Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 182105
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
405 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below freezing temperatures expected for overnight Monday into
  Tuesday
- Elevated fire weather concerns for Tuesday afternoon


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 404 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Currently in the mid to upper levels, there is significant,
positively-tilted troughing to the northeast of the region with
decent jet support rounding the base. The trough axis extends
through central MO just south of I-70. There is northwesterly flow
over the region with the trough axis to the southeast of the area.
There is some minor shortwave ridging to the southwest of the region
that has been and will continue to be flattened by the troughing to
the northeast. A rex block pattern has set up over western CONUS
with the high pressure center over the WA/OR border and a cut off
low over AZ.

With persistent drier, colder air moving over the region with
northwesterly winds expect skies to remain clear tonight and through
tomorrow. Radiational cooling is expected to occur tonight as winds
weaken and skies remain clear. This will aid in getting our low
temperatures below freezing around midnight Tuesday. Temperatures
are expected to reach below freezing a few hours past midnight
however, they are expected to begin warming before max cooling due
to warm air advection from southwesterly winds. This warm air
advection in addition to some gusty winds could lead to elevated
fire weather concerns late Tuesday morning to early afternoon. The
warm air advection will happen ahead of a surface cold front
associated with a mid level low over eastern Canada. Frontal passage
is expected Tuesday afternoon to late evening and low temperatures
Wednesday morning are expected to range from the low to mid 30s
across the region. Cold air advection behind the front will lead to
high temperatures for Wednesday being 10-15 degrees lower than
Tuesday`s across the area.

Chances for rain returns Thursday night into Friday for the northern
part of the region as a fast-moving shortwave trough increases lift
and leads to showers out ahead of it. The associated surface front
is expected to pass over the area Friday afternoon which drop our
temperatures again. Counties north of I-70 will see low temperatures
below freezing while counties south of I-70 will range from the mid
to high 30s. Rain chances return again on Friday and last through
the middle of next week. On Sunday a mid level low moves in from the
southwest. The winds over the region shift to south helping us
become more unstable with warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico.
Several short waves will move through the area increasing rain
chances through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the TAF period.
Winds are currently gusting to the low to mid 20s with diurnal
mixing. Winds are expected to shift to a more westerly direction
later this evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Collier


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