Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 021712
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1112 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 317 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
The forecast philosophy remains largely unchanged, with the
primary weather concern focused on the positively-tilted upper
trough and a lead shortwave trough currently over southern
California projected to eject into the Central Plains on Tuesday,
with surface cyclogenesis occurring over eastern Colorado. The low
and an associated cold front will push through the forecast area
Filtered sun is expected today, with temperatures a few degrees
warmer with most locations reaching or exceeding the freezing mark
during the afternoon. Strong warm air and moisture advection will be
ongoing during the day in advance of the upper trough. The initial
ascent from the wave may generate some light precipitation across
the area this evening. While much of this will fall as a cold rain,
the exiting cold airmass may remain below freezing over the
northeast quarter of the CWA, owing to the possibility of a brief
period of light freezing rain. A light glaze of a couple hundredths
of an inch will be possible over northeast Missouri Monday night.
Any accumulation will be brief as air temperatures will gradually
warm during the night, with readings warming above freezing by
sunrise, minimizing impacts during a higher traffic volume.
Light rain will overspread much of the area on Tuesday as strong
ascent moves over the region, and in advance of a surface low/cold
front. Overall amounts have trended much less, with the higher QPF
remaining to the north of the area. Highs on Tuesday have gradually
trended a little cooler, closer to seasonal normals, with readings
reaching the lower 40s to lower 50s. The cold front will move
through the CWA Tuesday afternoon, with some small potential of
lingering precipitation transitioning to light snow late Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday morning before the precipitation ends.
There is still modest spread among model members, but there may be
some light snowfall accumulation over the far southern portion of
the forecast area Wed morning. Cold weather with below normal
temperatures are expected for Wednesday as surface high pressure
builds into the central CONUS. Highs on Wednesday will be nearly 20
degrees below normal. With clear skies and light winds, lows should
be unseasonably cold Wed night, with readings falling into the
single digits to lower teens areawide.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
The extended range looks dry with a moderating trend back to near
normal temperatures for the beginning of March.
Thursday, the upper level trough that was the catalyst for bringing
the midweek precipitation will swing east of the area. Surface high
pressure will build into the area keeping temperatures well below
average with highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s. That however, will be
the coldest day in the extended as Friday temperatures will moderate
quickly. The aforementioned surface high will shift east by Friday
and flow will return out of the southwest as northwest flow aloft
begins to relax. Highs Friday will range in the 40s. Saturday will
feature downsloping westerly flow which will allow highs to return
to seasonal normals in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
It is not until Sunday that model solutions begin to significantly
diverge. The EC bring a shortwave trough into the central Plains
with the chance for light rain on Sunday. The GFS, on the other hand
has a upper trough well north of the area across the Upper Midwest
with surface high pressure over the local area. Sided with the GFS
as it supports persistence forecasting. Expect highs to remain near
seasonal normals in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1112 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015
VFR conditions through this evening are expected to deteriorate
overnight into low MVFR ceilings. Strong warm advection will spread
moisture over the region with light rain or drizzle possible
overnight. It`s possible there may be a brief window for freezing
rain and/or freezing drizzle, but think the strength of the warm
advection will keep any precipitation liquid at the terminals.
Although a few hours of light freezing precipitation is possible
further north late tonight before temperatures warm above freezing in
the pre-dawn hours. Winds will increase from the south this evening
and then veer through the day tomorrow as a cold front approaches.
The frontal timing is expected to occur after 18Z with winds shifting
to the north after that time.