Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 281724
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1124 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 313 AM CST MON NOV 28 2016

Large-scale upper low seen spinning across eastern South Dakota early
this morning with main trough axis extending southwest through the
Southern Rockies. Secondary vort max now entering west Texas with
broad southwest flow prevailing downstream across the Lower Missouri
Valley. Lead elongated shortwave/PV anomaly slowly edging east
through central Kansas this morning...with latest radar trends
showing developing convection just northwest of Fort Scott, KS. This
activity continues to slide to the northeast and have elected to
carry a slgt chc thunder mention across southern portions of the fcst
area early this morning. As we progress through the day...weak cold
front to steadily move east across the fcst area...with models
highlighting the possibility of renewed convection east of the Route
65 corridor later today. This may occur as models show weak
instability in the 500-750 J/Kg immediately ahead of the
boundary...however lingering low clouds may curtail destabilization
potential to some degree. In any event...all convective activity
should be east of the KC Metro with weak instability largely keeping
severe probabilities in check. In addition to convection
concerns...another challenging aspect with today`s forecast involves
temperatures as little cold air exists behind the cold front.
Considering this boundary will act mainly as a wind shift line along
with the fact we`re already starting out quite warm...it remain
plausible for many areas to warm into the lower 60s by early this
afternoon before slightly cooler air starts arrives by late afternoon.

Precip chances expected to steadily come to an end late this
afternoon evening as boundary slides east. From this point
forward...upcoming fcst largely a temperature forecast as little
chance for appreciable precip exists through the next several days.
In hopes of trying to find something interesting to talk about...a
secondary cold front is expected to pass across the area on Tuesday
which will lead to a fairly decent cooldown heading into midweek. In
fact...high temps look to remain in the low to mid 40s through the
upcoming weekend as northerly surface winds look to prevail thanks
to a stagnant upper pattern which will keep low pressure in place
across the upper Great Lakes through the week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1124 AM CST MON NOV 28 2016

Cold front pushing into western MO is pushing the back edge of
showers and clouds into central MO. Winds will be gusty from the west
for a few hours behind the front before dying down later this
afternoon and evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...Hawblitzel



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