000
FXUS63 KEAX 181741
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1241 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2013

.UPDATE...
Issued at 924 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

MCv over central NE, shortwave sliding southeast through IA and a
weak frontal boundary moving south through the CWA has muddied the
water for the next 12 hours. All models except the latest RAP are
unable to handle the meso feature in NE. However, the 12z NAM and
even the 06z GFS do develop afternoon convection along the frontal
boundary from northeast KS through west central MO. given the
proximity of the MCV moving into a more unstable airmass...the 12z
NAM forecasts afternoon MUCAPES of 2000+ J/kg along and south of this
front believe it prudent as a starting point to insert low chance PoPs
over the west central counties after 20Z. May need to continue chance
PoPs into the evening hours across the southern CWA but will assess
that potential later.

The more widely scattered convection across northern MO and southern
IA is expected to dissipate this morning as it slides across northern MO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

With upper ridging to the west and northwest flow overhead,
conditions today should be generally dry while temperatures stay
close to average. A weak shortwave in this flow pattern will drop out
of Minnesota into the Corn Belt through the day, clipping northeast
Missouri in the process. Moisture and instability will be
lacking over this area thanks to surface ridging building in from the
north. Therefore the only effects from this system should be a few
high clouds and possibly some daytime cumulus. Some short-range
models are also bringing precipitation out of western Nebraska into
northwest Missouri later this morning. This activity should have a
tough time surviving as far east as MO due to dry air in place, so
stayed with a dry forecast for all areas through the afternoon.

Upper ridge to the west will flatten slightly on Wednesday and shift
its axis westward into the Plains. This will likely allow a weak vort
max to drop east-southeast toward western MO Wednesday and Wednesday
evening with an attendant threat for thunderstorms, especially across
KS and western MO. An increase in moisture should provide weak to
moderate instability for this feature to work with, but weak winds
throughout the troposphere will be unsupportive of strong or severe
storms, at least through Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

Thursday should bring the last real chance for precipitation during
the long range forecast period as a shortwave trough drops through
northern Missouri. Strong shear and decent instability could promote
a stronger storm or two, but increasing CIN and a lack of surface
focus may make storms hard to come by, especially during the
afternoon hours.

After Thursday a ridge will build into the eastern Plains, keeping
most convection off to the north. Precipitation chances will be
limited to the propagation of ongoing storms into the region, which
is hinted at by a few model solutions late Thursday night through
Friday morning; otherwise, the end of the week through the weekend
should be mainly dry. Ridging will also allow temperatures to warm
into the 90s for Friday through Sunday, while southerly winds and
decent Gulf moisture draw upper 60s to 70s dewpoints into the
region. These conditions will result in heat indices nearing 100
degrees in the afternoon hours, and will need to be monitored for
possible heat headlines in the future.

Most models indicate a gradual flattening of the ridge from late
Sunday into Monday as deep low pressure lifts across the Canadian
border. This shift in the pattern may allow for slightly better
chances of precipitation going into early next week, as well as
slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

Scattered convection will move across northwest and west central MO
and eastern KS this afternoon in advance of a shortwave spawned by
last nights Central High Plains convection. A weak cold front
oriented northwest to southeast will stretch across northeast KS and
west central MO and help focus and steer these showers and
thunderstorms. Inspection of NAM Bufr soundings shows a relatively
dry sub-cloud region suggesting potential for strong and gusty winds
should any convection form. Will use VCTS in the forecast with the
likelihood of updating the forecast and inserting strong winds should
the convection become better organized. Activity should be out of the
terminals by early evening. Thereafter, VFR conditions will exist.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...Hawblitzel
LONG TERM...Laflin
AVIATION...MJ