Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 141119
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
519 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 353 AM CST TUE NOV 14 2017

Below-seasonal temperature trends will finally come to an end today
as a weak mid-level ridge advects overhead atop steady southerly
return flow at the surface. High temperatures will approach the mid
to upper 50s across eastern Kansas and western Missouri, with values
in the lower 50s across central and eastern Missouri. Increased 850
hPa flow ahead of lee-side low pressure to the west will aid in
widespread ascent for light rain and drizzle throughout the morning
and afternoon hours today. Dry air in the mid-levels will confine
moisture fields to a relatively shallow depth, thus drizzle and
minimal precipitation totals are expected until this evening. It`s
at that point that a mid to upper-level disturbance will deepen and
approach the Northern Plains area overnight. This feature will force
the previously mentioned lee-side low eastward and provide for
modest ascent ahead of and along the surface cold front Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. It`s also at that time that moisture
will deepen as upper-level flow advects eastern Pacific moisture
overhead the local area. Thus, with modest forcing for ascent near
the frontal boundary and deepening moisture fields, the Tuesday
night to Wednesday morning time frame will be the best opportunity
for widespread rain showers, and even a few isolated thunderstorms,
to develop in the near-term. The existing dry mid-levels should
cut back on total rainfall slightly, and overall, expecting to see
totals of around a quarter of an inch or less through Wednesday
morning. By the time moisture fields deepen coincident with the
frontal boundary, the front will have pushed through northwest
Missouri. Thus, expecting the greater rainfall amounts to remain
southeast of the I-35 corridor.

In the wake of the frontal passage Wednesday morning, mostly clear
skies should return by the afternoon. Dew points will drop around 20
degrees compared to current values by Wednesday afternoon, while
surface temps won`t take a noticeable drop until Thursday, given the
northerly extent of warm advection today. Surface temps will
approach the freezing mark once again Wednesday night, generally
north of the I-70 corridor, though should have no problem rebounding
to the low to mid 50s Thursday afternoon.

A dynamic upper-level system expected to impact the east coast this
weekend will be in its early stages locally on Friday. Steady warm
advection will push Friday afternoon highs into the above-normal
category, ranging from the low 60s across northern Missouri into
perhaps the low 70s for areas south of Highway 50. The main impact
Friday will be the potential for widespread rain showers ahead of
a subsequent cold front, along with isolated to scattered
thunderstorms across central Missouri. While a capping inversion
looks to affect eastern Missouri, there may be a brief opportunity
for minor surface based instability values to spark a few strong
thunderstorms across the eastern CWA into central Missouri Friday
afternoon and evening.

Temperatures will then return to slightly below normal through the
weekend and early work week. Dry conditions will also continue until
the mid-week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 514 AM CST TUE NOV 14 2017

IFR ceilings with periodic LIFR ceilings will likely impact all
terminal sites throughout the forecast period as low-level
moisture remains firmly in place until Wednesday morning. Areas
of light drizzle and mist are possible Tuesday morning and
afternoon, while vicinity rain showers are possible Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning ahead of a cold front. The frontal boundary
will turn surface winds northwesterly after passage early
Wednesday morning, though wind speeds should remain in the 5-7 kt
range during this time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Welsh



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