Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 242038
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
338 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 338 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

Tonight - Monday:

An extensive area of mid thick mid level cloud cover with embedded
light showers/sprinkles will continue to spread east across northern
MO with increasing high-based mid level clouds advancing through
west central MO. Lacking a push from the north and a hot and steamy
airmass to the south a weak cold front has made little progress
today. The boundary lies between MCI and STJ and extends through the
northeast corner of the CWA and to the west southwest into central
KS. A very warm elevated layer has kept convection in check. Believe
we have a small window between 23z and 02z for surface based
convection to form along the front. Should this activity fail to
develop we may have to wait until after midnight for any convective
activity to move in from the west. Have lowered PoPs some due to
closing window for surface based convection as well as the possible
delay until after midnight.

Tuesday through Sunday:

Compared to this past week next week continues to look rather
unsettled with multiple periods of precipitation chances after
Tuesday night. As the broad upper high reforms/retrogrades westward
into the intermountain region the flow becomes increasingly
dominated by northwesterly winds with embedded shortwaves/impulses
dropping southeast and through the Upper MS and mid MO River
Valleys. A nebulous surface pattern will exist with high pressure
shifting east and allowing a constant flow of moisture northward.
So, lacking timing consistency and surface boundaries am forced to
broadbrush PoPs throughout the forecast. Also favor going with
seasonal temperatures which is handled by the models.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 115 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

The current isolated showers over northern MO occurring behind a slow
moving cold front should increase in coverage and intensity this
afternoon. Additional stronger convection should form further south
across east central KS and west central KS along the cold front.
While VFR ceilings will be the most likely outcome with most of the
storms do expect pockets of brief MVFR ceilings with the more intense
storms. Showers and storms will continue to be possible over all but
far northwest MO overnight but slowly shift southward through the
night.

Weakening/lingering convection possible over east central/southeast
KS/west central MO through mid Monday morning with mid/high level
cloud cover gradually thinning from north to south.


&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-
     057-060-103>105.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     MOZ028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...MJ
Aviation...MJ



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