082
FXUS65 KCYS 080505
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1105 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong winds continue today and tonight for southeast
  Wyoming, but will be lighter compared to Monday. Wind-prone
  locations will still see wind gusts 60-70 mph.

- Cool and unsettled weather continues for Wednesday and
  Thursday with a warming trend headed into the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 715 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024

Strong winds starting to diminish across the area outside of
the wind prone areas this evening. Will keep the High Wind
Warning going for the next hour since a few wind reports of 60
mph have been observed since 4 PM, but will likely expire the
Warning outside of the wind prone areas on time, at 9:00 PM
local. Otherwise, forecast for tonight looks on track with
clearing skies further south along I-80 and mostly cloudy skies
with some shower activity up near Douglas, Lusk, and the
northern Nebraska Panhandle. Temperatures near or a little below
freezing are expected, especially along the I-80 corridor
tonight and early Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 135 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024

Strong winds continue this afternoon...though nothing near what
we were experiencing 24 hours ago. Still getting reports of
50-60 mph gusts from area UPR sites and ASOS METARs. WYDOT
observations are still unavailable for the most part. Believe we
are in a lull on winds as Craig to Casper 850/700mb height
gradients continue to slowly decrease. No plans to change any
wind headlines at this time.

Guidance continues to show the vertically stacked low over South
Dakota beginning to retrograde back to the northwest after
00Z...resulting in increased height gradients this evening. In
house WRKHGT high wind guidance shows 850mb height gradients
increasing to 86 mtrs/700mb height gradients increasing to 66
mtrs after 00Z. This will likely be enough to increase winds
once again this evening...especially in the wind prone areas.

The stacked low begins to drift south Wednesday morning with a
secondary vort lobe dropping down into the CYS CWA Wednesday
late morning through the afternoon. Would envision increasing
chances for precipitation as this takes place and have raised
PoPs across the CWA into the 70-80 percent range.

This slow moving trough looks to linger around through Wednesday
night/Thursday morning before the entire trough drops south into
Colorado Thursday afternoon. After this takes place...look for
decreasing chances for PoPs during the evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 135 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024

The long term will see a return to warmer and drier weather
beginning on Friday. The low pressure center responsible for all the
windy weather in the beginning of the week will slowly retrograde
back westward over the Four Corners region and stall for several
days. This will keep the unsettled weather further south in Colorado
and New Mexico, allowing the CWA to finally warm up and dry out.

Despite the upper-level low swirling to the southwest, ridging will
gradually occur over western CONUS as that low weakens and
eventually gets pushed out into Texas by the end of the weekend. Due
to the gradual strengthening of the ridge, high temperatures will
also gradually increase through the beginning of next week. Expect
near-average temperatures on Friday as sub-freezing 700 mb
temperatures push eastward with the trough over eastern CONUS.
Temperatures warm 5 to 10 degrees on Saturday as we see the return
of above 0C 700 mb temperatures. Highs will be a few degrees above
average, with sunny skies making for a pleasant day! Temperatures
continue to warm into Sunday and Monday as the upper-level low over
the Four Corners region finally erodes, allowing for full ridging to
take effect. Again, looking at above average highs for both days,
with temperatures in the upper 60s and 70s!

Most of the long term will see dry conditions, as subsidence under
the ridge allows for mostly sunny skies. Monday, will be the
exception. An embedded weak shortwave within the ridge could spark
scattered thunderstorms across the CWA. GFS soundings do show decent
amounts of CAPE in the panhandle, so would not be surprised if a few
storms produced 50 MPH gusts or small hail. Looking further into
next week, it looks like the unsettled weather could continue with
daily chances for storms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1105 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024

The main closed upper level low over North Dakota will slowly
shift south into the northern Nebraska during the next 24hrs.
This will result in more gusty winds tonight across all TAF
sites. These winds will shift more to the northwest early late
Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon along with a weak
frontal boundary. This frontal boundary will bring some
afternoon cloud cover around 4-6kft and a few light rain
showers.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT Wednesday for WYZ106-110-116.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...REC