Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 241140
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
640 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 317 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

Main concern for today will be precipitation chances along a slow-
moving front, and heat indices along and ahead of the boundary. A
few showers and isolated storms have percolated along the LLJ/front
intersection in central through northeastern KS early this morning,
and may continue to do so over the next several hours as this setup
generally persists. Most high-res models indicate that the storm
coverage may decrease as the low-level jet weakens after sunrise;
however, will keep low-end PoPs going through the morning in case a
few isolated showers attempt to linger along the front and/or
outflow from early morning activity. As a shortwave trough rounds
the upper ridge and pushes across the upper Midwest this afternoon
and evening, the boundary will begin to make a bit more southward
progress, and the increased low-level convergence and upper forcing
will support scattered convective initiation across the CWA. The
highest potential for storms will occur as the nocturnal LLJ once
again increases tonight and becomes superimposed with the upper
forcing, and the area may become more broad as lift becomes elevated
and the surface boundary becomes less of a focus. Deep layer shear
will be too weak to support organized convection, but more than
adequate instability may support a few pulsey, stronger cores that
could produce small hail or an isolated strong wind gust.

Ahead of the front, moisture pooling and weak surface winds will
result in very muggy conditions this afternoon. The narrow and
weakening LLJ during the late morning should limit the southern
extent of precipitation and potentially cloud cover as well, and
have seen cloud cover diminish south of the front and LLJ even early
this morning. Areas that do see more sun than clouds today will heat
efficiently and combine with increased low-level moisture to result
in very high heat indices this afternoon; possibly producing the
highest readings seen in the KC metro in the last several days if
the sun does make an appearance this afternoon. The heat warning
continues for areas south of Highway 36, and while areas north of
the warning may briefly reach advisory criteria, the dividing line
for the warning still looks appropriate given the uncertainty in how
far south the AM cloud cover and precipitation will impact afternoon
temperatures.

The front will continue to sag southward on Monday and eventually
wash out as surface high pressure bulges down from the northwest,
allowing slightly cooler and drier air to filter into the region.
Lower precipitation chances will coincide with the passage of the
surface high Monday afternoon through Tuesday night; then, the
pattern of weak return flow on the back side of the high and more
northerly flow aloft will allow for on-and-off storm chances and
seasonable temperatures through the remainder of the forecast
period.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 640 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

Showers and a few isolated storms will percolate along a nearly
stationary cold front near KSTJ this morning, but are expected to
begin dissipating over the next few hours. Storms will then redevelop
along the front late this afternoon or this evening, and may impact
all TAF sites between 21z and 06z. The most likely period for storms
is from 00z to 03z. Winds will be light and variable along the front,
then will veer to the north and eventually the northeast during the
evening and overnight hours. Ceilings will generally be VFR, except
during periods of storms.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-
     057-060-103>105.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     MOZ028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...Laflin



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