Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
UXUS97 KGJT 011334
SRGGJT

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
0634 MST Sunday, March 1, 2015

This forecast is for Sunday, March 1, 2015:

If the trigger temperature of 43.9 F/6.6 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Poor
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 0 ft/min (0.0 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 9120 ft MSL (4281 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 44.0 F/7.1 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1315 MST
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Broken/overcast opaque middle
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 5677 ft MSL (838 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Monday 03/02....... Fair

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:46:50 / 18:05:24 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 11 hr 18 min 33 sec (678 min 33 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:26:22 MST... 43.42 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 03/01/2015 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. 6446 ft MSL (1607 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 9175 ft MSL (4336 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 9197 ft MSL (4357 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +6.5
K index......................... +14.2

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -55.4 -67.7   250   52   27   3.0   1.6  110.9 231.6    59.1      M    M
 45000  -54.6 -66.3   255   65   34  -1.6  -0.9   87.4 189.2    48.9      M    M
 40000  -51.4 -60.5   255   83   43  -4.4  -2.4   69.2 156.6    40.5      M    M
 38000  -57.4 -71.3   255  103   53   1.5   0.8   51.1 124.0    29.6      M    M
 36000  -55.5 -67.9   250  121   62  -0.3  -0.2   45.3 113.5    26.4      M    M
 34000  -54.6 -66.3   250  124   64   6.5   3.6   37.1  98.8    21.5      M    M
 32000  -49.3 -56.7   245  125   64   8.9   4.9   36.4  97.5    21.5      M    M
 30000  -44.3 -47.7   250  123   63   4.6   2.5   35.1  95.2    21.1      M    M
 29000  -42.6 -44.7   250  120   62   5.7   3.1   33.5  92.4    20.2      M    M
 28000  -40.5 -40.9   250  117   60   4.7   2.6   32.5  90.4    19.6      M    M
 27000  -39.2 -38.6   250  114   59   9.4   5.1   30.3  86.6    18.2      M    M
 26000  -37.0 -34.6   250  111   57   2.6   1.4   29.3  84.8    17.7      M    M
 25000  -35.8 -32.4   250   97   50   6.5   3.6   27.1  80.9    16.2      M    M
 24000  -34.0 -29.2   250   92   47   5.6   3.1   25.8  78.4    15.3      M    M
 23000  -33.1 -27.6   250   86   44   3.5   1.9   23.2  73.8    13.4      M    M
 22000  -32.1 -25.8   245   80   41   3.3   1.8   20.9  69.6    11.7      M    M
 21000  -30.6 -23.1   245   73   38   6.1   3.3   19.2  66.5    10.4      M    M
 20000  -28.7 -19.7   240   67   34   6.4   3.5   17.9  64.2     9.4      M    M
 19500  -28.1 -18.6   240   64   33   2.6   1.4   17.0  62.6     8.7      M    M
 19000  -27.5 -17.5   240   62   32   5.8   3.2   15.9  60.7     7.9      M    M
 18500  -25.7 -14.3   245   59   30   8.8   4.8   15.4  59.7     7.5      M    M
 18000  -24.5 -12.1   245   54   28   7.3   4.0   15.1  59.2     7.3      M    M
 17500  -23.6 -10.5   245   49   25   6.5   3.5   14.5  58.2     6.8      M    M
 17000  -22.3  -8.1   245   44   23  11.1   6.1   14.4  57.9     6.7      M    M
