000
FXUS63 KEAX 210050
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
750 PM CDT Mon May 20 2013

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 749 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

Main line of convection is pushing east of the forecast area, and
tornado watch 190 has been canceled for all but a few counties
across central MO, and these will be cleared shortly.

Main front is just west of I-35 and is sparking a new line of
convection over IA and far northern MO. It`s still uncertain how far
south this line will build as the sun goes down and surface-based
inhibition begins to increase. Mesoscale model guidance is backing
off on convection developing southward along the front toward KC, so
it appears the window for any additional strong storm development may
be shrinking. However, if storms do develop, shear and instability
profiles will support strong to severe storms which could develop
into a line with large hail and damaging winds, mainly north of the
Missouri River. Odds of this happening seem to be about 30 percent or
less at this point.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 311 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

Thunderstorm chances remain the focal point in the short term
portions of the forecast. Late this afternoon, convection was
beginning to blossom over southeastern Kansas and west Central
Missouri in response to a speed max rotating around the base of the
expansive upper trough.  MLCAPE values approaching 2000-3000 J/KG
have spread northeast across the KS/MO border. Initial convection
this afternoon appears to be rooted AOA 800 mb as a fairly
substantial EML persists around 850mb (as noted from 19Z aircraft
sounding from MCI). RAP/NAM soundings seem to be too aggressive in
eroding this EML this afternoon, perhaps due to the poor
initialization of mid-level moisture advection northward.
Nevertheless, these elevated supercells will continue for the
upcoming few hours with the potential for very large hail.  This
activity also is riding just north of a remnant outflow boundary
just south of the CWA, which if it can be forced northward, would
lead to a higher potential damaging winds isolated tornadoes should
storms begin to become rooted in the boundary layer. Storm
trajectories continue to push activity northeast and with flow aloft
rather unidirectional, training and flash flooding may become an
issue over the southern zones this evening.

Tonight, short term models have partially backed off on the
development of a broken line of convection over NE Kansas and NW
Missouri towards 00z as a secondary front begins to sweep into the
CWA. However, soundings continue to look favorable for severe
convection and given projected height falls, feel that this
convection may become more of a reality.

Tuesday: Secondary shortwave now beginning to rotate through Nevada
will lift northeast through southern Missouri on Tuesday. This
shortwave may produce renewed convection over the eastern CWA int
the afternoon, with severe chances primarily focused over eastern
and southeastern Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM  CDT MON MAY 20 2013

Upper level trough will gradually lift northeastward into the
southern Great Lakes region by the end of the workweek. Thunderstorm
chances will decrease as this system moves out of the region...with
some lingering convection into Wednesday morning across northern
Missouri. Cooler weather will follow the out going system with high
temperatures remaining in the 70s and lows generally in the 50s.
Shortwave ridging will begin to build into the Central Plains by the
weekend bringing warmer temperatures with it. A series of shortwave
troughs moving along the ridge will result in the chance for
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop towards the end of
the week along a frontal boundary that is forecast to set up across
the Kansas and Missouri.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 557 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

Broken line of cumulus north of St. Joseph slowly becoming agitated
early this evening. General trends support the potential for minor
development north of St. Joseph, however feel that the KC terminals
will remain clear of additional convection.

Surface front remains just west of the state line at 6pm, and should
push eastward by 03Z. Into daybreak, expecting VFR conditions and a
west wind.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Hawblitzel
SHORT TERM...Dux
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...Dux