Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 311751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Tropical wave is over the eastern tropical Atlantic from 12N19W
to 03N20W moving W at 15 kt. The wave is on the leading edge of
a moist area according to CIRA layer precipitable water imagery.
An area of dry Saharan Air is west of the wave with dust.
Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis.

Tropical wave is over the central tropical Atlantic from 14N45W
to 04N46W moving W at 10 kt. The wave is embedded in a moderate
moist environment from the surface to 700 mb according to CIRA
layer precipitable water imagery. Isolated moderate convection
is within 120 nm of the wave axis.

Tropical wave is over the western tropical Atlantic from 13N58W
to 03N58W moving W at 10 kt. The wave is embedded in a high
moist environment from the surface to 850 mb according to CIRA
layer precipitable water imagery. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 06N-10N between 55W-65W.

Tropical wave is over the western Caribbean from 16N82W to
06N83W moving W at 20 kt. The wave is embedded in a moderate
moist environment from the surface to 850 mb according to CIRA
layer precipitable water imagery. Isolated moderate convection
is within 90 nm of the wave axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough is over western Africa and enters the
Atlantic near 14N17W. The ITCZ extends from 07N21W to 03N30W to
07N45W. The ITCZ resumes west of a tropical wave at 08N48W and
extends to 08N57W.  Besides the convection mentioned on the
tropical wave section, scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 04N-06N between 23W-26W, and from 06N-10N
between 49W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1016 mb high is centered over the north central Gulf of Mexico
near 27N87W. 5-10 kt anticyclonic winds are over the Gulf. Radar
imagery shows isolated moderate convection over South Florida
and the SE Gulf south of 27N and east of 83W. The remainder of
the Gulf has fair weather. In the upper levels, a ridge is over
the western Gulf west of 87W. An upper level low is centered
over the N Bahamas near 27N77W. Strong subsidence is over most
of the Gulf. Little change is forecast for the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean and another is
approaching the eastern Caribbean. See above. A 1008 mb low is
centered over N colombia near 11N74W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is over the SW Caribbean from 08N-12N
between 73W-79W. Further north, isolated moderate convection is
over eastern Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico. 10-20
kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest winds
along the coast of N Colombia. In the Upper Levels, an upper
level trough is over the Caribbean west of 77W. An upper level
ridge is over the remainder of the Caribbean. Expect the
tropical waves to move west over the next 24 hours with
convection. Also expect more upper level diffluence over the
eastern Caribbean Sea with convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently isolated moderate convection is over Hispaniola mostly
due to upper level diffluence. Expect little change over the
next 24 hours.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is over the western Atlantic from 30N74W to
25N75W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. A cold
front is over the central Atlantic from 31N31W to 28N40W to
31N54W. A prefrontal trough extends from 29N33W to 26N46W.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front and trough.  Of
note in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over
the N Bahamas near 27N77W. Diffluence east of the center is
producing scattered moderate convection from 21N-30N between 65W-
73W. Expect in 24 hours for the cold front to reach 31N25W with
showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa



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