Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
UXUS97 KGJT 281236
SRGGJT

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
0636 MDT Thursday, May 28, 2015

This forecast is for Thursday, May 28, 2015:

If the trigger temperature of 66.4 F/19.1 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 1061 ft/min (5.4 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 17019 ft MSL (12180 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 78.0 F/26.0 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1030 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ 1730 MDT
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 13816 ft MSL (8977 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Friday 05/29....... Excellent

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 05:52:10 / 20:30:29 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 14 hr 38 min 19 sec (878 min 19 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:11:31 MDT... 72.36 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 05/28/2015 at 0600 MDT

Freezing level.................. 11873 ft MSL (7034 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 11870 ft MSL (7031 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 13735 ft MSL (8896 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -4.0
K index......................... +24.1

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -60.7 -77.3   240   12    6   2.6   1.4   99.0 210.3    42.0      M    M
 45000  -57.5 -71.5   255   20   10  -1.2  -0.7   78.6 173.6    32.6      M    M
 40000  -57.6 -71.7   240   31   16  -2.3  -1.3   55.4 131.7    19.6      M    M
 38000  -59.6 -75.3   215   30   15   0.5   0.3   43.7 110.6    12.2      M    M
 36000  -56.2 -69.2   225   36   18   7.8   4.3   40.1 104.1    10.1      M    M
 34000  -51.6 -60.9   230   38   19   8.9   4.9   38.2 100.7     9.0      M    M
 32000  -45.7 -50.3   235   34   17   8.8   4.8   37.2  98.9     8.5      M    M
 30000  -40.4 -40.7   230   31   16   9.3   5.1   36.7  98.0     8.4      M    M
 29000  -38.0 -36.4   235   29   15   7.2   4.0   35.9  96.6     7.9      M    M
 28000  -35.3 -31.5   240   27   14   9.5   5.2   35.7  96.3     7.8      M    M
 27000  -32.7 -26.9   250   26   13   8.4   4.6   35.2  95.4     7.5      M    M
 26000  -30.2 -22.4   255   25   13   8.6   4.7   34.8  94.6     7.2      M    M
 25000  -28.0 -18.4   255   27   14   7.2   3.9   33.8  92.9     6.6      M    M
 24000  -26.0 -14.8   260   29   15   7.8   4.3   32.8  91.1     5.8      M    M
 23000  -23.7 -10.7   260   28   15   5.0   2.7   32.1  89.7     5.2      M    M
 22000  -21.3  -6.3   265   28   14   8.8   4.8   31.4  88.6     4.7      M    M
 21000  -18.6  -1.5   265   27   14   8.8   4.8   31.1  88.1     4.5      M    M
 20000  -16.0   3.2   265   27   14   8.8   4.9   30.8  87.4     4.3      M    M
 19500  -14.7   5.5   260   27   14   9.2   5.1   30.6  87.1     4.1      M    M
 19000  -13.6   7.5   255   28   14   6.0   3.3   30.2  86.3     3.8      M    M
 18500  -13.1   8.4   255   29   15  -0.3  -0.2   29.0  84.2     2.8      M    M
 18000  -12.9   8.8   255   31   16   2.9   1.6   27.5  81.5     1.6      M    M
 17500  -12.1  10.2   250   34   17   7.7   4.3   26.1  79.0     0.2      M    M
 17000  -10.9  12.4   250   36   18   8.1   4.5   25.8  78.5    -0.1   1047  5.3