 16500  -21.0  -5.8   245   38   20   6.1   3.3   14.2  57.6     6.5      M    M
 16000  -20.1  -4.2   245   34   17   6.2   3.4   13.6  56.5     6.0      M    M
 15500  -19.2  -2.6   245   33   17   6.7   3.7   13.0  55.4     5.4      M    M
 15000  -18.1  -0.6   245   33   17   7.8   4.3   12.6  54.7     5.1      M    M
 14500  -17.0   1.4   245   32   17   5.1   2.8   12.2  54.0     4.8      M    M
 14000  -16.2   2.8   245   32   16   7.6   4.2   11.5  52.7     4.1      M    M
 13500  -15.1   4.8   245   31   16   7.4   4.1   11.1  52.0     3.8      M    M
 13000  -14.0   6.8   245   30   15   7.6   4.1   10.7  51.3     3.4      M    M
 12500  -12.7   9.1   250   24   12   9.2   5.1   10.5  50.9     3.3      M    M
 12000  -11.4  11.5   255   19   10   9.4   5.1   10.4  50.7     3.2      M    M
 11500  -10.2  13.6   260   19   10   4.4   2.4   10.1  50.1     2.9      M    M
 11000   -9.8  14.4   260   19   10   4.0   2.2    9.0  48.2     1.9      M    M
 10500   -9.7  14.5   250   16    8  -3.0  -1.7    7.5  45.6     0.5      M    M
 10250   -9.6  14.7   245   15    8   9.6   5.3    6.9  44.4    -0.1    435  2.2
 10000   -8.6  16.5   240   14    7  14.1   7.8    7.3  45.1     0.2      M    M
  9750   -7.9  17.8   235   13    7   8.1   4.5    7.3  45.1     0.2      M    M
  9500   -7.2  19.0   235   11    6   9.3   5.1    7.2  45.0     0.1      M    M
  9250   -6.5  20.3   240    9    5   9.0   4.9    7.2  44.9     0.0      M    M
  9000   -5.9  21.4   240    7    4   9.2   5.0    7.1  44.8    -0.0    286  1.5
  8750   -5.2  22.6   240    6    3   8.7   4.8    7.1  44.7    -0.1    258  1.3
  8500   -4.6  23.7   235    5    3   7.6   4.1    6.9  44.5    -0.2    233  1.2
  8250   -4.1  24.6   235    4    2   7.4   4.1    6.8  44.2    -0.4    209  1.1
  8000   -3.5  25.7   230    3    2   6.7   3.7    6.6  43.8    -0.6    186  0.9
  7750   -3.1  26.4   210    3    2   5.5   3.0    6.3  43.3    -0.9    166  0.8
  7500   -2.7  27.1   195    4    2   7.2   3.9    6.0  42.8    -1.2    146  0.7
  7250   -2.1  28.2   185    5    2   8.4   4.6    5.9  42.6    -1.4    121  0.6
  7000   -1.5  29.3   175    6    3   8.1   4.4    5.8  42.4    -1.5     95  0.5
  6750   -0.9  30.4   170    4    2   8.2   4.5    5.6  42.1    -1.6     70  0.4
  6500   -0.3  31.5   165    2    1   8.2   4.5    5.5  41.9    -1.8     44  0.2
  6250    0.3  32.5   080    1    0   8.1   4.5    5.4  41.7    -1.9     19  0.1
  6000    0.9  33.6   020    2    1   8.2   4.5    5.3  41.5    -2.0      M    M
  5750    1.3  34.3   025    3    1   0.2   0.1    4.9  40.9    -2.4      M    M
  5500    1.0  33.8   045    2    1  -5.8  -3.2    3.9  38.9    -3.4      M    M
  5250    0.6  33.1   065    2    1  -4.0  -2.2    2.8  37.0    -4.5      M    M
  5000    0.3  32.5   085    3    1  -5.2  -2.9    1.7  35.1    -5.6      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           03/01/2015 at 0800 MST          |       03/01/2015 at 1100 MST
                                           |
K index... +7.0  LI... +4.5                | K index... +12.3  LI... +5.7
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.7                   | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -4.1
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -55.7 -68.3  255  47 24   1.0   0.6 | -56.7 -70.1  255  51 26   1.2   0.7
 45000 -54.2 -65.6  250  60 31   1.0   0.6 | -54.9 -66.8  250  62 32   1.3   0.7
