Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 260050
SWODY1
SPC AC 260049

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Valid 260100Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
OK INTO SOUTHEAST KS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OK TO
NORTH CENTRAL MO...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL OK TO NORTHERN MO...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds will increase
in areal coverage from parts of northeast Oklahoma, southeast
Kansas, northwest Arkansas, and western Missouri this evening into
the overnight hours.

...Discussion...

Large-scale forcing for ascent appears to be approaching the I-35
corridor this evening, per satellite imagery.  Thunderstorms are
beginning to increase along the cold front from southeast KS to near
OKC and this trend is expected to continue as influence of upper
trough interacts with gradually moistening warm sector.  However,
00z soundings from OKC and FWD exhibit substantial mid-level drying
with PW values less than one inch.  Initial convection appears to be
entraining a bit of dry air and more significant upward growth may
be delayed until stronger ascent/mid-level moistening spreads east.
Given the steep lapse rates observed, large hail and damaging winds
are expected to be the primary threats as this frontal-induced
squall line matures over the next few hours.

..Darrow.. 04/26/2017

$$


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