 16500   -9.7  14.5   250   37   19   7.7   4.2   25.6  78.0    -0.3    997  5.1
 16000   -9.3  15.3   250   38   20   1.7   0.9   24.5  76.0    -1.4    970  4.9
 15500   -8.3  17.1   250   35   18   9.9   5.4   24.0  75.3    -1.8    924  4.7
 15000   -6.8  19.8   250   31   16   9.0   4.9   24.0  75.2    -1.9    867  4.4
 14500   -5.8  21.6   255   28   14   6.2   3.4   23.6  74.4    -2.3    821  4.2
 14000   -4.9  23.2   255   25   13   6.4   3.5   23.0  73.4    -2.9    778  4.0
 13500   -3.9  25.0   255   22   11   7.7   4.2   22.5  72.5    -3.4    735  3.7
 13000   -2.7  27.1   255   20   10   8.2   4.5   22.3  72.1    -3.6    683  3.5
 12500   -1.5  29.3   255   17    9   8.2   4.5   22.0  71.6    -3.9    632  3.2
 12000   -0.2  31.6   255   15    8   8.2   4.5   21.8  71.2    -4.1    580  2.9
 11500    1.0  33.8   255   13    7   8.2   4.5   21.5  70.8    -4.4    529  2.7
 11000    2.2  36.0   260   11    6   8.3   4.5   21.3  70.3    -4.6    477  2.4
 10500    3.4  38.1   255   10    5   6.7   3.7   21.0  69.8    -5.0    428  2.2
 10250    3.8  38.8   250    9    5   7.1   3.9   20.7  69.3    -5.3    408  2.1
 10000    4.4  39.9   245    8    4   8.3   4.5   20.6  69.0    -5.5    383  1.9
  9750    5.0  41.0   235    7    4   8.0   4.4   20.4  68.8    -5.6    358  1.8
  9500    5.5  41.9   230    6    3   8.1   4.4   20.3  68.6    -5.8    333  1.7
  9250    6.1  43.0   215    5    3   8.1   4.4   20.2  68.3    -5.9    308  1.6
  9000    6.7  44.1   200    5    3   8.0   4.4   20.1  68.1    -6.1    283  1.4
  8750    7.3  45.1   185    5    2   8.2   4.5   19.9  67.9    -6.2    259  1.3
  8500    7.9  46.2   165    4    2   7.6   4.2   19.8  67.6    -6.4    234  1.2
  8250    8.3  46.9   145    5    3   5.3   2.9   19.5  67.2    -6.7    212  1.1
  8000    8.6  47.5   130    6    3   4.1   2.3   19.1  66.5    -7.1    196  1.0
  7750    8.9  48.0   135    6    3   4.8   2.7   18.7  65.7    -7.6    180  0.9
  7500    9.2  48.6   140    7    4   2.2   1.2   18.3  64.9    -8.1    164  0.8
  7250    9.2  48.6   145    7    4  -0.1  -0.0   17.6  63.6    -8.8    157  0.8
  7000    9.2  48.6   150    8    4   0.4   0.2   16.9  62.3    -9.6    149  0.8
  6750    9.2  48.6   145    8    4   0.7   0.4   16.1  61.1   -10.3    142  0.7
  6500    9.4  48.9   135    9    4   5.4   3.0   15.6  60.1   -10.9    130  0.7
  6250    9.9  49.8   130    9    5   8.4   4.6   15.4  59.8   -11.1    106  0.5
  6000   10.5  50.9   120   10    5   7.7   4.2   15.3  59.5   -11.3     81  0.4
  5750   11.0  51.8   120    9    5   7.6   4.2   15.2  59.3   -11.5     57  0.3
  5500   11.6  52.9   120    8    4   8.6   4.7   15.0  59.0   -11.7     33  0.2
  5250   12.2  54.0   115    7    4   4.8   2.6   14.9  58.7   -11.9      9  0.0
  5000   12.1  53.8   115    6    3  -6.1  -3.3   14.1  57.3   -12.7      4  0.0

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           05/28/2015 at 0900 MDT          |       05/28/2015 at 1200 MDT
                                           |
K index... +23.0  LI... +272.1             | K index... -2.0  LI... +271.2
CAPE... +239.8  CIN... -16.8               | CAPE... +424.4  CIN... -6.0
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -57.4 -71.3  275  14  7   1.3   0.7 | -57.6 -71.7  275  15  8   1.2   0.6
 45000 -55.9 -68.6  275  22 11  -1.3  -0.7 | -56.2 -69.2  280  23 12  -1.1  -0.6
