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000
FXUS63 KEAX 202001
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
301 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost/Freeze conditions expected tonight. Protect sensitive
  vegetation.

- Showers and thunderstorms possible monday night into Tuesday.

- Severe weather may be possible late next week and will need to
  be monitored for future forecasts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

This afternoon, modest cold air advection has continued to keep
temperatures seasonably cool with highs in the 50s. Tonight, high
pressure will build into the region from the northern Plains. This
will create a good radiational cooling set up with mostly clear
skies and light winds. As such, temperatures north of the highway 36
corridor will drop below freezing. Along and south of the Highway 36
corridor temperatures will be in the mid 30s with frost development
expected. Consequently, freeze warnings and frost advisories have
been issued for those areas and sensitive vegetation will need to be
protected. Tomorrow, the surface ridge of high pressure axis will
move directly over the area providing sunny skies but weak mixing.
This will keep temperatures below normal tomorrow with highs in the
upper 50s to lower 60s. High pressure will continue to dominate the
area tomorrow night providing another cool night with lows falling
into the mid to upper 30s. Consequently, a frost advisory may again
be needed for part of the area tomorrow night. Monday, the surface
ridge will slide southeast of the area with WAA getting under way.
This will allow highs to return to near normal with highs in the mid
60s to lower 70s.

Monday night into Tuesday a upper level trough will dig from the
northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. This will force an attendant
cold front into the area on late Monday night into Tuesday with
showers and thunderstorms developing over the area. Despite, the
storms and the early day cold frontal passage on Tuesday, cooler air
will lag behind the front and highs are still expected to achieve
the upper 60s to mid 70s. Wednesday the area will be under northwest
flow aloft with a easterly fetch at the surface keeping temperatures
seasonable with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Wednesday night
into Thursday a upper level trough will quickly move from southern
California to western High Plains. This will cause upstream upper
ridging to build over the area on Thursday however, increasing cloud
cover will hold highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Thursday night, a
lead shortwave is expected to eject out from the upper level trough
which will be over western Kansas. This will allow showers and
thunderstorms to develop over the area. Friday, the upper trough
which may take on a negatively tilt is expected to move through the
area. This could bring the potential for severe weather and bears
watching for future forecast packages.


&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1157 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

VFR conds are expected thru the pd with sct-bkn mid-lvl
clouds. Winds out of the NNW will gust to 20kts thru 23Z-00Z
before they wkn to btn 5-10kts. Lgt and vrb winds are expected
aft 06Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday for MOZ020>025-
     028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
     Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday for MOZ001>008-
     011>017.
KS...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HB/73
AVIATION...73