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000
FXUS63 KEAX 170852
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
352 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 352 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

Large convective system that developed over the High Plains late
Sunday is now dropping into southeast KS and much of Oklahoma.
Extensive stratiform region behind this MCS and weak shear are
favorable for the development of an MCV over KS/OK...which may just
enhance the initial vort max which initiated this convection. Radar
loops tend to hint at a circulation developing near McPherson, KS. If
an MCV does form over central KS, it is likely to slowly track east-
southeastward into the MO Ozarks through early afternoon. Meanwhile a
weak stationary boundary has positioned itself from near Emporia to
Jefferson City, and this has been the focus for scattered
thunderstorms early this morning thanks to a westward-propagating
wave emanating from the Ozarks. This boundary may serve as a focus
for additional convection through the morning and early afternoon
especially if an MCV can become organized and enhance lift downshear.
Weak shear should minimize any threat for strong storms, although
locally heavy rainfall is a possibility especially south and
southeast of Kansas City.

Upper wave will drop southeast of the area this evening while weak
high pressure builds in from the north. This will keep things dry
through most of Wednesday while upper level ridging keeps
temperatures close to average. There is a slight chance for
thunderstorms over the western parts of the forecast area late Weds
afternoon, though the better chances will likely hold off until after
dark.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

During the latter half of the week and into the weekend, a longwave
ridge will gradually build across the central CONUS, decreasing the
chance of precipitation and allowing temperatures to rise into the
lower to mid 90s each afternoon.

The best chance for thunderstorms during the period is Wednesday
night, as a shortwave trough slides down the ridge across central
Missouri. Afterward, the ridge will build into the region and keep
most precipitation off to our north and northeast, although cold-
pool interactions or any southward deviation of the forecast pattern
could allow some precipitation in northern Missouri. As is typical
of this season, any thunderstorm chances will be slightly better
during the nighttime hours. Models hint that the ridge may begin to
break down and shift eastward by the end of the period, which may
allow for a better chance of thunderstorms throughout the CWA by
late Sunday or Monday.

Southerly low-level winds and a decent gulf connection will result
in dewpoint temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s through much of
the period, which will combine with high temperatures in the 90s to
result in heat concerns for the end of the week into the weekend.
Heat indices in the 100-105 F range are not out of the question for
Friday through Sunday, and conditions will continue to be monitored
for heat advisory potential.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

MCS and other thunderstorm activity should remain well south of the
terminals overnight, so will forecast VFR conditions and light/variable
winds through the period with PM thunderstorm chances tomorrow too
low of confidence to warrant mention.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hawblitzel
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Bookbinder