 40000 -57.9 -72.2  265  24 13  -1.2  -0.7 | -58.1 -72.6  280  31 16  -1.5  -0.8
 38000 -56.4 -69.5  265  24 13   3.9   2.1 | -56.1 -69.0  285  34 17   4.3   2.3
 36000 -54.1 -65.4  265  24 12   3.9   2.1 | -53.6 -64.5  285  36 19   4.3   2.3
 34000 -50.9 -59.6  265  25 13   7.7   4.2 | -50.0 -58.0  285  37 19   8.2   4.5
 32000 -45.7 -50.3  260  29 15   7.7   4.2 | -45.1 -49.2  285  36 19   8.2   4.5
 30000 -40.8 -41.4  260  30 15   8.7   4.8 | -40.3 -40.5  280  35 18   7.9   4.3
 29000 -38.2 -36.8  260  29 15   8.7   4.8 | -37.9 -36.2  275  35 18   7.9   4.3
 28000 -35.6 -32.1  255  29 15   8.7   4.8 | -35.6 -32.1  275  35 18   7.9   4.3
 27000 -33.0 -27.4  255  28 14   8.5   4.7 | -33.2 -27.8  270  34 17   8.0   4.4
 26000 -30.5 -22.9  255  27 14   8.5   4.7 | -30.2 -22.4  270  31 16   8.0   4.4
 25000 -27.9 -18.2  255  26 13   8.5   4.7 | -27.8 -18.0  265  29 15   8.0   4.4
 24000 -25.4 -13.7  255  25 13   7.8   4.3 | -25.4 -13.7  265  28 14   8.1   4.5
 23000 -23.1  -9.6  255  24 12   7.9   4.3 | -23.0  -9.4  265  27 14   8.1   4.5
 22000 -20.7  -5.3  260  22 11   7.9   4.4 | -20.5  -4.9  260  26 14   8.1   4.5
 21000 -18.5  -1.3  260  21 11   7.2   4.0 | -18.3  -0.9  260  26 13   6.9   3.8
 20000 -16.3   2.7  265  21 11   7.2   4.0 | -16.3   2.7  260  27 14   6.9   3.8
 19500 -15.3   4.5  270  20 10   7.2   4.0 | -15.3   4.5  265  27 14   6.9   3.8
 19000 -14.2   6.4  270  20 10   7.2   4.0 | -14.3   6.3  265  27 14   6.8   3.7
 18500 -13.2   8.2  275  20 10   6.1   3.3 | -13.3   8.1  265  26 14   6.4   3.5
 18000 -12.3   9.9  275  20 10   6.2   3.4 | -12.3   9.9  265  26 13   6.5   3.6
 17500 -11.4  11.5  275  19 10   5.6   3.1 | -11.4  11.5  265  24 13   5.8   3.2
 17000 -10.6  12.9  275  19 10   5.3   2.9 | -10.5  13.1  265  23 12   5.7   3.1
 16500  -9.8  14.4  275  19 10   5.5   3.0 |  -9.7  14.5  265  21 11   5.9   3.3
 16000  -9.0  15.8  275  20 10   6.2   3.4 |  -8.7  16.3  270  21 11   6.3   3.4
 15500  -8.1  17.4  275  20 10   6.2   3.4 |  -7.8  18.0  270  20 10   6.3   3.5
 15000  -6.7  19.9  270  21 11   6.6   3.6 |  -6.8  19.8  270  19 10   7.2   3.9
 14500  -5.7  21.7  270  21 11   6.7   3.7 |  -5.7  21.7  275  19 10   7.1   3.9
 14000  -4.7  23.5  270  21 11   7.3   4.0 |  -4.6  23.7  275  18 10   7.6   4.2
 13500  -3.7  25.3  270  21 11   7.3   4.0 |  -3.5  25.7  275  18  9   7.6   4.2
 13000  -2.6  27.3  270  21 11   7.5   4.1 |  -1.9  28.6  280  17  9   7.6   4.2
 12500  -1.5  29.3  270  20 10   7.5   4.1 |  -0.8  30.6  280  16  8   7.8   4.3
 12000  -0.5  31.1  270  19 10   7.2   3.9 |   0.3  32.5  280  15  8   8.1   4.5
 11500   0.5  32.9  270  17  9   7.2   4.0 |   1.4  34.5  280  13  7   8.3   4.5
 11000   1.6  34.9  270  16  8   7.3   4.0 |   2.5  36.5  285  12  6   7.6   4.2
 10500   2.6  36.7  275  14  7   6.6   3.6 |   3.6  38.5  285  11  6   5.1   2.8
 10250   3.0  37.4  275  13  7   4.8   2.6 |   3.8  38.8  285  10  5   5.2   2.8
 10000   3.4  38.1  275  13  7   7.4   4.0 |   4.4  39.9  285  10  5   9.8   5.4
  9750   4.1  39.4  275  12  6   9.6   5.3 |   5.1  41.2  285   9  5   9.9   5.4
  9500   4.8  40.6  275  11  6   8.8   4.8 |   5.7  42.3  285   8  4   9.0   5.0
  9250   5.4  41.7  275  11  6   7.2   4.0 |   6.3  43.3  285   8  4   6.9   3.8
  9000   5.9  42.6  275  10  5   7.5   4.1 |   6.8  44.2  285   7  4   7.4   4.0
  8750   6.5  43.7  275  10  5   8.8   4.8 |   7.3  45.1  285   6  3   8.2   4.5
