568
AXNT20 KNHC 071003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue May 7 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 08N21W. The
ITCZ extends from 08N21W to 01N35W and to 01N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is present south of 07N and west of 17W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The Bermuda subtropical ridge continues to influence the Gulf of
Mexico, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. Fresh ESE
winds are noted off northern Yucatan. Seas in these waters are 4-7
ft. Moderate SE winds and seas of 3-6 ft are prevalent over much
of the remainder of the basin. However, light to gentle winds and
slight seas are found in the north of 26N and east of 85W.

Haze due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is evident
in the SW and west-central Gulf.

For the forecast, low pressure extending from north-central Mexico
into the southern U.S. plains will continue to draw in mainly
fresh SE winds across much of the Gulf into Thu night. Locally
strong winds are likely to pulse nightly through late week off
the northern and western Yucatan Peninsula. Haze due to
agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is evident in the SW and
west-central Gulf. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move off
the Texas coast into the northwest Gulf Thu night, shift
southeast, then slow down and weaken further as extends from South
Florida to Veracruz, Mexico, by late Sat.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A persistent upper level trough extends from the western Atlantic
across Cuba and into the NW Caribbean, and continues to enhance
the development of showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
Greater Antilles and surrounding Atlantic waters S of 23N. The
trough will gradually weaken and move farther northeast of the
area, but atmospheric conditions will remain favorable for
convection capable of producing gusty winds and frequent lightning
early this week. Locally heavy rainfall continues to bring a
threat of flooding in the islands. See local weather advisories
for more information. Convection is also present in the SW
Caribbean, especially within 120 nm of central Panama.

High pressure centered over the western Atlantic, near Bermuda,
supports fresh easterly trade winds in the south-central
Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Moderate to locally
fresh easterly breezes are found in the north-central and eastern
Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 3-5 ft in the area
described. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas are
prevalent.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the western
Atlantic will support moderate to fresh trade winds over the
south-central and SE Caribbean through late week. Meanwhile,
expect pulses of fresh to strong E winds mainly at night across
the Gulf of Honduras starting Thu night, between the high pressure
and lower pressure over the western Gulf. Gentle to moderate
winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The SW North Atlantic is dominated by a 1022 mb high pressure
system near Bermuda. The aforementioned upper level trough is
enhancing the development of convection south of 23N. Generally
dry conditions are found elsewhere. Moderate easterly winds and
seas of 4-6 ft are evident south of 25N and west of 55W. Moderate
southerly winds and moderate seas are present west of 75W.

Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N29W to 19N50W, the
continues as a shear line to the Leeward Islands. Moderate to
fresh W-NW winds and seas of 7-11 ft are found west of the cold
front to 50W and north of 26N. The highest seas are occurring near
31N45W. A broad subtropical ridge centered off NW Spain dominates
the rest of the basin. The pressure gradient between the
aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in NW Africa results in
fresh to locally strong NE winds north of 22N and east of 20W.
Seas in the area described are 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure centered north of
Bermuda will support moderate to fresh E winds south of 23N today.
These winds will diminish as the ridge shifts southward to 28N
into late week. Meanwhile, large N swell associated with low
pressure well north of the region over the north central Atlantic
will move through the waters north of 27N and east of 58W today.
Looking ahead, expect fresh SW winds off northeast Florida
starting Wed night as the high pressure shifts southeast ahead of
a cold front moving off the Carolinas.

$$
Konarik