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000
FXUS63 KEAX 160541
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1241 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 158 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

The main concern in the next 12 to 24 hours deals with potential for
severe convection this afternoon and this evening, with additional
severe storms possible tonight or early Sunday morning.

Convection developed early this afternoon in an axis of extremely
unstable air characterized by MUCAPE values in the 3000 to as much
as 5000 J/kg range. Excessively high precipitable water values, in
or greater than the 99th percentile for this time of year, combined
with slow storm movement will lead to localized flash flooding for
areas that do see thunderstorms. Marginal wind shear, around 30 to
as much as 35 knots seems to be main inhibitor for severe
convection. But given the extreme instability severe convection is
likely with the strongest storms. Large hail is possible but the
biggest threat should be from damaging winds and localized flash
flooding.

There may be another round of storms tonight along an advancing cold
front. But an MCV ahead of the front, which is aiding convective
development currently in northwestern Missouri, makes projecting the
front southward difficult. So there is considerable uncertainty with
any potential for a second round. SPC short range ensemble data for
convection allowing models highlight a period of time from 00Z to 06Z
and based on 12Z deterministic models that seems reasonable.
Convection should develop on that boundary this evening and then
track to the south. The biggest question will be just how intense
they may be as the move southward into the forecast area. Latest
model runs, including the high-resolution WRF suggest some weakening
is likely which limits the severe potential. This makes sense as
shear decreases as the front approaches and instability weakens as
well. Should any storms become severe with this activity damaging
winds and localized flooding look to be the biggest threats. Large
hail may also be a concern but with a decreasing trend to the
convection, think winds will be the bigger issue.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 58 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

Monday through Saturday...

Models show broad slow eastward progression of the upper ridge
during the course of the week. Early on...forecast soundings
continue to show potential for thunderstorms on Monday as the ridge
remains knocked down limiting the cap. Tuesday and Wednesday should
be dry. As the ridge builds in mid to late week wouldn`t be
surprised to see thunderstorms pass through on the edge of the
advancing cap...best chances Thursday afternoon and/or evening.
Temperatures will moderate from slightly below normal early in the
week to slight above normal by late in the week as the ridge has
fully built in.

Bailey

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

Bands of midlevel clouds with bases generally above 6,000 ft will
continue to stream through the area overnight, while any lingering
precipitation over central Missouri dissipates and pushes off to the
south. Some lower-end MVFR to IFR stratus and fog may build into
portions of northwest Missouri between 06z-12z behind the midlevel
clouds, but may not reach as far south as MCI/MKC before sunrise and
daytime mixing eliminates the lower ceilings and visibilities. Most
precipitation this afternoon is expected to remain west of the area,
so have elected not to mention thunder chances in any of the TAFs at
this time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDB
LONG TERM...Bailey
AVIATION...Laflin