Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 142324
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
624 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms with potentially strong to
severe storms are expected across central MO and points east during
the late afternoon into the evening. Primary hazards are large hail
and gusty winds. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

- Isolated showers are possible across areas of western and
northwest MO and far eastern KS through this evening into the early
overnight. Coverage is expected to be sparse at best.

- Cooler temperatures settle in for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Another fairly active weather day across the region as storms are
starting to initiate across central MO; thus, a concise discussion.
These storms are forming a head of a cold front that has been slowly
working its way through the area during the day. At the time of
writing, the front is settled along a line from Moberly through
Butler. An upper level jet streak is moving across central MO during
the late afternoon and evening which is initiating convection across
the warm side of the front. Instability above 1000-3000 J/kgK and
bulk shear across the region above 30 kts foster a favorable
environment for large hail and damaging winds. A couple tornadoes
are also possible, but the tornado threat is more favorable to the
east of the coverage area. Storms are expected to initiate and
quickly move east across interior MO. Elevated showers continue
across the northern and western sides of the surface low bringing
chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms across western MO and
far eastern KS through the evening. These are likely to remain sub-
severe.

The weather pattern calms and cools going into the end of the week
as surface ridging progresses into the area. Low to mid level flow
turns northerly pushing colder air into the region. Highs Friday
reach into the upper 50s and low 60s. Temperatures rebound Saturday
as being on the western side of the ridge returns southerly flow
advecting warmer air into the area lifting highs toward the upper
60s. Sunday, strong upper level northwest flow mixes down cooler
breezy conditions. Northwest flow continues to dominate the weather
pattern over the next several days with the next potential for
precipitation looking to hold off until late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Low MVFR ceilings will spread southward across eastern KS and
western MO this evening and overnight. These ceilings will
linger into the early morning hours before drier air begins to
erode them from north south between 8Z and 12Z. Winds will be
from the north at 10-15 kts with some stronger gusts this
evening and overnight, then decrease tomorrow morning while
remaining from the north.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...CDB


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