Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 211119

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
619 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

Issued at 342 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2017

Hot and humid, will be the prevailing conditions over the next
couple of days as the broader pattern across the central Plains
transitions from a trough to a more zonal flow, only to be flowed by
another large trough, which should make for some rather nice weather
for the weekend.

In the near term, water vapor imagery shows a weak trough moving to
our east this morning with a ridge to our west, which is flattening
and spreading east into the Plains States. This has pushed the
prevailing westerlies to our north, which will allow the hot and
humid conditions of Tuesday to persist into today and Thursday.
Isolated storms did bubble up this morning as warm air advection,
under the ridge stretching into the Plains, found the edge of the
cap; but the lack of shear or support from a trough or surface front
meant that the storms that developed didn`t last long. And, in
general, this is expected from any stormy activity that might bubble
up today or Thursday. Best potential for storms looks to remain
limited to areas just north of our region as little shortwave
troughs zip east ahead of a larger amplifying trough that will dig
in across the Plains States starting Thursday night. That said, the
trough zipping east tonight may be able to drag a few storms across
the northern tier of counties late tonight or early Thursday morning
with a fleeting chance for some strong thunderstorms on the Iowa
border. Better chance of storms will arrive Thursday night into
Friday as the prevailing westerlies begin to usher a large trough
into the Plains. The cold front this will push southeast across
eastern Kansas and Missouri early Friday morning may be sufficient
to generate some thunderstorms across Missouri, though the potential
for strong or severe storms looks very limited owing to a lack of
strong shear associated with the frontal passage.

Conditions, for Friday and through the weekend, are looking rather
nice. With the passage of the cold front early Friday, as the large
trough moves into the Plains, cooler temperatures will prevail
through the weeekend. In fact, the current outlook makes the weekend
temperatures look like they will be below normal (normal begin in
the mid-80s for late June). Temperatures are expected to rebound
next work week, but highs for Saturday will range from the 70s into
the 80s; and Sunday, highs might not make it out of the 70s.
Otherwise, there will be a passing chance of storms Saturday
afternoon and evening, owing to the northwest flow the large trough
will bring to the region.


.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 619 AM CDT WED JUN 21 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF cycle under mostly
clear skies. Only issue to watch will be winds as gusty south
winds prevail through the daylight hours. Otherwise, a strong low
level jet tonight may induce a bit of overnight wind shear, though
I have left it to later TAF issuances to address this.




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