Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 202342
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA
NEAR 9N13W TO 6N19W TO 5N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS FROM THAT POINT TO
6N36W TO 6N54W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT FROM 5N-11N
E OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE FL/GA BORDER NEAR
31N85W WITH AXIS THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF. WITH THIS...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATES THE BASIN. AT UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS W MEXICO. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NW GULF AND COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM
23N81W TO 20N85W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS POINT TO
17N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 85 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT PREVAIL W OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE TRADES OF 10 TO 15 KT PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED SW OF
JAMAICA NEAR 17N79W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN 66W-83W. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED W OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N63W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
E CARIBBEAN AND W ATLANTIC FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 55W-65W. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE WHILE CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE NW BASIN.
ALSO...THE CONVECTION RELATED TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE
E CARIBBEAN WILL SPREAD W AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT CARIBBEAN/ATLANTIC WATERS.

...HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER AND SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED SW OF JAMAICA EXTENDS THROUGH THE
WHOLE ISLAND. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN TO SPREAD W ENHANCING CONVECTION.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N63W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR
25N76W TO CUBA NEAR 23N80W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM
OF THE BOUNDARY. TO THE E...A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N44W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND
FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 19N-31N BETWEEN
20W-70W. IN THE FAR E ATLANTIC...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HIGH AND A CYCLONE NEAR 36N16W IS
PRODUCING NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT N OF 21N...E OF 32W. AT
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED W OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 13N63W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE E
CARIBBEAN AND W ATLANTIC FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 55W-65W. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO WEAKEN. THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING
CONVECTION E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



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