Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS03 KWNS 150658
SWODY3
SPC AC 150657

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS...AND THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS/WESTERN GREAT BASIN.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL
CONUS WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TRACKING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS ON THU AFTERNOON. A SURFACE FRONT/INVERTED
TROUGH SHOULD BE CENTERED FROM THE EDWARDS TO OZARK PLATEAUS. IN THE
WEST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD REACH THE PACIFIC NW THU EVENING.

...SRN PLAINS TO THE GULF COAST...
BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF TSTM
POTENTIAL DURING THE PERIOD GIVEN MODEL SPREAD IN THE HANDLING OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE...ALONG WITH A PRECEDING CP AIR
MASS INTRUSION ACROSS THE GULF. NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH OVER
THE SRN PLAINS...THE NAM DEVELOPS WEAK BUOYANCY WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF
SUGGEST MINIMAL TO NO CAPE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTENING MAY OCCUR TO YIELD A FEW TSTMS N OF MORE PRONOUNCED
CAPPING. FARTHER E TOWARDS THE CNTRL GULF COAST...MODEST LOW-LEVEL
WAA MAY SUPPORT ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THU NIGHT.
HOWEVER...GREATER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN OFFSHORE
IN THE NRN GULF.

OVER CNTRL/SRN FL...ANOTHER DAY OF AIR MASS MODIFICATION SHOULD
RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD DIURNAL CONVECTION /FROM ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE/ COMPARED TO D2. WEAK SHEAR/MARGINAL HIGH-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD MITIGATE ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL.

...SIERRA NV/NWRN GREAT BASIN...
FAVORABLE TIMING OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WITH THE PEAK OF DIURNAL
HEATING SHOULD FOSTER ISOLATED CONVECTION FORMING OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN. BUOYANCY SHOULD BE RATHER LIMITED...BUT STEEP TROPOSPHERIC
LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A FEW TSTMS.

..GRAMS.. 04/15/2014




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