000
FXUS63 KEAX 131115
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
615 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 342 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

As of early this morning, a cold front has pushed south of the
forecast area to the Missouri Ozarks. In its wake, drier air has
advected into the region with dewpoints in the 50s. Surface high
pressure over the Northern Plains will continue to move eastward
today, influencing our weather with north to northeast wind speeds
under 10 mph and mostly clear skies. Highs today will be
approximately 10 degrees cooler than Wednesday, with afternoon
temperatures in the lower 80s. The western portion of the surface
frontal boundary will begin to lift northward as a warm front across
the Plains tonight. Isentropic ascent will increase over the area
tonight into Friday morning as the boundary shifts eastward and
moisture streams back into the area. The result will be chances for
elevated convection tonight into Friday, primarily along and north of
the Interstate 70 corridor. Overall shear and instability will be
modest at best, and therefore any severe weather threat will be low
with thunderstorms that develop. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to
diminish as the afternoon progresses, partially due to warming mid-
level temperatures from the southwest and the departure of the
stronger ascent. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop
over southern/eastern Nebraska and Iowa during the late afternoon and
early evening Friday. While the evolution of these storms is highly
uncertain, operational models suggest some of this activity may
consolidate into a cluster of thunderstorms and move southeastward
towards portions of the CWA. At this time, the highest probability
for measurable rainfall will exist across the northeast half of the
forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

Saturday-Monday: This period continues to look active as the upper
level ridge that has resided over the area begins to break down on
Saturday. This will be caused by two main features. The first being
an upper level trough that will move from the Canadian Rockies into
the Canadian Plains on Saturday. Not only will this flatten the upper
level flow across the area but, will also help to send a weak cold
front southward into the area. The second feature will be an upper
level shortwave moving out into the Central Plains by Saturday
evening. This shortwave will help spark thunderstorm development late
Saturday afternoon along the front across northern Missouri. As the
upper shortwave moves into the forecast area Saturday night another
round of thunderstorms will develop across the CWA. As such, have
likely POPs for Saturday night. The upper level shortwave will be a
slow mover and as such storms will continue onto the day Sunday.
There many be a brief period of dry conditions Sunday afternoon
however, another shortwave moving into the area from the Central
Plains on zonal flow will bring another round of thunderstorms Sunday
night. Storms will continue on Monday as the shortwave moves through
the region but will come to an end by Monday night.

Saturday will be the warmest day in the extended range with highs in
the mid 80s to lower 90s. With additional cloud cover expected on
the day Sunday and Monday highs will be a little cooler in the low
to mid 80s.

Monday night-Wednesday: Surface high pressure will move into the area
on Monday night and will reside over the area through Tuesday night
keeping conditions dry. Highs Tuesday will range from around 80 to
the mid 80s. Wednesday, model solutions begin to diverge with the GFS
depicting a warm front lifting northeastward into the area and
developing showers across the southern CWA Wednesday afternoon. The
EC keeps conditions dry with a a upper level ridge building into the
region. In any case Wednesday should be warmer with highs in the low
to mid 80s. Did keep the slight POPs inherited from the
initialization for Wednesday afternoon to account for the GFS
solution.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 612 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Northerly winds
will gradually veer throughout the forecast, eventually becoming
east-southeasterly by the end of the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Blair
LONG TERM...73
AVIATION...Blair