Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 171117
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
517 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 308 AM CST WED JAN 17 2018

The warm up begins today in earnest despite a cold start to the day.
Surface high pressure resides over the area this morning keeping
skies clear, and winds light which is allowing temperatures to
plummet to the 5 above to 5 below zero range. As we move through the
morning, surface high pressure will shift south of the CWA and winds
will increase out of the southwest. This will help temperatures warm
but they will be tempered by northerly flow aloft. Highs today will
still remain 10 to 15 degrees below normal with highs in the mid
20s. Thursday, temperatures will continue to warm as northerly flow
aloft relaxes and southwest flow at the surface continue. Expect
highs near normal in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Friday, the warming
trend will continue however, how much snow we melt on Thursday will
play a part in exactly how warm we get. This continued warming will
come courtesy of increased WAA as well as weak upper ridging
building into the area from the eastern Rockies. This should allow
highs to rise into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

This weekend`s pattern continues to look unsettled however, it also
continues to look warmer. Continued WAA on Saturday will allow
temperatures to rise but will also increase cloud cover across the
CWA. A few WAA showers will be possible as well Saturday into
Saturday night. Highs Saturday will range from the upper 40s to the
north to the upper 50s to the south. On Sunday, the EC and Canadian
models show a closed upper level trough emerging from the central
Rockies. The GFS is more pressure keeping the wave open. All solution
would force a cold front towards the area on Sunday. Showers and
perhaps even a thunderstorm will be possible on Sunday out ahead of
the front with highs ranging from the mid 40s to the north and highs
near 60s across central Missouri. Sunday night into Monday, model
differences on the track of a surface low along a cold front
continue to make it uncertain on what areas will see a change in P-
type. The Canadian and EC solutions are further north with the
surface low and thusly keep the area warmer with only very minor
accumulations of snow across northwest MO. The GFS is a little
further south with the surface low and ushers in colder air behind
the front enough to produce minor accumulations for the entire CWA.
Have sided with the Canadian/EC solution at this time as warm
temperatures out ahead of the front usually is not a good set up for
snow accumulation across our area. Highs Monday behind the front on
Monday although cooler than the weekend will still be near normal in
the mid 30s to mid 40s range. Temperatures on Tuesday will increase
a couple degrees as winds return from the southwest under partly
cloudy skies.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 516 AM CST WED JAN 17 2018

Outside of a few high clouds VFR conds with clr skies will prevail
thru the TAF pd. Lgt and vrb winds this morning will pick up out
of the SW btn 5-10kts by late morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...73


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