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000
FXUS63 KDVN 120925
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
425 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions return later this morning, lasting through the
  upcoming weekend

- Gusty northwest winds today could lead to hazardous fire
  weather conditions

- A warming trend is on tap this weekend, continuing into next week

- More active pattern develops for Monday night and Tuesday,
  with the possibility of severe thunderstorms Tuesday

&&


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 424 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Spotty rain showers continue early this morning as a mid-level
shortwave trough remains over the Upper Midwest. An embedded lobe of
positive vorticity advection will continue to move through our area
and eventually, exit the region, bringing any lingering showers to
an end. Large-scale upper-level ridging will build across the
Intermountain States today, lasting through the weekend. This will
help keep conditions dry, under mostly sunny skies. It will be a
gusty day, however, thanks to a tight surface pressure gradient and
deep boundary layer mixing up to around 800 mb per the NAM and GFS
soundings. Stronger flow aloft should be able to mix to the surface,
with northwesterly winds gusting to 25 to 35 mph, with perhaps a few
gusts approaching 40 mph this afternoon. These winds, coupled with
drying conditions in the wake of the trough, could result in some
hazardous fire weather conditions in our area today, but with recent
rainfall and wetter fuels, we will hold off on any Special Weather
Statements for fire weather conditions. High temperatures should
warm into the lower to middle 60s.

A quiet night is on tap for tonight as a surface high pressure ridge
axis moves through. With weak winds associated with the ridge, and
abundant clear skies, overnight lows should dip to the middle to
upper 30s for most locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 424 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

After a cool night tonight, the high pressure ridge axis will move
off to the east Saturday and southerly flow/warm air advection will
take hold in our area. This weekend is shaping up to be very
pleasant, with lots of sunshine and temperatures warming up into the
70s and even some lower 80s, thanks to 850 mb temperatures warming
to between 14 to 17 degrees C. While not expected to result in
record high temperatures, which are in the mid to upper 80s, these
temperatures should be greater than 97 percent of climatology, per
the NAEFS. Despite a mid-level shortwave impulse moving through
Saturday night, dry air in the lower-levels should inhibit any
precipitation from reaching the ground, so only high-level cloud
cover is expected from this shortwave.

Attention then turns to a more active weather pattern in our area,
starting Monday night, and lingering at least through Tuesday night.
A longwave upper-level trough will develop over the western CONUS
late this weekend, and gradually translate eastward with time. This
trough will pivot northeastward and become negatively tilted Monday
night towards us, bringing with it an attendant surface low from
Colorado northeastward towards southern Minnesota, per both the GEFS
and ECMWF ensemble low tracks. This will result in enhanced theta-e
advection over our area on robust southerly winds, with dew points
increasing to the upper 50s to near 60 degrees by Tuesday. A strong
110+ kt upper-level jet streak and 40+ kt low-level jet will impinge
on our region Monday night into Tuesday. While there is a bit of
spread among the ensembles as far as instability is concerned, with
the GEFS painting probabilities of CAPE greater than 1000 J/kg
between 50 to 70 percent across our southern areas and the ECMWF
probs of this below 20 percent Monday night, the kinematics appear
to be more supportive of strong to severe convection, such as deep-
layer shear on the order of 35 to 45 knots. From the Storm
Prediction Center, we continue to be outlooked with a Slight Risk
(level 2 out of 5) for severe storms on Tuesday, now across the
entire forecast area. It appears that all hazards of severe weather
will be possible, including tornadoes, straight-line winds, and
large hail. Additionally, Pwat values between 1 to 1.5 inches are
possible with the moisture advection, so some heavier rainfall
should accompany this system at least in some spots. The surface low
is progged to become vertically stacked and pass through central
Iowa later in the day Tuesday, and eventually exit to the northeast
by late day Wednesday. Stay tuned over the next several days for
further updates.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1243 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

A swath of light rain showers continue from northeastern Iowa
southeast towards northwest Illinois early this morning, along
with gusty northwest winds. While the showers will slowly taper
off this morning, expect the winds to strengthen after sunrise,
with gusts between 30 to 35 knots at their peak late this
morning through the afternoon. Confidence is high for the wind
forecast. Although we will be dealing with the light showers
this morning, we are expecting conditions to remain VFR
throughout the TAF period.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schultz
LONG TERM...Schultz
AVIATION...Schultz