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FOR PRECIP MESSAGES AND GRAPHICS ON THE WEB:
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/spe/
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FOR AUTOMATED SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ON THE WEB:
http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/ff/CONUS.php
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LAT...LON 3510 9620 3414 9426 3294 9375 3195 9436 3172 9513
3204 9614 3327 9783 3449 9772
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