Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX
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906 FXUS64 KBRO 051736 AAB AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1236 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 308 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Latest satellite imagery shows a large MCS over central Texas. Daytime heating combined with the outflow drifting southward from the MCS may lead to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the Northern Ranchlands, later today. The latest CAMs suggests that some of this activity will develop upstream and move into portions of the Rio Grande Plains and the Brush Country late this afternoon into the early evening. Will keep POPS/rain chances north of the populated portions of the Rio Grande Valley for today where the airmass will be more unstable. SPC has the Northern Ranchlands in a general thunderstorm outlook for today and tonight. Otherwise, the main event continues to be the above normal temperatures for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Highs today will generally range from the low to mid 90s, except for the 80s near the coast. Mostly cloudy skies this morning should become partly sunny later this morning into the afternoon before clouds return again for this evening. Low temperatures tonight will only fall into the mid to upper 70s. Monday will be very warm to hot with highs in well into the 90s, except for the 80s near the coast. No rainfall is forecast for Monday. Moderate seas will continue to produce a Moderate Risk of rip currents at the local beaches today through Monday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Saturday) Issued at 308 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Heat remains the primary concern, but a positive change is anticipated towards the end of the period. The repeated approach and intrusion of a dryline into Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will produce increasingly more intense daytime high temperatures in the Tuesday through Thursday time frame. Established HEAT ADVISORY criteria is likely to be met, and exceeded, in this 72-hour period, especially within the five easternmost counties (Hidalgo, Brooks, Cameron, Willacy, Kenedy) of the BRO CWFA. Fortunately, relief will arrive on Friday, and especially on Saturday, courtesy of the Friday passage of a weak cold front from the north. Although little to no chance of precipitation is forecast for Friday, a better shot of widespread isolated showers and thunderstorms will be on tap for Saturday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 MVFR ceilings are expected to be the main trend for the TAF cycle at all TAF sites. While some breaks in the ceilings will allow for VFR ceilings for short periods of time, they are not expected to last very long. Light southeasterly winds are expected to continue through the period as well. && .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 308 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Moderate southeast winds and moderate seas will prevail along the lower Texas Coast. Small craft should exercise caution conditions will occur at times. (Monday Night through Saturday) An enhanced pressure gradient over the western Gulf of Mexico, followed by the Friday passage of a weak cold front, will produce slightly adverse to adverse marine conditions along the Lower Texas Coast through the period. Small Craft Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory will be needed to account for the breezy to strong winds and moderate to rough seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 89 77 91 78 / 10 10 0 0 HARLINGEN 91 75 93 75 / 10 10 0 0 MCALLEN 93 78 95 78 / 10 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 93 76 96 75 / 20 10 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 77 83 78 / 10 10 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 86 75 88 76 / 10 10 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...63-KC LONG TERM....66-Tomaselli AVIATION...64-Katz