Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 192336

636 PM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

Issued at 313 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Shortwave over the Southern Rockies will track toward the forecast
area Sunday and Sunday night. High clouds and increasing southerly
flow ahead of this system will keep overnight temperatures warmer
than the past few nights with lows tonight in the mid 50s.

The upper wave to the southwest will begin to weaken as it
approaches the area tomorrow and begins to phase with a stronger wave
to the north. Tropospheric wind flow and overall forcing will
therefore be relatively weak, but this system will still have enough
moisture and instability to work with for scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop across much of KS and NE Sunday afternoon
and spread into the region Sunday evening. Models continue to slow
down the progression of this system slightly, so that most precip
looks to hold off until near or shortly after sunset Sunday. With
such weak wind flow aloft any storm that develops Sunday evening is
unlikely to be strong or severe.

With the slower timing of the upper wave, it appears the weak
attendant cold front will not pass through the area until midday
Monday. This will allow parts of the area to destabilize during the
day Monday and provide a better chance for more widespread showers
and thunderstorms particularly across the southeastern half of the
forecast area during the afternoon. Winds aloft will remain quite
weak and instability will be marginal so strong storms are not
expected and heavy rainfall appears unlikely. Clearing skies and a
lack of cold air upstream will likely allow parts of northwest MO and
northeast KS to rise back into the low to mid 70s Monday afternoon
despite the passage of the cold front.

Deep upper-level ridging will build into the central U.S. Tuesday and
Tuesday night bringing surface ridging and dry conditions. Coldest
air with this surface high will remain bottled well to the north so
temperatures Monday and Tuesday nights will only be in the 40s and
temps during the day Tuesday will still rise into the middle and
upper 60s.

A quick return to southerly flow on Wednesday will set the stage for
another round of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night and
Thursday when a much deeper upper-level trough and an associated cold
front will swing into the Plains. While there are still some
discrepancies among medium range models with the timing of this
front, the general consensus seems to bring it into the forecast area
Thursday morning and early afternoon which is not too favorable for
strong or severe storms. However, the severe potential will need to
be watched given the sharp negative tilt this system is forecast to
acquire over the Plains. If this system slows down, more unstable air
could be advected into the area while the front would track into the
region during a more favorable time of day for severe thunderstorms.
So this system will bear watching.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Gusty southerly winds will diminish over the next 1-2 hours across
the region, and will turn a bit more to the southeast during the
overnight hours. Winds will increase out of the south southwest again
on Sunday morning, and will be accompanied by a broken stratus deck
with bases around 5 kft. Showers and thunderstorms will build in from
the northwest on Sunday evening, possibly impacting TAF sites between
23z-03z Sunday evening.




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