Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 271242
SWODY1
SPC AC 271240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL/S FL TODAY...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL ACCELERATE EWD TO N
FL BY THIS EVENING...AS A SEPARATE WAVE DIGS SEWD FROM MO/AR TO
AL/GA...WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS.  AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SEWD INTO N FL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND OFF THE SE FL COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER WA/ORE BY TONIGHT.

...CENTRAL/S FL TODAY...
THE REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAVE MOVED SEWD TO NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS 5-8 F LOWER ACROSS
CENTRAL FL...TO THE N OF THE WEAKENING CONVECTIVE BAND.  SOME
RECOVERY OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS EXPECTED TODAY SINCE SURFACE WINDS
ARE FROM THE S ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUD
BREAKS TO ALLOW SURFACE HEATING.  ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
ACROSS THE E/NE GULF TODAY...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO REACH THE
FL W COAST BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN
CLUSTERS/LINE SEGMENTS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD EWD OVER THE
CENTRAL/SRN PENINSULA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  THOUGH LAPSE RATES
WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STEEP...MLCAPE WILL RANGE FROM 1000-1500
J/KG IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS.  THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON.

..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 03/27/2015




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