 40000 -53.4 -64.1  255  81 42   0.4   0.2 | -54.4 -65.9  250  87 45   0.2   0.1
 38000 -53.2 -63.8  255  91 47   0.5   0.3 | -54.1 -65.4  250  98 50   1.0   0.6
 36000 -52.9 -63.2  255 104 53   0.5   0.3 | -53.5 -64.3  250 110 57   1.0   0.6
 34000 -52.6 -62.7  250 117 60   2.0   1.1 | -52.9 -63.2  250 123 63   3.7   2.0
 32000 -49.0 -56.2  250 116 60   6.2   3.4 | -49.0 -56.2  250 118 61   6.4   3.5
 30000 -45.3 -49.5  250 115 59   6.5   3.6 | -45.2 -49.4  250 114 59   6.5   3.6
 29000 -43.3 -45.9  250 112 58   6.8   3.7 | -43.3 -45.9  250 109 56   6.2   3.4
 28000 -41.3 -42.3  255 109 56   6.8   3.7 | -41.0 -41.8  250 104 53   6.2   3.4
 27000 -38.7 -37.7  255 105 54   7.0   3.8 | -39.1 -38.4  250  99 51   6.2   3.4
 26000 -37.1 -34.8  255  99 51   4.9   2.7 | -37.1 -34.8  245  94 48   7.0   3.8
 25000 -35.6 -32.1  255  92 48   4.9   2.7 | -35.0 -31.0  245  88 45   7.0   3.8
 24000 -34.1 -29.4  255  86 44   4.9   2.7 | -32.9 -27.2  245  83 43   7.0   3.8
 23000 -32.3 -26.1  250  78 40   6.9   3.8 | -30.8 -23.4  245  79 40   7.1   3.9
 22000 -30.3 -22.5  250  71 36   6.9   3.8 | -28.7 -19.7  240  75 39   7.1   3.9
 21000 -28.2 -18.8  245  63 33   7.0   3.8 | -26.6 -15.9  240  72 37   7.1   3.9
 20000 -26.2 -15.2  245  59 30   6.7   3.7 | -24.5 -12.1  240  69 36   7.1   3.9
 19500 -25.3 -13.5  245  57 29   6.7   3.7 | -23.5 -10.3  240  68 35   7.1   3.9
 19000 -24.3 -11.7  245  55 28   6.7   3.7 | -22.4  -8.3  240  67 35   7.1   3.9
 18500 -23.3  -9.9  245  53 27   7.1   3.9 | -21.4  -6.5  240  66 34   7.1   3.9
 18000 -22.5  -8.5  245  52 27   3.0   1.6 | -20.3  -4.5  240  64 33   7.1   3.9
 17500 -22.0  -7.6  245  50 26   3.3   1.8 | -19.3  -2.7  245  61 32   7.2   3.9
 17000 -21.5  -6.7  250  49 25   4.8   2.6 | -18.3  -0.9  245  58 30   4.8   2.6
 16500 -20.6  -5.1  250  46 24   5.8   3.2 | -17.7   0.1  245  53 27   4.1   2.2
 16000 -19.7  -3.5  255  44 23   5.7   3.2 | -17.1   1.2  245  47 24   4.0   2.2
 15500 -18.9  -2.0  260  41 21   5.4   3.0 | -16.6   2.1  250  42 21   3.9   2.1
 15000 -18.1  -0.6  260  37 19   5.3   2.9 | -16.0   3.2  250  36 19   3.8   2.1
 14500 -17.2   1.0  260  34 18   6.9   3.8 | -15.5   4.1  255  32 16   2.1   1.2
 14000 -16.2   2.8  265  31 16   6.8   3.7 | -15.2   4.6  260  27 14   2.0   1.1
 13500 -15.2   4.6  265  28 14   6.8   3.7 | -14.3   6.3  265  21 11   4.5   2.5
 13000 -13.7   7.3  265  23 12   6.8   3.7 | -13.7   7.3  265  17  9   5.5   3.0
 12500 -12.7   9.1  265  20 10   6.9   3.8 | -12.7   9.1  265  14  7   6.9   3.8
 12000 -11.7  10.9  260  18  9   7.0   3.8 | -11.6  11.1  260  11  5   7.3   4.0
 11500 -10.6  12.9  255  15  8   7.2   4.0 | -10.5  13.1  250   9  4   7.8   4.3
 11000  -9.6  14.7  250  13  7   7.3   4.0 |  -9.3  15.3  235   7  4   7.9   4.3
 10500  -8.5  16.7  245  11  6   7.9   4.3 |  -8.2  17.2  215   6  3   8.6   4.7
 10250  -8.0  17.6  240  11  6   5.3   2.9 |  -7.7  18.1  205   6  3   4.6   2.5
 10000  -7.7  18.1  235  10  5   4.9   2.7 |  -7.5  18.5  195   6  3   5.2   2.8
  9750  -7.2  19.0  230  10  5   7.9   4.3 |  -6.8  19.8  185   6  3   9.4   5.2
  9500  -6.7  19.9  225   9  5   8.0   4.4 |  -6.2  20.8  180   7  4   8.7   4.8
  9250  -6.1  21.0  215   9  4   7.2   3.9 |  -5.6  21.9  175   8  4   7.4   4.1
  9000  -5.7  21.7  210   8  4   5.5   3.0 |  -5.2  22.6  175   8  4   5.8   3.2
  8750  -5.3  22.5  205   8  4   5.9   3.2 |  -4.7  23.5  170   8  4   7.4   4.1
