000
FXUS63 KEAX 242327
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
627 PM CDT Fri May 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

Main change to the short term forecast was to push back the timing
of tonight`s precip. Per the latest short-term NWP, SHRA/TSRA should
develop over IA early this evening and remain just north of the CWA.
Meanwhile an MCS is progged to develop over far WRN/NCNTRL KS and
move toward and into the CWA well after midnight. This activity is
not expected to be severe and likely weakening as it enters the CWA.
All and all the best chance for precip tonight will likely be north
of the I-70 corridor. As for tomorrow expecting scattered TSRA and
SHRA over much of the CWA, but there should be periods of sunshine...
the day should not be a wash out by any means. High temperatures will
be warmer than today by some 6 - 10 degrees (upper 70s to around 80)

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

Forecast for the last half of the weekend and through next work week
continues to look unsettled, though some dry periods are beginning
to emerge.

Prevailing flow across the nation late in the weekend and through
the next work week continues to be defined by a blocking pattern,
with large synoptic troughs on either coast bracketing the ridge
across the center of the country. This setup continues to advertise
several shortwave troughs ejecting from, or moving through, the west
CONUS trough, repeatedly sweeping over the ridge through the weekend
into next week. However, latest model runs are beginning to shift
some of the focus for precipitation farther north along with the
storm track. This wont help reduce any of our precipitation chances
through Sunday, as storms are still expected to persist through
Saturday night into early Sunday morning, with another round of
diurnally driven Sunday afternoon storms possible. However, by
Monday, models advertise the preferred baroclinic zone on the edge
of the ridge will have shifted north into Iowa, taking the focus for
convection with it. Still looks to be some potential for storms in
the warm moist plume of air riding north on the prevailing southerly
surface winds, but POPs have been dialed back a bit across east
central Kansas into central Missouri as the focus looks to be
farther north. Continued this drying trend through Tuesday into
Wednesday as the ridge looks to strengthen enough to to force the
stormy activity up along our northern edge. Widespread thunderstorm
chances will return to the forecast area Thursday and Friday as the
west coast trough begins to shift east into the Plains States.

Otherwise, with the ridge building in and the storm track shifting
north, expect a slow warming trend to persist into next week, with
highs bouncing around in the 80s through next work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

Scattered to broken mid-level clouds will be the rule for tonight.
However, showers and thunderstorms developing across southern
Nebraska and central Kansas are expected to role eastward moving into
the terminals during the overnight hours between 09Z-12Z. Cigs should
remain VFR around 5kft with no visibility restrictions. Tomorrow
morning cigs with drop to 3kft and may even dip into the high MVFR
range with light showers in the area. Showers will come to an end by
tomorrow afternoon with broken cigs around 4kft. Winds will be out of
the southeast tonight around 10kts and will veer to the south
tomorrow morning. Winds will pick up to between 10-15kts with gusts
to around 20kts tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pietrycha
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...73