  8500   7.1  44.8  275   9  5   8.1   4.4 |   7.9  46.2  285   6  3   8.4   4.6
  8250   7.7  45.9  275   8  4   7.5   4.1 |   8.5  47.3  285   5  3   9.1   5.0
  8000   8.2  46.8  280   7  4   7.1   3.9 |   9.1  48.4  285   5  3   9.1   5.0
  7750   8.7  47.7  280   6  3   7.0   3.8 |   9.7  49.5  285   5  2   9.1   5.0
  7500   9.2  48.6  280   6  3   6.9   3.8 |  10.4  50.7  285   5  2   9.8   5.4
  7250   9.7  49.5  280   5  2   6.7   3.7 |  11.1  52.0  285   4  2  10.4   5.7
  7000  10.1  50.2  275   4  2   6.8   3.7 |  11.9  53.4  280   4  2  10.1   5.6
  6750  10.6  51.1  275   3  2   7.9   4.3 |  12.6  54.7  280   4  2  10.5   5.7
  6500  11.3  52.3  270   3  1   9.8   5.4 |  13.4  56.1  280   4  2  10.9   6.0
  6250  12.0  53.6  270   2  1  10.8   5.9 |  14.3  57.7  280   4  2  11.5   6.3
  6000  12.8  55.0  260   2  1   9.2   5.0 |  15.1  59.2  280   4  2   9.6   5.3
  5750  13.4  56.1  260   2  1   9.6   5.3 |  15.8  60.4  280   4  2  12.2   6.7
  5500  14.2  57.6  260   2  1  11.8   6.5 |  16.9  62.4  280   4  2  16.7   9.2
  5250  15.0  59.0  260   2  1  10.0   5.5 |  18.0  64.4  280   4  2  13.2   7.2
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           05/28/2015 at 1500 MDT          |       05/28/2015 at 1800 MDT
                                           |
K index... +9.7  LI... +272.7              | K index... +24.7  LI... +271.4
CAPE... +50.3  CIN... -40.6                | CAPE... +120.1  CIN... -31.1
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -57.7 -71.9  280  15  7   1.1   0.6 | -58.3 -72.9  280  13  7   1.0   0.6
 45000 -56.4 -69.5  280  25 13  -0.4  -0.2 | -56.8 -70.2  285  21 11   0.4   0.2
 40000 -57.1 -70.8  285  40 20  -0.8  -0.4 | -56.2 -69.2  290  44 23   0.2   0.1
 38000 -55.1 -67.2  285  42 22   4.1   2.2 | -54.4 -65.9  290  47 24   3.5   1.9
 36000 -52.7 -62.9  285  44 23   4.1   2.2 | -52.4 -62.3  290  48 25   3.5   1.9
 34000 -49.3 -56.7  285  45 23   7.6   4.2 | -49.2 -56.6  285  48 24   7.4   4.0
 32000 -44.7 -48.5  280  44 23   7.6   4.2 | -44.8 -48.6  280  46 23   7.4   4.0
 30000 -40.0 -40.0  280  43 22   8.0   4.4 | -40.2 -40.4  280  43 22   8.2   4.5
 29000 -37.6 -35.7  280  43 22   8.0   4.4 | -37.7 -35.9  280  42 22   8.2   4.5
 28000 -35.2 -31.4  280  43 22   8.0   4.4 | -34.6 -30.3  280  41 21   8.2   4.5
 27000 -32.4 -26.3  275  42 21   7.2   3.9 | -32.3 -26.1  280  39 20   7.7   4.2
 26000 -30.2 -22.4  275  40 20   7.2   3.9 | -30.0 -22.0  280  38 19   7.7   4.2
 25000 -28.1 -18.6  275  38 19   7.2   4.0 | -27.7 -17.9  280  36 18   7.7   4.2
 24000 -25.8 -14.4  270  36 19   8.7   4.8 | -25.3 -13.5  280  35 18   8.0   4.4
 23000 -23.2  -9.8  270  35 18   8.7   4.8 | -22.9  -9.2  280  35 18   8.0   4.4
 22000 -20.6  -5.1  270  35 18   8.7   4.7 | -20.5  -4.9  280  36 19   8.0   4.4
 21000 -18.3  -0.9  270  34 17   6.7   3.6 | -18.5  -1.3  280  36 18   5.8   3.2
 20000 -16.3   2.7  270  32 17   6.6   3.6 | -16.9   1.6  280  35 18   5.7   3.1
 19500 -15.3   4.5  270  31 16   6.6   3.6 | -16.0   3.2  280  34 18   5.8   3.2
 19000 -14.3   6.3  270  31 16   6.3   3.5 | -15.2   4.6  280  33 17   6.1   3.4
 18500 -13.5   7.7  270  30 15   5.1   2.8 | -14.2   6.4  275  33 17   7.4   4.0
 18000 -12.7   9.1  275  29 15   5.1   2.8 | -13.1   8.4  275  32 16   7.3   4.0
 17500 -11.9  10.6  275  28 14   6.6   3.6 | -12.0  10.4  275  30 16   8.0   4.4
