Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 261249
SWODY1
SPC AC 261248

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0648 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS THROUGH THE MORNING.

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY COVERING MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND ERN CONUS WILL
DEAMPLIFY AND TREND TOWARDS A MORE NEGATIVE TILT AS AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES NEWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. COASTAL SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NNEWD ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD.
CONUS TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED TO THIS SURFACE CYCLONE AS IT
BRUSHES THE OUTER BANKS...OR ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHING SEWD
ACROSS S FL.

...OUTER BANKS/COASTAL NC...
12Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PLACE THE LOW NEAR ILM WITH ONLY MODERATE
PRESSURE FALLS NWD ACROSS COASTAL NC AND THE DELMARVA. AS SUCH...THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIGHT ALONG THE COAST
WITH LITTLE TO NO PENETRATION OF THE WARM SECTOR ONSHORE IN NC /WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE OUTER BANKS/. 12Z MHX SOUNDING REVEALED AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ELEVATED TSTMS BUT THE LACK OF
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT VERY MINIMAL.

...S FL PENINSULA...
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED THE COLD FRONT FROM JUST NW OF PBI SWWD TO
EYW. ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW TSTM ACTIVITY TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE
ALSO LIMITING ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..MOSIER.. 11/26/2014




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