Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 270004
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
604 PM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Cold front has reached the KC area this afternoon, though its
southward progress has slowed with a weak surface wave moving
up from the south. This feature is starting to produce some light
showers across west central Missouri, and light precip should
continue to blossom through the late afternoon and evening as low
pressure rides up the boundary. Precip amounts will be light,
generally less than a tenth of an inch, and mostly confined to areas
near and southeast of the I-35 corridor. Temperatures should remain
above freezing across these areas so no wintry precipitation is
expected.

Behind the front, a second area of precipitation developing over
central KS will spread into eastern Nebraska and northern Iowa
overnight where several inches of snow will accumulate, but most of
this snowfall now looks like it will miss our forecast area almost
entirely to the north. While far northwest Missouri may still see
some light snow later this evening, possibly even a bit of sleet, any
accumulations should be very minor and may not accumulate at all with
relatively warm ground temperatures.

Airmass behind the front will be seasonably chilly with highs in the
30s and lows in the teens/20s over the weekend. A stronger front will
swing through the region on Monday and looks to bring some of the
coldest air of the season so far. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday are
forecast to be in the 20s...maybe even teens for some areas...while
lows drop into the single digits. Wind chills could be between zero
and 10 below. Other than perhaps some very light snow accompanying
Monday`s front, the forecast through the middle of next week looks
dry. The pattern then looks to get active by late next week with both
GFS and ECMWF taking a closed upper low out of the Southwest and into
the Plains/Midwest by Friday/Saturday. Will be interesting to watch how
future model runs play out, but given the inherent low-predictability
with such a system, several swings in track and intensity are highly
likely and we are still days away from knowing any details, or even
if such a system will impact our region at all.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 543 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Cold front currently extends along a general line from KIRK to KCNU and
continues to slowly move southward. Drizzle has developed along and
south of the front. Ceilings have continued to bounce between MVFR
and VFR but are expected to drop back to MVFR then to IFR by 02-03Z
as lower ceilings and reduced visibility move in behind the front.
Short term models are developing a band of light rain showers to
develop between a 03-07Z time frame. IFR deck will scatter out
tomorrow morning with MVFR deck beginning to scatter out by tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...PMM





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