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000
FXUS61 KCLE 210814
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
414 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control of the weather through Monday
night. A low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes on Tuesday,
lifting a warm front across the area Tuesday morning followed by
a cold front Tuesday night. Troughing lingers behind this system
on Wednesday before high pressure returns on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Generally quiet weather for the near term. A vort max and
subtle surface trough axis will move through this morning.
Can`t entirely rule out the combination of these features
picking up a sprinkle or flurry off of Lake Erie into far
Northeast OH or Northwest PA this morning, though a dry airmass
should preclude any measurable precip so no POPs for it.
Otherwise, another subtle low to mid-level trough axis moves
through early to mid afternoon. It has remained mostly cloudy
overnight and will remain mostly cloudy for most of today as
these features move through. Confluence aloft behind the trough
axis this afternoon should allow for a clearing trend from
northwest to southeast later this afternoon into this evening,
with the loss of heating near sunset further aiding in clearing
skies into tonight. The eastern lakeshore should also begin
clearing a bit sooner this afternoon as a lake shadow develops.
Expect partly to mostly clear conditions to then persist tonight
and Monday, though likely with enough low-level moisture for a
decent cumulus field to develop Monday afternoon.

Highs today will rebound a bit from Saturday, ranging from the
upper 40s to near 50 in far Northeast OH and Northwest PA to the
mid to upper 50s along the I-75 corridor. Lows tonight will
generally range from the low to mid 30s inland to the upper 30s
to near 40 along the immediate lakeshore. We will see a more
traditional radiational cooling setup tonight so expect some
variance, with rural areas and more sheltered / lower spots
cooling more (some typical cold spots likely getting below
freezing) while urban areas and those on hilltops cool a bit
less. Highs on Monday will range from the mid to upper 50s in
Northwest PA to the low to mid 60s in Ohio. Winds will be fairly
tranquil this period, with some gusts to 20-25 MPH possible
this afternoon in Northwest OH and near the lakeshore farther
east. Gusts Monday afternoon may reach 20 MPH in Northwest OH.

More expansive cloud cover than expected kept temperatures a few
degrees warmer than forecasted overnight into this morning and
has significantly limited frost potential. Canceled a portion of
the Frost Advisory. A patch of clearing currently along the
western lakeshore down towards Medina County has allowed some
sites to cool into the mid to upper 30s with light winds. Parts
of Northwest PA cleared earlier in the night for a time and are
as cool as 33 to 36 degrees per personal weather stations. Kept
parts of the advisory going for now for those reasons but
canceled other areas that haven`t cleared/cooled and don`t have
a chance to. Even where the advisory is still active any frost
will be on the patchy side. A much more traditional radiational
cooling / frost setup for tonight into Monday morning, assuming
we actually manage to clear the clouds (we should have a better
chance with large scale subsidence behind a departing
shortwave). Winds will be light and should decouple across most
of the area, save for perhaps a few hill tops, parts of
Northwest OH, and near the lake. We will need a frost headline
for most of the forecast area for tonight into Monday morning,
and may need to think about targeted freeze warnings for the
typically colder spots (parts of interior northern Ohio, such as
near Wooster, along with interior Northwest PA). With the
current frost headline active am not hoisting the Sunday night
headlines with this package. If we are able to cancel the
current Frost Advisory by 7 AM we may hoist the new headlines
with the next update...otherwise it will be passed to day shift.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Cloud cover will be on the increase Monday night into Tuesday ahead
of an upper level trough sliding southeast into the Great Lakes
Region. South to southwest winds will be breezy on Tuesday,
advecting a warmer airmass north into the area. Dewpoints will start
the day in the 30s on Tuesday and take some time to moisten. Little
to no instability is forecast on Tuesday in the warm sector given an
extensive mid cloud deck and low boundary layer moisture but rain is
forecast to spread west to east across the area Tuesday afternoon
and night. The cold front trails as the surface low tracks well
northeast into Quebec, pushing south of Lake Erie after midnight
Tuesday night. Will carry a chance of thunderstorms with the front
although instability will still be limited. Highs on Tuesday will be
in the lower 60s area wide, dropping back into the upper 40s to
lower 50s for highs behind the front on Wednesday.

High pressure builds in quickly behind the front on Wednesday night.
It looks like cloud cover should clear, allowing areas of frost to
form Wednesday night. It is also possible that much of the area
could see sub-freezing conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure with nearly full sun overhead on Thursday should
contribute to temperatures warming about 5 degrees, except near Lake
Erie. High pressure shifts to New England on Friday as upper level
ridging builds overhead. Temperatures will trend warmer through the
extended, especially behind a warm front that will lift north Friday
night. It is possible that we could see chances of showers and
thunderstorms as early as Friday afternoon but better chances will
be through Saturday as a shortwave rounds the ridge aloft, kicking
off activity. Temperatures will be above normal (65-75F) again by
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
VFR ongoing and is expected to persist through the TAF period.
Mainly dealing with mid-deck around 5 to 6kft early this
morning. Some spots such as near TOL where that deck has broken
up to less than a ceiling, though at most sites expect this BKN
to OVC deck to persist early this morning. As a weak shortwave
passes between 12-15z we may see ceilings lower to the 4 to
5kft range. By mid to late afternoon, these ceilings should
scatter out with mainly clear skies persisting into tonight.

West-northwest winds and generally 3 to 8 knots continue early
this morning, and are expected to increase to around 10 knots
today. Periodic gusts up to 20 knots are possible at CLE/ERI.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers Tuesday. Non-VFR may
persist into early Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds back to southwesterly today but remain elevated east of
Cleveland at 15-20 knots. Waves of 3 to 5 feet can be expected in
the open waters. A ridge expands east over Lake Erie on Monday with
light winds and waves. South to southwest winds will increase to 15-
25 knots on Tuesday as low pressure moves east across the Upper
Great Lakes. A trailing cold front will move southeast across Lake
Erie Tuesday night with a wind shift to the northwest and post
frontal winds of 15 to 20 knots. It is unclear if a Small Craft
Advisory will be needed with the offshore flow on Tuesday but will
likely be needed east of Vermilion as flow becomes onshore and waves
build on Wednesday.

High pressure will build east across the Great Lakes Region
Wednesday night through Thursday night. A warm front will lift north
across the lake Friday night with southerly winds increasing behind
it.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for OHZ003-006-008-
     018>022-028>032-038-047.
PA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ002-003.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...Sullivan
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Sullivan
MARINE...KEC