Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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857 FXUS65 KABQ 012101 CCA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 301 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 202 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024 Critical fire weather across eastern NM today gives way to cooler temperatures and higher moisture starting Thursday, with reinforcing moisture advancing to the east slopes of the central mountain chain Friday and Saturday. Low clouds and isolated patchy fog could result each morning, but the real highlight is an increased chance for afternoon thunderstorms over east-central NM Saturday afternoon and evening. This moisture is shunted back into TX Sunday with the return of strong, dry and warm southwesterly flow. Strong winds and critical fire weather are expected to spread across the state again Sunday afternoon. Cooler temperatures and continued windy conditions begin next work week, with a steady warming trend Tuesday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 202 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024 Very dry and warm southwest winds have spread across the region today ahead of an approaching upper level trough. Winds will then taper off after sunset in most areas except the higher terrain. A backdoor cold front is still on target to surge south thru eastern NM overnight. The front is expected to push thru Clayton by 2am, Tucumcari around 4am, then Clovis by 6am. Dewpoints will rise behind the front with low stratus possible near Tucumcari close to sunrise. The Pacific portion of this front will enter the Four Corners region by sunrise then spread into the RGV thru late morning. This is an exceptionally dry airmass with dewpoints at or below zero possible. Northwest winds will become breezy for the western half of NM while the backdoor cold front washes out across eastern NM. Just enough shear and instability may be available across far northeast NM by the afternoon to support some showers over Union County. The front across eastern NM will push westward Friday night with deepening boundary layer moisture and potential for widespread low stratus across the plains. Patchy fog is possible near the TX border as well but NBM visibility probs of <5 miles are still <25% at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 202 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024 Friday morning begins the long term period with a backdoor front having advanced to the east slopes of the central mountain chain. An influx of cooler temperatures and higher moisture will result in a bank of low clouds across eastern NM and perhaps a few isolated spots of patchy fog in the highlands. Southwest flow will push this boundary back toward TX in the afternoon before a reinforcing backdoor front swashes cooler temperatures and higher moisture back to the central mountain chain Friday night through Saturday morning. Confidence is growing this push will advance through the gaps of the central mountain chain producing a strong east canyon wind at Santa Fe and ABQ, gusting 25 to 35 mph. The suite of numerical model guidance has come into better agreement about the evolution of the synoptic and mesoscale setup regarding convective potential over eastern NM Saturday afternoon and evening. The ECMWF in particular has trended sharply toward the GFS solution of a deeper closed low near the PacNW while the reinforcing backdoor cold front advances further south and west through eastern NM. This will place the convergent boundary between this cold front and Gulf moisture advancing northward from TX somewhere from Clovis to Hobbs Saturday afternoon. Convective initiation would favor this convergent area Saturday afternoon with a few pulse severe storms possible. Model solutions also depict outflow boundaries from this activity pushing back westward through eastern NM Saturday night and to the gaps of the central mountain chain Sunday morning. Secondary showers and convective activity is possible along these outflow boundaries across eastern NM Saturday night as well. The aforementioned H5 closed low advances over the Great Basin region Sunday afternoon bringing a strong jet max and a dry slot of strong southwesterly winds invading western and central NM, pushing the low-level moisture across eastern NM back to TX. Windy conditions will likely interrupt any outdoor activities Sunday afternoon, while blowing dust will also be likely in favored spots through western and central NM. The trough axis and associated Pacific cold front advances eastward across NM Sunday night and Monday morning with some hope for light precipitation and high elevation snow reaching the northern mountains along the CO border. Windy conditions remain favored area wide Monday and Tuesday with NM remaining at the base of a large synoptic troughing pattern over the western CONUS. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 AM MDT Wed May 1 2024 Southwest winds will strengthen this afternoon with gusts of 25 to 35 kt common at terminals by 20Z. An upper level trough will slide into the area tonight with increasing turbulence along the central mt chain. A backdoor cold front will then slide south into eastern NM with a northerly wind shift and MVFR low cig development from near KCAO to KTCC aft 09Z. Confidence is not high enough to place BKN cigs at KTCC at this time. A Pacific cold front will also enter northwest NM around sunrise with a northwest wind shift to the RGV thru late Friday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 202 PM MDT Wed May 1 2024 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING... Critical fire weather conditions have developed over eastern NM this afternoon and will continue through early this evening. A backdoor cold front sliding south down the plains will provide much higher humidity overnight. This airmass will slosh around over eastern NM thru Friday followed by a stronger backdoor cold front for Saturday. Periods of low clouds, patchy fog, and some showers and storms are expected to impact eastern NM thru Sunday. Meanwhile, central and western NM will remain very dry and breezy with marginal critical fire weather thru the weekend. A potentially significant fire growing pattern may develop Sunday through Tuesday with widespread strong winds, very low humidity, warm temperatures and unstable conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 39 70 38 75 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 32 68 29 72 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 35 66 36 71 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 33 71 34 73 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 38 67 36 69 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 33 72 34 75 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 38 69 37 72 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 46 73 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 41 69 40 71 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 33 76 34 78 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 47 79 48 81 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 31 62 31 66 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 48 68 43 70 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 40 69 40 70 / 0 0 0 5 Cerro/Questa.................... 37 63 40 65 / 0 0 0 5 Red River....................... 30 60 30 62 / 0 0 0 10 Angel Fire...................... 26 61 24 63 / 0 0 0 10 Taos............................ 32 69 32 72 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 38 69 35 69 / 0 0 0 10 Espanola........................ 42 76 39 78 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 46 71 44 73 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 42 74 41 75 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 52 76 49 78 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 50 78 46 80 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 48 80 46 83 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 48 77 48 80 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 45 80 44 83 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 49 78 46 81 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 43 79 44 82 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 45 79 46 82 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 42 79 44 82 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 51 73 46 76 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 47 77 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 50 82 50 85 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 47 68 45 70 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 48 72 43 74 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 46 73 39 75 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 36 74 36 76 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 41 70 37 71 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 46 72 39 74 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 42 72 40 75 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 51 77 49 79 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 47 71 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 40 67 36 67 / 0 20 10 20 Raton........................... 41 73 35 72 / 0 5 5 10 Springer........................ 41 73 36 72 / 0 5 5 10 Las Vegas....................... 41 71 38 72 / 0 0 0 5 Clayton......................... 45 70 42 69 / 0 20 20 20 Roy............................. 44 72 42 70 / 0 10 10 10 Conchas......................... 47 80 45 78 / 0 0 10 10 Santa Rosa...................... 47 77 42 75 / 0 0 5 5 Tucumcari....................... 48 77 45 77 / 0 0 10 10 Clovis.......................... 52 80 49 78 / 0 0 5 10 Portales........................ 50 83 49 83 / 0 0 5 10 Fort Sumner..................... 48 81 46 81 / 0 0 5 10 Roswell......................... 55 88 53 88 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 51 81 48 83 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 49 81 47 82 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-121-123- 125-126. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...42