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000
FXUS63 KEAX 141115
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
615 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

Today...As of early this morning, a warm front oriented
northwest-southeast was lifting north and northeast across the
Central Plains. Warm air advection perpendicular to this boundary
was resulting in increasing ascent over the region. The first signs
of this have recently appeared in the way of radar echo returns over
northern Kansas and southern Nebraska in advance of a weak mid-level
wave. Operation models and high-resolution guidance have done a
lackluster job in depicting ongoing activity. Most guidance does
generate convection by mid-morning over northern portions of the
forecast area. Considering ongoing trends, mesoscale and synoptic
forcing, and later model trends, confidence is high enough to
support chances for showers/thunderstorms this morning across the
northern third of the CWA...generally north of Interstate 70.
Overall effective shear is modest and instability is low with MUCAPE
less than 500 J/kg this morning, and therefore any severe weather
threat will be low/brief with thunderstorms that develop.
Thunderstorm coverage is expected to diminish some as the afternoon
progresses, partially due to warming mid-level temperatures from the
southwest and the departure of the stronger ascent.

Tonight...Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop late this
afternoon along/ahead of a cold front and strong surface thermal
axis over southern NE/northern KS as well as the intersection of
these features and the warm front over eastern NE and Iowa. While
this convection is anticipated to be initially well north of the
CWA, the overall evolution is unclear. Thunderstorms may develop
into a broken complex and move eastward, with new updrafts on the
southern flank help propagate this activity southeastward. The
southern extent of this anticipated activity is a challenge with
this forecast and some uncertainty exists. At this time, the highest
probability for measurable rainfall will exist across the
north/northeast half of the forecast area.

Saturday...Models are fairly consistent in taking an upper
disturbance from West Texas today into Missouri by late Saturday
afternoon. The overall convective evolution for Saturday is uncertain
and will be at least partially dictated from tonight`s convection.
Increasing deep ascent from the approaching wave, as well as any
residual outflow boundaries, and regions of strongest surface
heating all suggest increasing chances of convection across the
entire forecast area as Saturday progresses. The atmosphere is
expected to be moderately unstable and marginally-supportive
deep-layer wind shear will promote an environment favorable for some
severe weather. While specific hazards and their respective
locations will be better addressed in subsequent forecasts once key
features are resolved, damaging winds and large hail to golfball
size will be the main hazards. Any persistent storm that develops
along a residual boundary will also have a tornado threat as the
low-level shear will be augmented.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

Thunderstorm chances will stretch through the remainder of the
weekend as low pressure gradually ejects northeast out of the lee
trough, sending several shortwave troughs up the ridge and into the
forecast area. In this pattern, nighttime convection seems the most
likely, with thunderstorms forming in the early evening either west
of or near the western edge of the CWA and progressing eastward
during the night. Have kept the chance of precipitation going in
every period through Monday, but lowered chances during the
afternoon hours on Sunday to reflect this pattern.

Things should quiet down a bit for early to middle next week as low
pressure drops across the Canadian border and heads southeast into
the Great Lakes region, allowing ridging to build over the High
Plains and slight northwest flow to develop over the forecast area.
Cooler air filtering down in this northwest-flow regime should keep
temperatures close to their seasonable values through Wednesday,
with highs generally in the lower to mid 80s and lows in the 60s.
Although the overall pattern supports strengthening of the ridge as
low pressure enters the Pacific NW toward the end of the work week,
a few models hint that a weak wave or two could work their way out
from Rockies, bringing a slight chance of precipitation by Wednesday
night into Thursday. For now, have kept the overall PoPs fairly low
from Wednesday through the end of the forecast period, since the
overall pattern does not support widespread precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 609 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible this morning across northern Missouri
and some of this activity may develop/move close to STJ. Additional
thunderstorms may develop to the north of terminals and move towards
the region overnight. Probability remains too low for mention in
forecast at MCI/MKC.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...Blair