Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 131134
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
534 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 334 AM CST WED DEC 13 2017

Broad northwest flow prevailing over the Nation`s midsection this
morning with water vapor imagery showing a compact shortwave
diving southeast from the Northern Plains. With time today, upper
wave will continue diving southeast through the mid Mississippi
Valley which the attendant sfc low expected to track east towards
the western Great Lakes by late this afternoon. As this occurs,
fcst models in excellent agreement that a trailing cold front will
slide south over our region later today, with strong northwest
winds expected in its wake. Given the lack of any appreciable
precip in recent weeks, and the cured state of grasses across the
area, strong winds combined with low relative humidity values
will set the stage for elevated fire danger once again across the
lower Missouri Valley as winds gust to over 30 mph later today.
For now, have hit the fire danger threat with an SPS statement for
much of the area, with the only exception being across the far
northeast where cooler temperatures will lead to less critical
min-RH values. Regardless, strong winds combined with dry fuels
will allow for the rapid spread of any grass fires that ignite,
thus outdoor burning is highly discouraged.

Aforementioned frontal passage should be marked with little more
than increasing clouds and a wind shift towards the northwest
later today. Cannot totally rule out a passing sprinkle or two
from the passing cloud cover, however dry low-level conditions
should result in the evaporation of the majority of any precip
that falls. Beyond this, expect cooler air to settle into the area
as high pressure slowly approaches from the northwest. In fact,
tomorrow`s high temps will be close to 20 degrees cooler than
today`s values.

Next item of interest will arrive Thurs night/early Fri when
another wave dives southeast in continued northwest flow aloft.
Fcst guidance in recent days has been consistent in highlighting
light QPF as the wave approaches our area, and this suggestion
has been maintained with this morning`s runs as well. Considering
the overall light nature, the majority of any precip will likely
fall as sprinkles or flurries. Beyond this, dry weather looks to
return for Friday and much of Saturday with warming temps expected
Saturday afternoon as southerly flow returns to the area. By
Saturday night/early Sunday, fcst models suggest precip will
start working back into the area as a disturbance tracking east
from the Southern Rockies taps into Gulf moisture and passes to
our south. It looks as though our area will be on the northern
fringe of the precip shield as a ridge of high pressure extends
east across the Central Plains, however some may be lucky enough
to benefit from some rainfall, especially for locations south of
Route 50. Otherwise, dry weather and seasonable temperatures look
to return for the start of next week as northwest flow prevails
aloft.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 534 AM CST WED DEC 13 2017

Main story today will be gusty northwest winds following the
passage of yet another cold front by early afternoon. Gusts up to
30 kts will be possible during the mid-afternoon hours before
speeds gradually start to weaken later this evening. As we head
into the late evening hours, fcst models show an expanding area of
low stratus that will track south over area terminals, and there
stands a chance that MVFR restrictions may develop during the
overnight hours. For now, will allow later shifts the opportunity
in inspect new model guidance before making an insertion.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...32



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