Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 300559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT NOW...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA...FROM 11.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W...AND THOSE
GALE-FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS. SEA
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 12 FEET TO 16 FEET. PLEASE
READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W FROM 13N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. ITCZ-RELATED
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS NEARBY.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N56W 10N57W 7N58W...
MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE 8N TO 15N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N61W 14N64W
10N65W...MOVING WESTWARD 30 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 18N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN
60W AND 70W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND...ALONG 83W/84W...FROM 17N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 TO 25 KNOTS. IT PASSES THROUGH
EASTERN HONDURAS...EASTERN NICARAGUA...AND CENTRAL COSTA RICA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N
BETWEEN 84W AND 86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE COASTAL
PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS
REACHING THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF COSTA RICA ALONG 10N
ALSO.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MAURITANIA
NEAR 21N17W TO 14N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N24W TO 8N30W
5N40W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2N52W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG WITHIN 120
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N18W 7N28W 5N45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AREA OF THE U.S.A. TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS...LOUISIANA...AND MISSISSIPPI.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 23N87W AT THE NORTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN A RADIUS OF 120 NM TO 150 NM AWAY
FROM THE 23N87W CYCLONIC CENTER.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW IS MOVING FROM MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. 600 MB TO 800 MB LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW IS MOVING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH HAS
EMERGED FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND NOW IT IS ALONG 23N90W
21N92W 18N93W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE IN THE WATERS FROM 22N SOUTHWARD FROM
93W WESTWARD. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM
24N NORTHWARD. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND A
1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N87W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 23N87W AT THE NORTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN A RADIUS OF 120 NM TO 150 NM AWAY
FROM THE 23N87W CYCLONIC CENTER. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS FROM 17N SOUTHWARD...MOVING
FROM CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS.

EASTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM 350 MB TO 500 MB TO 800 MB...SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES SOUTHWARD. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 17N66W 20N60W 26N57W.

TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. PLEASE REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR DETAILS.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SURROUNDS
HISPANIOLA...THANKS TO THE 32N67W TO 17N69W TROUGH.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD THE CURRENT
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH WILL PASS DIRECTLY ACROSS
HISPANIOLA. A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED INVERTED TROUGH
EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE TO A POSITION THAT IS DIRECTLY ON TOP OF
HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM 6 HOURS INTO
THE FORECAST PERIOD UNTIL 30 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SECOND DAY. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE START OF THE FIRST 24-
HOUR PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA
DURING THE REST OF THE FIRST DAY OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR DAY TWO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO
25N67W 19N68W...ACROSS THE EASTERNMOST SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 17N69W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN
CLUSTERS...WITHIN A 30 TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 30N77W...29N71W...
26N75W...24N77W...AND 24N80W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 37N24W TO
32N26W 27N34W AND 24N42W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO 29N40W AND 28N50W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM
TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N26W TO 28N40W
26N50W AND 27N60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N20W TO 28N32W...TO A 1025 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N40W...27N67W AND TO THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N76W TO
LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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