Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 260517
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Mar 26  2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0517 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Swell Event: Seas, generated by a deepening
low pressure system located NW of Bermuda, are propagating into
the Atlantic forecast waters building seas to 12 to 16 ft
roughly N of 26N between 64W and 75W. This swell event will
persist tonight and Tue, with seas building up to 19 ft late
tonight into Tue morning. The low pressure will begin to move
slowly SE and weaken, crossing into the Atlantic forecast region
Tue and gradually becoming stationary near 25N60W on Thu, then
dissipating. The large NE swell W of 70W will persist through
Wed morning before gradually subsiding. Large NW to N swell will
build southward across the waters E of 70W through Tue, then
slowly subside Wed through Thu.

North-Central Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: The pressure gradient
between a ridge across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida
and a low pressure system over Texas and the western Gulf
supports southerly winds reaching gale force over the north-
central Gulf and rough to very rough seas. These winds and rough
seas will diminish early Tue through Tue night ahead of the
advancing cold front moving off the Texas coast.

South Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between
the ridge across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and two surface
troughs one over eastern Mexico and the other one over Yucatan
Peninsula, and an approaching cold front off the Texas coast are
supporting southerly gale force winds over the central Bay of
Campeche. Seas in the area of this winds will build to 11 ft
overnight. As the cold front continues to progress SE during the
the overnight hours the pressure gradient will relax. Therefore,
winds will decrease to strong by Tue morning. Seas will subside
below 8 ft my Tue mid morning.

Mariners should monitor these hazardous marine conditions and
adjust their routes accordingly.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Guinea/Sierra
Leone border and continues southward to near 00N20W. The ITCZ
extends from 00N20W to 01S33W to the coast of Brazil near 02N47W.
Scattered moderate convection is found within 200 nm along the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the north-central and southern
Gulf of Mexico. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above
for more information.

A cold front is moving off the coast of Texas. Recent
scatterometer data revealed moderate to fresh NW to N winds
behind the cold front. A ridge over the eastern U.S. extends
southwestward across Florida and the eastern Gulf while a low
pressure system dominates the western Gulf. This pattern
supports fresh to strong SE to S winds across most of the waters
E of 93W, with winds reaching gale force across the north-
central Gulf and over the Bay of Campeche. Seas are 8 to 14 ft N
of 21N between 85W and 95W, and 5 to 8 ft elsewhere, except
across the offshore waters of W Florida, and W of the Yucatan
peninsula where seas are generally 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, S to SE winds reaching gale force and rough to
very rough seas are ongoing across the north-central Gulf, ahead
of a cold front moving into the Texas coastal waters. These
winds and rough seas will diminish early Tue through Tue night
ahead of the advancing cold front. The front will weaken as it
moves southeastward and briefly stalls from the Florida
Panhandle to western Bay of Campeche by early Wed, then will
move southeast of the Gulf by Thu evening. Looking ahead, expect
fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas over mainly
the south-central and southeast Gulf behind the front late Thu
and Fri, as high pressure builds across the basin and low
pressure deepens off the Carolinas. Winds and seas will diminish
again across the Gulf into Sat as the high pressure moves
eastward across the northern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong E to SE winds persist over the northwest
Caribbean between high pressure just north of the area and a
trough extending from Haiti across Jamaica into Honduras. Light
to gentle winds are noted over the central Caribbean while
gentle to moderate E to SE winds are seen over the eastern
Caribbean and the Lesser Antilles on the SW periphery of a
strong high pressure system that dominates most of the east and
central Atlantic. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across the NW Caribbean,
with the highest seas in the Yucatan Channel. Seas of 2 to 5 ft
are elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast, expect fresh to strong E to SE winds to
persist through Tue over the northwest Caribbean, between high
pressure well north of the Bahamas and a trough extending from
Haiti to Jamaica to northeast Nicaragua. A cold frontal system
entering the Gulf of Mexico tonight will move through the
Yucatan Channel and into the NW Caribbean Thu night then
dissipate. Large N swell will reach the Atlantic Passages of the
NE and E Caribbean late Tue and persist through early Thu before
subsiding. Looking ahead, fresh to strong NE winds will develop
across the Windward Passage Fri into Sat as high pressure builds
north of the region behind the next Atlantic cold front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A swell event dominates the Western Atlantic NE of the Bahamas.
Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more
information.

A cold front extending from just E of Bermuda to eastern
Dominican Republic. Scattered moderate convection is depicted
north of 30N along the front. A pre-frontal trough runs from
28N61W to just E of Puerto Rico. Scattered moderate convection
is depicted from 21N to 31N between 59W and 62W in association
with the pre-frontal trough. A ridge is noted behind the front
and extends southward across Florida and the Bahamas into Cuba.
The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the
influence of a strong high pressure center of 1036 mb located W
of the Azores near 39N38W. Fresh to strong NW to N winds are in
the wake of the front N of 26N with seas of 10 to 16 ft N and E
of the Bahamas. Ahead of the front fresh to strong SE winds are
found N of 25N with seas 9 to 11 ft. Similar wind speeds and
seas of 8 to 11 ft are N of 20N under the influence of the
aforementioned strong high pressure. Moderate to locally fresh
trade winds dominate the tropical Atlantic with seas of 5 to
9ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
continue to move eastward overnight and reach from 31N61W to NW
Puerto Rico by morning, then weaken considerably as it moves E-
SE across the regional Atlantic E of 60W and adjacent NE
Caribbean waters through early Wed. Associated low pressure NW
of Bermuda will begin to move slowly SE and weaken, crossing
into the area Atlantic waters Tue and gradually becoming
stationary near 25N61W on Thu, then dissipating. Fresh to
locally strong N to NE winds and large NE to N swell continue
behind the front. A narrow high pressure ridge will build
southward into the Bahamas tonight through Wed leading to
diminishing winds. Large NE swell will build southward, W of
70W, through Wed before gradually subsiding. Large NW to N swell
will build southward across the waters E of 70W through Tue
night, then slowly subside Wed through Thu. Fresh to strong SE
winds and large seas will persist across the far NE waters
through Thu. A new cold front will enter the NW waters Thu and
reach from Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Fri afternoon, and from
31N to central Hispaniola by Sat morning.

$$
KRV


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