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000
WTPZ32 KNHC 192031
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM POLO ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014
200 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...POLO RESUMES A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 108.2W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF POLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.2 WEST. POLO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND A GENERAL
NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...POLO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TODAY...AND PASS SOUTH OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE
NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 988 MB...29.18 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA
IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY POLO WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON
SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND
RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...POLO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES NEAR THE COAST OF JALISCO...ISLAS MARIAS AND SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR IN WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
RAINS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




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