Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 170442
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1142 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

Quiet conditions are expected for the rest of the evening, even as a
weak cold front pushes southeast across the region. Winds behind the
boundary should be relatively weak overnight, and the colder airmass
will be slow to filter down over the next 24-36 hours, resulting in
declining high temperatures through Saturday. A few upper-level
clouds may drift in overnight, but a dry profile below 20 kft will
preclude any thick cloud cover or precipitation as the front passes.
Moisture wrapping around the parent shortwave trough may brush the
northeastern and eastern CWA on Friday, and have increased cloud
cover near our borders and lowered temperatures a bit below guidance
to account for this.

Precipitation chances continue to diminish for Sunday as a second
shortwave trough brushes our northeast, so have eliminated showers
from the forecast for this weekend. Seasonable temperatures and dry
conditions will continue through much of next week until a deeper
trough moves out into the central U.S., but timing of this feature
continues to slow and may hold off until late Thursday or Friday, or
later if the upper low cuts off over the desert Southwest as some
models are beginning to indicate.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period.
Northwesterly winds will increase during the afternoon with gusts up
to 20 kts. A shallow cloud layer around 3 kft should develop during
the late morning hours, but otherwise expect clear sky conditions
overall.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Leighton/Welsh






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