Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS03 KWNS 300706
SWODY3
SPC AC 300705

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN LAKE MICHIGAN TO SERN
KS...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT
FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...SOUTHWEST ACROSS MISSOURI INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL MAY BE NOTED WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS.

...GREAT LAKES TO SRN KS...

LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE
MS VALLEY EARLY IN THE DAY3 PERIOD.  AT THE SFC...NAM IS
CONSIDERABLY MORE INTENSE WITH SFC LOW AS IT LIFTS FROM NRN MN INTO
NWRN ONTARIO...DEEPENING TO A 979MB PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY BY
02/12Z.  ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
DEEPENING...TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD NONETHELESS PROGRESS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES IN A SIMILAR FASHION TO THE NAM.  BY MID AFTERNOON
SFC WIND SHIFT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS WI...SWWD ACROSS EXTREME
ERN IA INTO SERN KS.  STRONG HEATING SHOULD BE NOTED ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...ESPECIALLY OVER KS WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO
THE LOWER 90S.  CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEAK FRONT WILL
DO SO WITHIN DEEP SWLY FLOW CHARACTERIZED BY SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR ON
THE ORDER OF 40KT.  ADDITIONALLY...RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
SLGT RISK REGION.  GIVEN THE EXPECTED SHEAR CONVECTION COULD
CERTAINLY ORGANIZE...WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS POSSIBLE.  MEAN FLOW
FAVORS EWD PROPAGATING SQUALL LINE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

..DARROW.. 08/30/2014




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