Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 232315
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
615 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 238 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2017

A large amplitude vertically stacked low pressure system resides
over the northern plains creating most of the weather impacts in
this region for the next 48 hours. A weak shortwave extending from
this low will enter into NW MO this afternoon sparking off a
scattered showers over the western portion of the CWA. These
showers look to be low topped around 14-16kft so the threat of
thunder with these storms is low. Cloud coverage and northerly
winds will keep the temperatures well below normal for this time
of year with the showers dissipating quickly after sunset. This
low will quickly push to the south through eastern MO Wednesday
morning sparking off another around of showers over central MO
which will also have limited thunderstorm potential and last off
and on through sunset as the low starts to push east. Temperatures
will remain below average on Wednesday as well with even a slight
decrease of a couple degrees with the low overhead.

The pattern will finally break Thursday as ridging builds into the
central plains increasing temperatures to near normal in the mid
70s. A surface low develops over OK Thursday night with a weak
shortwave pushing through the area overnight into Friday increasing
some chance PoPs over the area for the early morning.  With the warm
air in place Friday will be the peak in temperatures for the week in
the low 80s. A shortwave will exit the Rockies Friday night which
will help deepen the surface low in place over OK that will be the
weather maker for the weekend.

There is still quite a bit of uncertainty for the precipitation
pattern this Saturday as GFS and ECMWF have very different
solutions. GFS deepens that low pressure into an elongated area
through IL while the ECMWF keeps most of the low pressure and lift
over southern MO. With this uncertainty the PoPs have remained lower
with a larger area of coverage which can be more refined as models
start to converge to a solution. Sunday continues with uncertainty
as GFS develops a large area of precipitation on the backside of
the low pressure as it moves to the NE while the ECMWF keeps MO
drier. PoPs remain lower and more widespread over northern MO to
account for this uncertainty.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 615 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2017

Showers currently moving through the KC area will continue to
drift off to the south and dissipate over the next hour or so,
ending at KMCI and KMKC before the TAF becomes valid but possibly
lingering until 01z at KIXD. Otherwise, primarily VFR conditions
will persist through around 10z when stratus will begin to build
into the area from the north, bringing ceilings to around 3 kft
and eventually lowering to around 1500 ft by mid-morning. Mixing
should help ceilings lift and eventually scatter out during the
late morning hours, when northwest winds will also begin to tick
upward in speed and veer a bit more to the NNW. A few isolated
showers are possible on Wednesday afternoon, but should stay
mainly east of the terminals.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Barham
Aviation...Laflin



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