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000
FXUS64 KCRP 102126
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
426 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Deterministic GFS/ECMWF/NAM predict a progressive upper pattern
during the period. These models predict synoptic/mesoscale
descent over the CWA tonight through Thursday morning, as an upper
disturbance lifts northeastward away from TX/AR/LA region and
eventually merges with an upper trough to generate a high
amplitude upper trough over the Midwest/Mississippi Valley
Thursday. Further, in response to the foregoing upper system, a
secondary surge of high pressure is expected over the region
tonight/early Thursday. As the high amplitude trough continues to
move eastward, an N-S oriented upper ridge axis will approach the
region from the west Thursday night. Dry conditions willl persist
during the period per the GFS PWAT values.

Late this afternoon, based in part on HREF probability of >20kt
wind at 10-meters, expect the fire weather conditions to fall
below Critical, and the wind speeds/frequent gusts to fall below
Wind Advisory threshold, by 00z Thursday. Thus, will allow the RFW
and NPW to expire at 00z Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 401 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate Confidence in Elevated to Critical Fire Weather
  Conditions Friday

The Extended range forecast will feature mostly quiet and tranquil
weather conditions as ridging remains in control aloft over the
region. At the surface, the high pressure system will continue to
drift eastward across the central Gulf coast late week, allowing for
winds to become onshore again and gradually begin to bring back some
moisture into the area with an increase in cloud coverage. However,
one last shot at Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will
exist on Friday as winds pick up to around 20-25 MPH with gusts to
35 MPH during the afternoon while minimum relative humidity values
dip below 30% over portions of the Brush Country and Rio Grande
Plains. Aside from that, expect a warming trend into early next with
highs nearing the triple digits out west Sunday to Monday period.
Low end rain chances (10-14%) may return to the forecast Tuesday to
Wednesday next week as the next mid to upper level system moves
across the Plains. But, it is still a ways out, so we will be fine
tuning the forecast for next week over the coming days.

One more round of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns is
in store for portions of the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains
on Friday. Winds are forecast to increase to around 20 to 25 MPH
with gusts to 35 MPH during the afternoon while minimum RH values
dip below 30%. Aside from this, moisture returns over the weekend
aiding in ending the fire weather concerns through the rest of the
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. Windy northwest
wind expected to continue this afternoon, followed by weak to moderate
north wind this evening/early tonight. Expect generally weak west
to north wind after midnight through the remainder of the TAF
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 401 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

A secondary surge of high pressure is expected later tonight, as
an upper disturbance lifts northeast of the region. Based on HREF
probability of >20kt wind at 10-meters, will maintain current
Small Craft Advisory, yet decided to include the nearshore waters
in the 06-12z Thursday period. Weak to moderate onshore flow can
be expected Friday into Friday night, before increasing to more
moderate levels over the weekend leading to Small Craft Caution
conditions into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    55  87  56  82 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          53  83  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            56  87  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             53  87  53  84 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          61  84  64  79 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           55  88  55  88 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        54  86  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       62  83  64  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229>231-
     239>244-342>344-442-443.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229>231-239>244-
     342>344-442-443.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ345-
     442-443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ231-232-236-
     237.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ250-255-270-
     275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WC/87
LONG TERM....ANM/88
AVIATION...WC