Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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372
FXUS63 KEAX 262057
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
357 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 356 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Looking at water vapor imagery this afternoon, a trough is noted
over the western half of the Nation with a couple of smaller
shortwave troughs working through its base over the Rocky`s, though
the trough of interest today for us is currently seen moving through
the Central Rocky`s at this time. Farther to the east an upper level
ridge, over the southeast United States, is noted as it keeps
pumping moisture north into the Plains from the western Gulf
resulting in precipitable water values running around 1.8 inches
across the region early this afternoon. Closer to home, overnight
convection left some rain cooled air and cloud cover behind this
morning which helped keep a frontal boundary suppressed across
southern Missouri through the morning, but the trough moving out of
the Central Rocky`s has help lift the front back north as a diffuse
warm front which will likely come to rest in an inverted surface
trough stretching across eastern Kansas into northwest Missouri.

Today and tonight...expectations are that areas within the sector of
the inverted trough will destabilize rapidly this afternoon as a
warm front lifts into; which seems to be working out well so far as
visible satellite shows the cloud field across that part of eastern
Kansas becoming increasingly agitated while the radar shows
scattered storms developing. However, complicating things is the
cloud cover across central Kansas, which seems to have inhibited
warming through the early afternoon hours, which might be
contributing to the lack luster development on the storms currently
percolating up in eastern Kansas. However, if any of the storms can
find enough instability --and that is a bit of an if!--, the broader
environment has enough shear --0-6KM values are 40 knots across
northwest Missouri-- that severe storms will be a problem. Current
timing has activity that is currently in Kansas growing in intensity
through the late afternoon, moving into our section of Kansas and/or
Missouri between 4 and 6 PM this evening with storms spreading
northeast overnight. Currently, all modes of severe weather look
possible with storms in northwest Missouri this evening as surface
winds remain backed to the southeast across Missouri, though large
hail and damaging winds look to be the main threats beyond torrential
rain which could lead to localized flooding. Otherwise for tonight,
storms will shove off to the northeast as they develop, potentially
leaving an effective frontal boundary across our section of Missouri
Saturday, which might help keep storms percolating through Saturday.

In general, current short and mid-range models all point at the upper
level ridge spinning over the deep south persisting through the
weekend into the beginning of next work week. This will keep the deep
layer moisture moving north from the western Gulf into Kansas and
Missouri well into next week, which in turn will keep the threat of
storms persisting for many days.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Combination of MVFR to VFR conditions are currently prevailing across
the terminals, but more thunderstorms are expected to develop later
this afternoon in northeast Kansas and move east late in the
afternoon and evening. This will likely affect the terminals between
22Z and 02Z today. Confidence on timing is alright on timing this
afternoon, but is rather low with respect to the CIG and VIS
parameters. Storms are expected to shift east this evening, but
there might be lingering activity overnight that will require
monitoring.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Cutter



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