536
FXUS63 KDLH 291737
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1237 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Localized freezing rain is expected for the higher terrain of
  the North Shore this morning (total ice accumulations around
  0.15")

- Light snow will mix with rain for parts of northeast Minnesota
  this morning (snow accumulations up to 1" mainly on
  grassy/elevated surfaces around and north of the Iron Range)

- Strong northeast winds up to 45 mph are expected along the
  North Shore of Lake Superior this morning.

- Active weather continues through the week with rainy systems
  on Tuesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Well, this has been a fun system with various levels of
complexity at play. At least this morning the winds have come
down some and generally have been below Wind Advisory criteria,
so cancelled that headline early though a few more gusts to 45
mph are possible. Perhaps could have left it a few more hours as
a thin band of stronger winds is moving northward behind the
first precipitation shield. Those wind gusts should be short-
lived though. Shortened the timing of the Wind Advisory on the
North Shore to end this morning rather in the afternoon.
Guidance moves this system through fairly quickly today.

To the best of our knowledge the ice/snow forecast has been
working out thus far. Have seen some obs with snow, but nothing
accumulating on webcams while temperatures remain largely above
freezing except along the North Shore where some localized
icing is likely occurring, but radar echoes aren`t showing too
heavy of rainfall (freezing) rates. Content with keeping that
Winter Weather Advisory intact. The NWS office in Duluth had
some interesting icing phenomena late Sunday evening where ice
was not accumulating on the ground, but it was accumulating
about 5 to 6 feet off the ground on poles and trees.
Temperatures have since warmed and that has melted, but it was a
neat lesson in thermodynamics and trying to forecast this
stuff.

Temperatures should remain warm enough over most of the forecast
area today to continue rain showers before they move out this
evening. There will be a brief break with some dry weather
Tuesday before the next warmer system arrives Tuesday night
bringing more rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Rinse and repeat
with another dry-ish day Wednesday before another wet system
arrives Thursday with a bit more instability across NW WI giving
a better chance for thunderstorms.

Late in the forecast period, models diverge quite a bit, but a
cursory look suggests that an active pattern continues as we
slowly erode the drought conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

TAFs continue to be messy. Oscillating ceilings and visibilities
from passing showers and lingering fog will continue throughout
the day. DLH will stay in the soup more consistently with IFR to
LIFR visibilities and LIFR to VLIFR ceilings from stratus and
fog being transported up the hillside from Lake Superior. Winds
will switch to the north this evening, causing DLH to join the
rest of the terminals in oscillating conditions. Windy
conditions continue at DLH as well, though winds should begin to
decrease this afternoon prior to the wind switch this evening.
Fog is expected to linger/redevelop overnight tonight, though
models are showing a spread of whether visibilities overnight
will lower below MVFR. This will be monitored in future routine
TAFs.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 238 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Gales slowly subside today from southwest to northeast with the
North Shore holding onto them into the early afternoon. The
waves kicked up by this system will remain above four feet into
Tuesday morning which will keep Small Craft Advisories in effect
after the gales end. More Small Craft Advisories will be needed
periodically throughout the week as several more system cross
Lake Superior.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for
     MNZ012-021.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for LSZ121-143>148-
     150.
     Gale Warning until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ140>142.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolfe
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...Wolfe