447
FXUS64 KCRP 081949
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
249 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Key Messages:

 Moderate to Major risk of heat-related impacts, Heat Advisory
in effect for inland Nueces and inland Kleberg Thursday

 Haze from near-surface smoke lingers and worsens outdoor
exposure health risk

A weak dryline is currently located right along the Rio Grande up
to Del Rio and northeastward. This is expected to move into the
Brush Country over the next couple of hours, reducing humidity out
west. The greatest heat index values are still expected over the
southern Coastal Bend including inland Nueces, inland Kleberg, and
Jim Wells Counties. There`s still a few hours of heating
potential left in breaks of clouds in combination of dewpoints
near 80 to cause heat index values of 110. Therefore, will
maintain the Heat Advisory through 7 PM this evening.

Haze has been observed across all of South Texas through the day
today and will continue through Thursday night. Smoke guidance
from the HRRR shows increased near-surface smoke concentration
advecting from Central America up to South Texas. Weakening winds
with high dewpoints will also lead to a threat of patchy fog in
combination with the haze. Lows tonight will flirt around the
record high minimum values for the 7th day in a row.

Although the dryline retreats northwestward tonight, it will push
back through most of the Brush Country on Thursday and force
clouds to be focused right along the coast to the Victoria
Crossroads in the afternoon. The dryline will allow air
temperatures to climb around 105-108 over the Brush Country. How
high the heat index values get to Thursday will be dependent on
the eastward extent of the dryline. As of now, it is expected to
halt just west of inland Kleberg and inland Nueces counties,
resulting in a medium chance of at least 110 heat indices in the
afternoon. Therefore, have issued a Heat Advisory for those two
county portions from 1-7 PM Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Key Messages:

 Weak cold front Friday morning

 Rain chances return this weekend

Models are beginning to come into better agreement showing a weak
cold front pushing through the region Friday morning providing some
relief from the recent above normal temperatures. While rain chances
are low with the cold front, rain chances will increase Saturday as
the front retreats northward as a warm front ushering in PWAT
between 2.0-2.1". Low end chances (20% or less) for rain Saturday
will increase to a medium (30-55%) chance Sunday and Monday as a
shortwave moves across the region interacting with the abundant
moisture. While the Victoria Crossroads appears to be the early
favorite for the best chances of rain, the whole county warning area
will be in play especially Monday, when models show a surface low
moving across the area. Rain chances will quickly taper off early
next week as we begin to dry out.

Temperatures in the wake of the front will drop into the 80s Friday
afternoon and Saturday with most of the region in the lower to upper
80s. Temperatures will begin to increase once again Sunday before
climbing back into the lower to upper 90s early next week into mid-
week. Lows throughout the long term period are expected to remain
steady in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Clouds are clearing out west and will lead to VFR ceilings soon
over ALI/CRP. Residual smoke streaming from Central America has
caused hazy conditions across South Texas, leading to MVFR vsby
reductions. This haziness will likely continue through tomorrow as
depicted by HRRR Smoke guidance. Ceilings will drop to MVFR/IFR
over most of South Texas tonight with occasional LIFR over VCT/CRP
between 09-14Z. Patchy fog will also be likely as high dewpoints
coexist with weak winds. A weak dryline will push into the Brush
Country from the west Thursday afternoon, leading to a weak
northwesterly wind shift at COT/LRD/ALI. Generally weak
southeasterly winds will persist elsewhere.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Weak to moderate onshore winds can be expected through Thursday
night along with patchy fog in the late night and early morning
hours. In addition to patchy fog, haze from near-surface smoke
southward will likely continue before our next front passes. A
cold front will move offshore Friday morning. Weak to moderate
northeast winds Friday will strengthen to moderate to strong
Saturday as it shifts to the east. By early next week, winds will
shift to the southeast and remain moderate. Rain chances return
Saturday with a low chance and increases to a medium chance Sunday
and Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  96  77  89 /   0   0   0  10
Victoria          76  92  73  90 /   0  10   0  10
Laredo            78 108  75  95 /   0   0   0  20
Alice             76 101  75  91 /   0   0   0  20
Rockport          78  87  77  88 /   0   0   0  10
Cotulla           77 105  75  93 /   0   0   0  10
Kingsville        77 100  76  89 /   0   0   0  10
Navy Corpus       78  90  78  87 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ241>243.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ242-243.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EMF/94
LONG TERM....JCP/84
AVIATION...EMF/94