Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 292335
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure associated with the remnants of Erika is
moving quickly west-northwestward across the Florida Straits this
evening. There are no signs of redevelopment at this time, and
upper-level winds should remain unfavorable for tropical cyclone
formation. Regardless of this system`s prospects for regeneration,
locally heavy rains and gusty winds are expected to spread across
portions of the western Bahamas, south Florida and the Keys tonight
and Sunday. This activity should spread northwestward and then
northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico later Sunday and Monday.
Additional information on this system can be found in marine
forecasts and local forecast products issued by the National Weather
Service and the meteorological services of Cuba and the Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Satellite pictures indicate that thunderstorm activity associated
with a low pressure area that recently moved off of the west coast
of Africa is becoming better organized, and a tropical depression
could be forming. If this development trend continues, advisories
would likely be initiated tonight or Sunday.  This system is
expected to move northwest toward the Cape Verde Islands at 10 to
15 mph, and interests in those islands should closely monitor the
progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain



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