Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
610 ACUS03 KWNS 270730 SWODY3 SPC AC 270729 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTH TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from parts of central and south Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough initially near the upper Great Lakes region is forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward on Monday. In its wake, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains. Across the west, a shortwave trough and related mid/upper-level jet will move through the Northwest toward the northern Rockies by Monday evening. ...ArkLaTex into the Lower MS Valley... A storm cluster may be ongoing somewhere near the ArkLaTex region Monday morning, aided by a persistent low-level jet and the approaching low-amplitude shortwave trough. The eastward progression of any such cluster and magnitude of downstream destabilization remain quite uncertain, but some threat for isolated hail, damaging wind, and possibly a tornado could spread into the lower MS Valley through the day. ...Parts of central/south TX... An outflow reinforced front may move into parts of central TX early Monday, in the wake of extensive ongoing convection father east. This front will may stall and either begin moving northward by afternoon, or just become increasingly ill-defined with time. While stronger ascent will move east/northeast of this region, strong heating of a moist airmass will result in moderate to locally strong destabilization, and isolated storm development will be possible. Deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for some storm organization, so any sustained development would pose a threat for hail and isolated severe gusts. ...Parts of the Mid MS and OH Valleys into the lower Great Lakes region... A weakening cold front will move through parts of the Mid MS and OH Valleys during the day on Monday, with the front expected to reach parts of the lower Great Lakes by Monday evening. While moderate deep-layer flow may persist along/ahead of the front, destabilization may be quite limited due to considerable cloudiness and weakening midlevel lapse rates. While a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out along/ahead of the front, uncertainty regarding the development of adequate instability precludes probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 04/27/2024 $$