  8500  -4.8  23.4  200   7  4   6.9   3.8 |  -4.1  24.6  170   9  4   8.4   4.6
  8250  -4.4  24.1  195   7  3   5.5   3.0 |  -3.5  25.7  165   9  5   7.2   4.0
  8000  -4.0  24.8  185   6  3   3.9   2.2 |  -3.0  26.6  165   9  5   6.2   3.4
  7750  -3.8  25.2  170   5  3   3.2   1.8 |  -2.6  27.3  165   8  4   6.3   3.5
  7500  -3.5  25.7  155   4  2   3.4   1.9 |  -2.1  28.2  160   8  4   5.9   3.2
  7250  -3.2  26.2  140   4  2   5.9   3.2 |  -1.7  28.9  155   7  4   5.4   2.9
  7000  -2.7  27.1  135   5  2   7.1   3.9 |  -1.4  29.5  150   6  3   5.2   2.9
  6750  -2.2  28.0  135   5  2   6.9   3.8 |  -1.0  30.2  145   5  3   5.2   2.8
  6500  -1.7  28.9  135   5  2   7.4   4.1 |  -0.6  30.9  135   5  2   7.2   3.9
  6250  -1.2  29.8  135   5  2   6.9   3.8 |   0.0  32.0  135   4  2   8.8   4.8
  6000  -0.6  30.9  140   5  2   9.1   5.0 |   0.6  33.1  130   4  2   8.3   4.5
  5750   0.0  32.0  145   4  2   5.6   3.0 |   1.2  34.2  130   3  2   8.4   4.6
  5500   0.1  32.2  145   4  2  -2.7  -1.5 |   1.8  35.2  130   3  2   8.7   4.8
  5250  -0.2  31.6  145   3  2  -2.0  -1.1 |   2.5  36.5  130   3  2   8.7   4.8
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           03/01/2015 at 1400 MST          |       03/01/2015 at 1700 MST
                                           |
K index... +14.6  LI... +4.3               | K index... +16.3  LI... +3.4
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -1.0                   | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... -0.3
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -57.5 -71.5  255  46 24   0.5   0.3 | -57.2 -71.0  250  47 24   0.5   0.3
 45000 -56.8 -70.2  250  63 32   0.5   0.3 | -56.4 -69.5  250  64 33   0.7   0.4
 40000 -55.4 -67.7  250  95 49   0.9   0.5 | -58.1 -72.6  250 103 53  -1.2  -0.7
 38000 -54.6 -66.3  250 107 55   2.0   1.1 | -57.4 -71.3  250 113 58   4.5   2.4
 36000 -53.4 -64.1  245 117 60   2.0   1.1 | -54.7 -66.5  245 117 60   4.4   2.4
 34000 -52.1 -61.8  245 127 65   5.0   2.7 | -52.0 -61.6  245 120 62   6.8   3.7
 32000 -48.2 -54.8  245 123 63   6.5   3.5 | -47.6 -53.7  245 118 61   7.3   4.0
 30000 -44.3 -47.7  245 119 61   6.4   3.5 | -43.3 -45.9  245 116 60   7.0   3.8
 29000 -42.5 -44.5  245 113 58   6.1   3.3 | -41.2 -42.2  245 112 58   6.7   3.7
 28000 -40.3 -40.5  245 106 55   6.1   3.3 | -38.7 -37.7  245 107 55   6.7   3.7
 27000 -38.4 -37.1  245 101 52   6.1   3.3 | -36.7 -34.1  245 104 53   6.5   3.5
 26000 -36.5 -33.7  245  93 48   6.5   3.6 | -35.2 -31.4  245  96 49   4.8   2.6
 25000 -34.6 -30.3  245  86 44   6.5   3.6 | -33.7 -28.7  245  88 45   4.8   2.6
 24000 -32.6 -26.7  245  78 40   6.5   3.5 | -32.3 -26.1  245  79 41   4.6   2.5
 23000 -30.6 -23.1  245  72 37   7.1   3.9 | -30.4 -22.7  245  74 38   6.7   3.7
 22000 -28.5 -19.3  240  67 34   7.1   3.9 | -28.4 -19.1  245  71 36   6.7   3.7
 21000 -26.3 -15.3  235  62 32   7.0   3.8 | -26.4 -15.5  250  67 35   6.9   3.8
 20000 -24.3 -11.7  230  57 30   6.8   3.7 | -24.3 -11.7  245  61 31   7.1   3.9
 19500 -23.3  -9.9  230  55 28   6.8   3.7 | -23.3  -9.9  245  58 30   7.2   3.9
 19000 -22.3  -8.1  230  53 27   6.8   3.7 | -22.2  -8.0  240  55 28   7.2   4.0
 18500 -21.3  -6.3  230  51 26   6.7   3.7 | -21.2  -6.2  240  52 27   7.3   4.0
 18000 -20.4  -4.7  230  49 25   5.7   3.1 | -20.1  -4.2  235  50 26   7.2   4.0
 17500 -19.6  -3.3  230  46 24   5.9   3.2 | -19.1  -2.4  235  48 25   7.2   3.9
