Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 241745
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1245 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014
Issued at 349 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014
Today - Tonight:
A surface ridge of high pressure is building southward into the area
this morning. This ridge will be in control today with the ridge
axis moving directly over head by this afternoon. This will lead to
plentiful sunshine and cool temperatures for July standards. Highs
today will range from the upper 70s to the mid 80s. Tonight an upper
level shortwave will round an upper level ridge stretching from the
Four Corners region into the southern Plains. This shortwave will
move into the central Plains move into the Midwest after midnight.
Best isentropic ascent remains north of the area however models
depict the southern extent of storms possibly making it into extreme
northern MO so have slight chance POPs in the forecast mainly along
the Hwy 36 corridor, northward.
Friday - Saturday night:
The main weather concerns for this forecast issuance will occur
during this time-frame in the form of heat. By Friday, strong
south-southwesterly flow will return to the area allowing for a
moisture influx as dewpoints climb into the upper 60 and lower 70s.
850mb temperatures by Friday afternoon will range from 24C-28C which
will yield highs in the upper 80s to the upper 90s. Factoring in the
humidity that will yield heat indices ranging from 98 to 106
degrees. A heat advisory may need be issued in future updates
especially for the western CWA. Friday night a cold front will
approach the area but stall just north of the CWA. There is the
chance for thunderstorms in the vicinity of this front Friday night
which may affect the northeastern CWA however most convective
activity will remain north and east of the area. With the front
remaining north of the area on Saturday, heat will remain an issue.
Highs will range in the upper 80s to mid 90s and, with dewpoints in
the low to even mid 70s, heat indices will be in the 100 to 108
range south of Missouri River. The caveat here will be cloud cover
and the potential for storms although conditions should remain
capped through the day. However, with instability very high have
included slight chances for Saturday afternoon. Saturday evening a
strong upper level trough will dig out of the southern Canadian
Plains. This will force the cold front into the local area.
Thunderstorms will again be possible however, forcing will be weak
across our area with the better upper level support well to the
Sunday - Wednesday:
This period looks to be mainly cool and dry with highs well below
average. By Sunday morning, the aforementioned cold front will shift
south of the area however cooler air will lag behind and highs
Sunday will be near normal in the mid 80s to near 90. By Monday,
cool surface high pressure builds in from the northern Plains with
highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s which will continue through
Tuesday. Wednesday will bring the only chance of precipitation in
the extended period as models depict a broad shortwave moving into
the area on continued northwest flow.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014
Winds will be the primary concern as convection over IA dissipates
with only high level cloud debris sliding across northern MO.
Southwesterly low level jet will form over NE/KS tonight with the
higher winds shifting into northwest/west central MO Friday morning.
As boundary layer mixing increases these winds will work down to the
surface resulting in gusty southerly winds.