 17000 -10.9  12.4  275  27 14   6.8   3.7 | -10.9  12.4  270  29 15   8.1   4.4
 16500  -9.9  14.2  275  26 13   7.3   4.0 |  -9.7  14.5  265  27 14   8.1   4.4
 16000  -8.8  16.2  275  24 12   8.0   4.4 |  -8.5  16.7  265  26 13   8.1   4.4
 15500  -7.6  18.3  275  23 12   8.0   4.4 |  -7.4  18.7  265  25 13   8.1   4.4
 15000  -6.4  20.5  275  21 11   8.6   4.7 |  -6.2  20.8  260  23 12   8.3   4.6
 14500  -5.2  22.6  275  20 10   8.5   4.7 |  -5.0  23.0  260  22 12   8.3   4.6
 14000  -3.9  25.0  275  19 10   9.0   4.9 |  -3.7  25.3  260  21 11   7.9   4.3
 13500  -1.9  28.6  275  17  9   9.0   4.9 |  -2.0  28.4  265  19 10   7.9   4.3
 13000  -0.7  30.7  275  17  9   8.5   4.7 |  -0.8  30.6  270  17  9   8.0   4.4
 12500   0.6  33.1  275  16  8   8.5   4.7 |   0.4  32.7  275  16  8   8.0   4.4
 12000   1.8  35.2  280  15  8   8.4   4.6 |   1.6  34.9  285  14  7   7.8   4.3
 11500   3.0  37.4  280  14  7   8.4   4.6 |   2.7  36.9  300  14  7   7.8   4.3
 11000   4.3  39.7  280  13  7   8.2   4.5 |   3.8  38.8  310  13  7   7.5   4.1
 10500   5.5  41.9  280  12  6   4.6   2.5 |   5.0  41.0  315  14  7   5.1   2.8
 10250   5.7  42.3  280  12  6   5.3   2.9 |   5.2  41.4  320  14  7   6.1   3.3
 10000   6.4  43.5  280  11  6  10.6   5.8 |   5.9  42.6  325  14  7  10.1   5.6
  9750   7.1  44.8  280  11  6   9.4   5.2 |   6.6  43.9  325  14  7   9.2   5.1
  9500   7.8  46.0  280  10  5   8.9   4.9 |   7.2  45.0  330  15  7   9.0   4.9
  9250   8.4  47.1  280   9  5   6.8   3.8 |   7.8  46.0  330  15  8   8.1   4.4
  9000   8.9  48.0  280   8  4   7.6   4.2 |   8.4  47.1  330  15  8   9.1   5.0
  8750   9.5  49.1  285   8  4   8.8   4.8 |   9.1  48.4  330  15  8   9.9   5.5
  8500  10.1  50.2  285   7  3   8.5   4.7 |   9.8  49.6  330  15  8   9.7   5.3
  8250  10.7  51.3  285   6  3   8.3   4.6 |  10.5  50.9  330  15  8   9.6   5.2
  8000  11.2  52.2  285   6  3   9.4   5.1 |  11.2  52.2  330  15  8   9.6   5.2
  7750  11.9  53.4  285   6  3  10.4   5.7 |  11.9  53.4  330  15  8   9.5   5.2
  7500  12.7  54.9  280   6  3  10.0   5.5 |  12.7  54.9  330  15  8   9.9   5.4
  7250  13.4  56.1  280   6  3  10.0   5.5 |  13.4  56.1  330  15  8  10.4   5.7
  7000  14.1  57.4  280   6  3   9.8   5.4 |  14.2  57.6  330  15  8   9.9   5.4
  6750  14.9  58.8  280   5  3   9.9   5.4 |  14.9  58.8  330  15  8   9.7   5.3
  6500  15.6  60.1  280   5  3  10.9   6.0 |  15.7  60.3  330  15  8  10.6   5.8
  6250  16.5  61.7  280   5  3  12.0   6.6 |  16.5  61.7  330  15  8  11.7   6.4
  6000  17.3  63.1  280   5  3   9.4   5.2 |  17.3  63.1  330  14  7   9.6   5.3
  5750  18.0  64.4  280   5  3  11.4   6.3 |  18.0  64.4  330  14  7   9.4   5.1
  5500  19.1  66.4  280   5  3  16.6   9.1 |  18.8  65.8  330  14  7  11.6   6.4
  5250  20.2  68.4  280   5  3  13.1   7.2 |  19.6  67.3  330  13  7  10.1   5.5
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 07 min 00.001 sec
                   West Longitude: 108 deg 31 min 59.998 sec
                   Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Western Slope of
Colorado.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather prediction models
differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to data which appear
to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613



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