Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 242315
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
615 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 313 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017

Main concern in the short-term forecast period is the potential
for strong storms this afternoon and evening ahead of the surface
low currently spinning over the Texas panhandle. Although model
analysis indicates some elevated instability over the region, on-
and-off showers and storms today and thick cloud cover have
muddied low-level instability, and thermal ridging ahead of the
850-700 hPa low has also kept midlevel lapse rates weak. In
addition, the recent diminishment of lightning activity seems to
indicate a stabilizing atmosphere. More unstable conditions are
present off to the west and may continue to support convective
initiation through the afternoon and evening, but even robust
storms could struggle once they move into the worked-over airmass
in our forecast area. Therefore, although the strong/marginally
severe threat can`t be completely ruled out for this evening, it
is looking less and less likely as the day wears on.

Showers and perhaps an embedded thunderstorm will continue to wrap
around the north and northwest side of the surface low as it
travels south of the CWA tonight and Saturday, extending the
scattered storm chances into at least early tomorrow afternoon.
Temperatures will not rise much tomorrow under cloudy skies and
northwest winds, but will rebound into the 60s for Sunday as we
dry out.

The next round of precipitation will come Sunday night into Monday
as a quickly-following shortwave trough slides across the southern
CONUS. The surface low will not wrap up nearly as much as with
this system, therefore the combination of a slightly more southern
track and not as much precipitation wrapping around will result in
a quick round of showers, most of which will occur south of I-70.
A more potent system is still on track to impact the region
Wednesday night through Thursday, and is currently progged to again
trek from the Texas panhandle up I-44. PWATs with this system are
quite high and models are producing fairly high QPF, but there is
still some uncertainty with where the low will track and how far
east it is when it begins to really deepen and wrap up, so will
not commit to any rainfall amounts yet. Overall, not too concerned
about flooding even after several rounds of rainfall, as today`s
rain should be quickly absorbed into the dry ground, Sunday
night`s amounts should be fairly unimpressive, and there should be
enough lag time before the next stronger system.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 614 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2017

MVFR ceilings for the next 3 to 6 hours will drop to IFR
overnight. Once the ceilings drop to IFR, it is likely that
they`ll remain there through the rest of the forecast as the
backside of storm system slowly moves east. Confidence is high
that ceilings will be IFR. But there is some uncertainty as to the
onset. Given that IFR ceilings are occurring from far northern
MO, westward into NE and central KS, feel like a slower
progression is warranted.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...CDB


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