Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 260907
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
407 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 406 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

Today - Tonight:

The last of the rain has just about cleared the CWA. A vorticity max
over northwest OK will continue its east-southeast track today,
pulling the trailing high clouds with it and leaving us with
generally clear skies. Modest cold air advection will offset the
abundant sunshine leaving us with below average temperatures.

Weak high pressure over the Central Plains will give way to falling
surface pressures and a developing area of low pressure over western
NE. This latter feature will be in response to elongated energy
diving down the backside of an upper trough which will be
deepening/sharpening east of the Mississippi River. Operational
models generate moderate isentropic ascent on the 290K surface which
will overspread the CWA this evening and aid in the
development/spread of an area of precipitation. Inspection of
NAM/GFS Bufr soundings show the cooling of the column such that
we`ll need to mention snow mixed in with the rain after midnight.

Clearing skies from north to south should allow for sub-freezing
temperatures by Friday morning.


Friday - Friday Night:

The pattern remains unsettled as another elongated band of energy
zips southeast through the Northern Plains and IA and eventually
through the CWA. Models are in generally good agreement on the
placement of the vorticity pattern. Just like tonight`s system
Friday`s feature isentropic ascent is expected to generate a long
but narrow band of precipitation within the baroclinic. This can be
best seen in the 285K/290K surfaces. With air temperatures likely to
fall below freezing under the precipitation bearing clouds will
mention a rain/snow mix for a large part of the CWA and outright
snow over the north central and northeastern counties. Lacking total
conviction have opted to use high chance PoPs for now. Measurable
snowfall also possible over this region.

Saturday - Sunday:

This period will be the start of a moderately strong warm-up as well
as yet another fast moving shortwave which could bring a chance of
showers to the region on Sunday. Since there is limited agreement
between the models will stick with low chance PoPs until a better
model consensus is reached. Expect a slight rebound, but still below
average, in temperatures on Saturday with readings ramping up into
the 60s for Sunday.

Monday - Wednesday:

Some uncertainty to the first part of next week owing to a large
difference between the sensible weather forecast of the ECMWF vs the
GFS, the latter being relatively wet in comparison. Nonetheless,
it`s looking like we`ll see an extended period of much above average
temperatures. GFS/ECMSF both drag a weak cold front through on
Wednesday with some indication of low-level moisture being advected
northward ahead of the approaching system.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

The back edge of light rain will continue to shift east into central
MO by 09z. MVFR cigs have cleared out of all the terminals with
clouds steadily thinning overnight. 

Ceilings will steadily drop beginning late Thursday afternoon in
advance of an upper level system streaking southward through the
Northern Plains. An area of rain/MVFR ceilings is expected to track
through northern and west central MO during the evening hours.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJ
AVIATION...MJ






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