Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FGUS73 KBIS 062101
ESFBIS
NDC015-059-081800-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
301 PM CST Wed Mar 6 2024

...MISSOURI RIVER IS ONCE AGAIN MAKING ICE...

Given the recent cold weather, the Missouri River has again been
forming ice below Garrison Dam. Thus far, ice has filled the
recently cleared portion of the Missouri River from roughly Apple
Creek Wildlife Management Area to about three-fourths of a mile
upstream of where 12th street southeast turns into Oahe Bend. This
would roughly be equal to a little less than five miles of new ice
in the river.

The upstream edge of immobile ice as of Wednesday morning was
roughly three and a half miles downstream of Fort Abraham Lincoln
and Fox Island. While the future rate of ice formation is difficult
to predict, forecast overnight lows in the single digits for both
Thursday and Friday mornings will continue to encourage ice
formation. It should be expected that the upstream edge of
continuous ice on the river will migrate upstream. Based on how much
ice has already been put in place, it is possible that the upstream
edge of continuous ice will reach the Fox Island area before warmer
weather enters the area on Friday. By late Saturday, warmer weather
will once again reverse this process and start removing ice.

Importantly, pre-ice river levels were about 3.5 feet below that
observed prior to last week`s ice jam due to already planned lower
releases out of Garrison Dam. This suggests that a return to water
levels experienced in late February is not likely.

$$

Schlag
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