Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 231019
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
519 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms possible
  (15-29%). Hail 2" or larger, isolated strong damaging winds
  and a few isolated tornadoes will be the main hazards.

- Critical fire risk Sunday afternoon west of a Meade to Scott
  City line. A Fire Watch is currently in effect for this area

- Strong winds possible during the day on Sunday. Wind gusts of
  50 to 60 mph possible east of highway 283. A High Wind Watch
  is currently in effect

- Turning colder sunday night. Wind Chills Monday morning and
  Tuesday morning as low as 5 to 15 degrees.

- Accumulating snow possible west of a Hays to Liberal line.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Short term models are in good agreement with gusty south winds
developing today across southwest Kansas as surface pressure
falls along the lee of the Rockies and a 30-40 knot 850mb wind
mixes down to the surface. These gusty surface winds will not
only continue tonight but is also expected to increase based on
a developing low level jet and the low level mixing potential
from model soundings which will bring some of these stronger
winds down to the surface during the overnight hours. Warm air
advection and 850mb to 700mb moisture transport will be improving
tonight and this will rise to a chance of showers and
thunderstorms (20-40%), especially, east of highway 283 between
06z and 18z Sunday. Thunderstorms tonight are not expected to
be severe but wind gusts of 50 mph or greater and isolated small
hail will be possible from a few of the strongest storms.

There will be a better chance for severe thunderstorms late
Sunday and Sunday night when a dry line moves into southwest
Kansas and these strong low level winds begin to draw 50 degree
dewpoints northward towards/into southern Kansas. This improving
moisture will occur east of this dryline as an upper level
wave, associated with the 500mb jet, approaches southwest
Kansas. 00z HREF has a 50-70% chance for 50 degree dew points to
return to locations east of highway 183. Although this forecast
moisture return by the short term models appears somewhat
marginal, there is still a 15-29% chance for isolated to widely
scattered severe thunderstorms given the mid level instability
and forcing forecast ahead of the approaching upper level
system. We may also end up with better shear than what the
models are forecasting late day also due to backing flow ahead
of the dryline as an area of low pressure deepens across far
eastern Colorado. Following this solution of better shear and
mid level instability the severe potential on Sunday still
exists with a few of the strongest thunderstorms being capable
of producing hail of 2” and isolated strong damaging winds of
>60 mph. A few isolated tornados cannot be rule out.

Prior to the severe weather potential on Sunday the strong
south winds will be the primary issues early in the day. Short
term models all agree this morning with 850mb winds being at
least 50 knots during the day across southwest Kansas with these
strongest winds being located just east of a dryline that will
move into southwest Kansas during the day. Along with these
strong 850mb winds the short term models and BUFR sounding
momentum transfer for wind gusts all agree that surface wind
gusts of at least 50 mph will be possible during the afternoon,
especially east of Dodge City. A few models even had isolated
wind gusts of 60 mph. This easily justifies keeping the high
wind watch going but confidence is not high enough just yet for
upgrading this to a high wind warning. Still given these +50 mph
winds it is important to begin taking precautions now for these
strong winds.

West of the dryline on Sunday the winds are not expected to be
as strong but still wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will be likely
(50%-80%) as afternoon humidity values fall back well into the
teens. The exact location of where these lowest humidity values
will occur are not clear at this time given the uncertainty of
where a surface low and a cold front will be located across
southwest Kansas late day. Areas near and north of the cold
front may have weaker winds and higher humidity. At this time it
appears areas of greatest concern for these weaker winds will
be west and north of the Garden City area but details of this
far out is still low. As a result, will keep the fIre watch for
Sunday west of the dryline which still appears to be located
somewhere between Highway 83 and highway 183.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Sunday night the potential for severe weather will move east of
Pratt and Barber county by midnight. These storms will be
replaced by a strong cold front surging south across southwest
Kansas which will usher in some much colder air to southwest
Kansas. The ensemble 850mb mean temperatures continue to show
850mb temperatures falling from +10C at 00z Monday to 0to-5C by
18z Monday as north winds of around 40 knot 850mb winds develop.
As temperatures fall Sunday night the gusty north winds will
result in wind chill values as low as 5 to 15 degrees.

In addition to these cold wind chills there will be a chance
for some light snow to develop late Sunday night as moisture and
lift just northwest of the upper level trough moves into
southwest and portions of north central Kansas. This
developing snow when combined with the gusty north winds that
are expected will result in areas of blowing snow which may
cause some travel concerns due to reduced visibilities Sunday
night and early Monday morning. Exactly how quickly the snow
develops and where is still somewhat unclear but anyone with
travel plans should monitor the forecast closely and be prepared
for the potential for minor winter weather hazards, mainly west
of a Hays to Liberal line.

As for snowfall amounts...at this time based on the latest
ensembles it appears that it will be cold enough for snow to
occur as far east as Highway 283, however the better forcing in
the 850mb to 700mb levels continues to be focused west of a Hays
to Liberal line. Given this the better chance for measurable
snowfall will be in this area (along and west of a Hays to
Liberal line) with a 60-80% chance for 0.1” or more over a 24
hour period ending at 7pm Monday. West of a Scott City to
Liberal line there is a 30-50% chance for 1” or more over the
same 24 hour time frame.

The gusty north winds will decrease late Monday/Monday night as
an area of high pressure builds into Kansas. Still given the
expected winds and temperatures Tuesday morning the wind chills
once again will fall back into the single digits across north
central and several locations of southwest Kansas.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 506 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Easterly winds early this morning were advecting an area of low
clouds in the 1000 to 2000ft AGL into the Hays area as of 10z.
The progress west has been slower than what the models
previously advertised but still the latest short term models are
in good agreement with spreading/developing an area of MVFR
ceilings as far west as Dodge City between 12 and 15z. These low
clouds will then erode between 15z and 18z with VFR conditions
expected through the remainder of the day and night. As these
low clouds erode the southerly winds will increase to 20 to 25
knots with gusts as high as 35 knots possible at times during
the afternoon. These gusty south winds will then continue
through the overnight hours as surface pressures continue to
fall across eastern Colorado. Towards midnight a low level jet
is also expected to develop based on the latest short term
models with wind speeds of 50knots possible near 2000ft AGL
level.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

Critical fire risk possible Sunday west of a dryline which will
be located between highway 83 and highway 183. West of this
dryline conditions on Sunday will be favorable for deep mixing
to occur during the day which frequently results in lower
humidity values than what any model suggests. Keeping this in
mind..the current forecast has afternoon humidity values west
of a Garden City to Liberal line in the teens and west of Dodge
City the afternoon humidity values are forecast to range from 20
to 30 percent. In addition to the low humidity values there
will be a 50-80% chance for southwest winds gusting at times
into the 40-50mph range Sunday afternoon. This combination of
low humidity and very windy conditions will create an
environment where fires can escape control and be difficult to
contain. The current conditions do not warrant a red flag
warning but remember humidity values tend to be lower given
this environment so will continue with A fire weather watch on
Sunday until confidence improves.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
KSZ030-031-044>046-064>066-078>081-088>090.
Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
evening for KSZ043-061>063-074>077-084>087.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
FIRE WEATHER...Burgert


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