National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS63 KEAX 120456
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1156 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind gusts as high as 30-35 mph this evening across the
  region; Potential elevated fire weather concerns for eastern
  Kansas/far western Missouri

- Above normal temperatures expected throughout the weekend with
  breezy conditions on Saturday

- Potential for severe weather Monday afternoon into evening

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Winds are currently gusting from 35-40 knots across the region due
to the strengthened pressure gradient with stout ridging over
western CONUS and a significant lower pressure system over the
Ohio/Indiana border. With the persistent, colder, drier air
advecting on station RH values are expected to decrease to the high
teens to the lower 20s for western Missouri. A red flag warning has
been issued for several of the most northwestern counties of
Missouri until this evening. As cloud coverage remains sparse into
the late evening hours and cold air continues to push through the
region, low temperatures are forecasted to range from the low 40s to
mid 30s. For the most northwestern parts of Missouri, there is a 20-
30 percent chance of temperatures reaching frost advisory criteria.
Breezy conditions are still expected for Friday, however as ridging
continues to build in behind the low pressure systems, winds will be
lighter than today with gusts as high as 20 mph across the region.
High temperatures for Friday are forecasted to range from the mid
60s to low 70s. By Saturday afternoon, the ridge axis moves into
eastern Missouri resulting in winds shifting to the south. Mid-level
troughing over the Rocky Mountains pushes in from the west. The
associated surface low pressure system over the South Dakota/
Nebraska border in conjunction with the higher pressure to the east
will result in a strengthened pressure gradient. This will lead to
breezy conditions on Saturday. Winds may gust as high 30-35 mph
south of HWY 36 and 25-30 mph to the north with diurnal heating.
With the strong WAA, high temperatures are forecasted to reach the
low to mid 80s across Missouri. Sunday, the low pressure system
pushes through and high pressure builds into central CONUS. This
will result in a weakening of the winds, but gusts up to 15-20 mph
are still possible for central Missouri. High temperatures are
forecasted to be a touch warmer with the persistent southerly winds.
Mid to high 80s are expected with a 70-80 percent chance of
exceeding 90 degrees for northeastern/central parts of Missouri.

Starting next week, the ridging begins to move out of the area and a
low pressure system moves in from western CONUS. Monday will be more
of the same warm weather until the evening. SPC has us in a Day 5
15% risk for severe weather. With almost 3 days of southerly winds
advecting warm, moist air this could lead to dewpoint temperatures
in the 60s suggesting increased instability. This is further
highlighted with CAPE values ranging from 1500-2000 J/kg and decent
shear ahead of the shortwave trough. A notable limiting factor would
be a significant cap present through the afternoon and evening
hours. Depending on if this cap erodes or not will be just one of
the determine factors of severe weather. We will continue to monitor
this system as models advance it. More high temperatures in the
upper 70s to low 80s are expected through mid week. On Thursday, our
next low level pressure system is expected to push through
increasing precipitation chances and shifting winds to the north.
This will result in a break from the heat going into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1153 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

VFR conditions through the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Blair