 17000 -18.8  -1.8  230  43 22   3.9   2.2 | -18.0  -0.4  235  45 23   7.6   4.2
 16500 -18.3  -0.9  230  38 20   3.7   2.0 | -16.9   1.6  235  43 22   7.6   4.2
 16000 -17.7   0.1  230  34 17   4.5   2.5 | -15.7   3.7  235  40 21   7.5   4.1
 15500 -16.9   1.6  230  30 16   5.5   3.0 | -14.7   5.5  230  37 19   7.4   4.1
 15000 -16.1   3.0  230  27 14   5.8   3.2 | -13.6   7.5  225  35 18   7.4   4.0
 14500 -15.1   4.8  235  24 13   7.0   3.9 | -12.5   9.5  225  32 17   7.2   3.9
 14000 -14.1   6.6  240  23 12   7.0   3.8 | -11.5  11.3  220  30 15   7.3   4.0
 13500 -12.6   9.3  240  20 11   6.6   3.6 | -10.2  13.6  220  26 13   4.9   2.7
 13000 -11.6  11.1  240  19 10   6.6   3.6 |  -9.5  14.9  215  23 12   4.2   2.3
 12500 -10.7  12.7  240  17  9   6.5   3.5 |  -9.0  15.8  210  19 10   3.4   1.9
 12000  -9.7  14.5  240  14  7   6.1   3.4 |  -8.5  16.7  210  14  7   3.5   1.9
 11500  -8.9  16.0  240  11  6   5.8   3.2 |  -8.0  17.6  215  10  5   3.6   2.0
 11000  -8.1  17.4  235   8  4   5.6   3.1 |  -7.5  18.5  230   7  4   4.5   2.5
 10500  -7.3  18.9  225   6  3   5.9   3.3 |  -6.7  19.9  230   5  3   6.0   3.3
 10250  -6.9  19.6  220   5  2   3.1   1.7 |  -6.3  20.7  230   4  2   3.3   1.8
 10000  -6.7  19.9  205   4  2   4.2   2.3 |  -6.1  21.0  225   3  2   3.9   2.2
  9750  -6.2  20.8  195   4  2   7.6   4.2 |  -5.6  21.9  210   3  1   7.1   3.9
  9500  -5.7  21.7  180   4  2   6.9   3.8 |  -5.2  22.6  180   2  1   6.4   3.5
  9250  -5.2  22.6  170   4  2   6.2   3.4 |  -4.7  23.5  150   2  1   6.3   3.5
  9000  -4.8  23.4  165   4  2   6.0   3.3 |  -4.3  24.3  130   3  2   6.1   3.4
  8750  -4.3  24.3  165   5  2   7.5   4.1 |  -3.8  25.2  125   4  2   6.7   3.7
  8500  -3.7  25.3  170   5  3   7.8   4.3 |  -3.3  26.1  120   5  2   6.6   3.6
  8250  -3.1  26.4  170   6  3   7.6   4.2 |  -2.8  27.0  115   5  3   7.1   3.9
  8000  -2.6  27.3  175   6  3   7.5   4.1 |  -2.2  28.0  115   6  3   7.5   4.1
  7750  -2.0  28.4  180   6  3   7.5   4.1 |  -1.7  28.9  115   6  3   7.0   3.8
  7500  -1.5  29.3  185   6  3   7.2   4.0 |  -1.2  29.8  115   6  3   6.5   3.6
  7250  -1.0  30.2  185   5  3   6.9   3.8 |  -0.7  30.7  120   5  3   5.6   3.1
  7000  -0.5  31.1  185   5  3   6.8   3.7 |  -0.4  31.3  125   5  3   5.3   2.9
  6750  -0.0  32.0  185   4  2   6.8   3.7 |   0.0  32.0  130   5  2   5.5   3.0
  6500   0.5  32.9  185   4  2   9.1   5.0 |   0.4  32.7  140   4  2   6.7   3.7
  6250   1.3  34.3  185   4  2  11.0   6.0 |   0.9  33.6  145   4  2   7.6   4.2
  6000   2.0  35.6  190   4  2  10.2   5.6 |   1.5  34.7  150   4  2   7.2   4.0
  5750   2.8  37.0  190   4  2   9.6   5.3 |   2.0  35.6  155   4  2   6.6   3.6
  5500   3.4  38.1  190   4  2   9.3   5.1 |   2.4  36.3  155   4  2   6.3   3.4
  5250   4.1  39.4  185   3  2   9.6   5.3 |   2.9  37.2  155   4  2   6.7   3.7
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 07 min 0.000 sec
                   West Longitude: 108 deg 32 min 0.000 sec
                   Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Front Range of the
Colorado Rocky Mountains.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather
prediction models differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to
data which appear to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should
not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613


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