Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 162057
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
257 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 258 PM CST TUE JAN 16 2018

A surface high pressure area will track across the region tonight.
This will lead to a period of light winds and clearing skies and
combined with the snow cover, should result in temperatures dropping
back below zero for a good chunk of the forecast area. Fortunately,
with the light winds, wind chill values will not be as extreme as
they were early this morning. But parts of far northwestern MO may
still see wind chill values fall to around -10 to -15. That high
pressure area will shift to the southeast and allow for winds to
shift to the southwest. This warm advection pattern will persist
through the remainder of the week resulting in relatively mild
conditions by the weekend. Tomorrow will still be rather chilly
though as even though air temperatures should be in the 20s, the
increasing winds will lead to wind chill values in the teens.
Depending on how quickly the couple inches of snow across the area
melts, Thursday`s temperatures could range from the upper 30s to the
lower 40s. Friday looks warmer still with temperatures in the mid to
upper 40s and by the weekend, temperatures should be in the lower
50s.

The warm advection regime will be ahead of what probably is the
strongest potential winter storm to move into the region so far this
winter. Models are in decent agreement on a storm track for this
system, even on a day 6 forecast. The GFS, ECMWF, Canadian, and the
GFS Ensemble mean 500 mb plot all show the track of the 500 mb low
across northwestern MO or IA. There is some variation in timing but
all show the low moving but all agree on Sunday night into Monday
morning. GFS ensemble standard deviation for 500 mb height is still
high in northern MO and IA though. This indicates that the track
of the storm could still change some from what is currently being
displayed by the deterministic models. Given the track of the
upper level features, this looks like an unfavorable track for
measurable snow across the bulk of the forecast area. The
exception may be extreme northwestern MO. Also, with the track of
the upper level features being mainly to the north of the forecast
area, and the strong warm advection ahead of the system, there
may be a few thunderstorms Sunday across the area. Have added a
mention of storms for mainly south of the Missouri river. As the
main PV anomaly moves overhead, we should see a dry slot move
through, with rain and storms pushing to the east and northeast
at the same time a well defined deformation band sets up to our
north and northwest. This scenario will lead to a decent snow fall
for parts northern KS through NE and into IA. As far as snow for
our forecast area, we`ll be relegated to the decaying deformation
area on the back side as the PV anomaly is moving away. And even
then, temperatures don`t cool off dramatically behind the front so
it may only be our northwestern zones that sees snow wrap into
the area.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM CST TUE JAN 16 2018

Pockets of low MVFR ceilings are moving through the area and
should continue to do so through the day. As high pressure builds
into and through the area tonight, it should help to clear things
out. As that high shifts to the east tomorrow, winds will shift to
the south-southwest.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...CDB


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