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000
FXUS63 KEAX 260456
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1156 PM CDT Sat May 25 2013

.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

With convection struggling to develop along the frontal boundary
across far northern Missouri this evening, have opted to reduce the
chance of precipitation significantly over the next few hours. Some
development along an elevated boundary stretching from southeast
through central Iowa will be possible over the next few hours and
could build southwest into the forecast area, so have preserved
increased PoPs across our far northeast during the early morning
hours. Convection currently over north central Kansas may also push
eastward into the area after 09z, so have brought in slightly higher
chances for showers and thunderstorms in the northwest during this
period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

Very few changes were needed to the forecast through tomorrow. Based
on latest high res models, radar, and satellite trends it appears,
other than a stray shower across the MO/IA border, the CWA should
remain dry this evening.  Later tonight a small cluster of storms is
progged to work in from the west, but the latest HRRR depicts a
weaker system than what much of the NRN third of the CWA experienced
early this morning. At this time I have an overnight precip forecast
that favors the northern half of the CWA with higher chance pops
compared to lower chances to the south.  As for tomorrow, more of
the same with lingering scattered morning showers and weak
thunderstorms with perhaps redevelopment in the afternoon.
Temperature wise the CWA will remain mild and rather muggy as
compared to the past several days under partly to mostly cloudy
skies.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

The potential for wet weather looks to bracket either end of the
work week, though there will be plenty of dry days in between.
Shortwave ridge will be dominating the Central Plains as Memorial
Day dawns, with nocturnal thunderstorm activity likely lingering
through the morning hours. In general, operational and ensemble
models continue to advertise that this modest ridge will stay in
place across the Plains States through Tuesday, when the west CONUS
trough will finally begin to shift east. As the trough begins to
move into the Plains the storm track will shift farther north which
should give most locations in our forecast areas a break from the
rain chances. However, given the negative tilt to the trough as it
shifts into the Plains, and the general synoptic pattern, thoughts
are that storms will not only return tot he forecast, but severe
weather may plague the region by the end of the work week.
Currently, the best potential for storms looks to be Thursday night
and Friday night as the nocturnal jet cranks up ahead of the west
CONUS trough.

Otherwise, with the prevailing storm track, and by extension the
prevailing westerlies, remaining to the north of Kansas and Missouri
through the work week we expect temperatures to rise to a category
or two above normal through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

A cluster of thunderstorms across northern Kansas and southern
Nebraska continue to move eastward tonight. Models continue to show
these thunderstorms weakening as they approach the terminals however
there is some concern that these storms will see an uptick in
coverage and intensity as a 30-35kt nocturnal southerly LLJ begins to
get cranked up. Have left the TAF dry for now however if that line
holds together there will be the chance for diminished showers and
thunderstorms to move into the terminals by around 12Z. Otherwise,
conditions should remain VFR as expect bkn clouds around 5-6kft
through the overnight. GFS MOS and LAMP guidance as well as NAM BUFR
soundings are still trying to introduce MVFR cigs tomorrow morning
around 11Z however still think the boundary layer is too moist.
Did however include a sct deck around 2500ft around 11Z. Expect sct-
bkn cigs around 4kft through the afternoon tomorrow. There will be
the chance for afternoon thunderstorms however timing and placement
on these storms continue to be nebulous as it may be contingent on
any leftover outflow boundaries from tonights activity. Winds during
the TAF period will be out of the SSE around 8-15kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Laflin
SHORT TERM...Pietrycha
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...73