Public Information Statement
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

150
NOUS43 KEAX 311423
PNSEAX
KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-010230-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
923 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2017

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Effective May 1, the Missouri Basin River Forecast Center (MBRFC)
will officially modify the content of the ESPKRF text products
and the associated forecasts. The forecasts contained in the
revised product will now reflect the result of the MBRFC Ensemble
Streamflow Prediction (ESP) model. This action is being undertaken
to provide NWS partners with probabilistic forecasts and to
provide consistency across the National Weather Service`s water
supply program. A forecast product similar to the one below will
be issued early in the month. Near the middle of the month, the
product will be reissued under the same PIL with a forecast
discussion included. Also, the new product will utilize mixed-case
format rather than the traditional ALL CAPS format.

The 50% column will indicate the median value from the ESP
forecast ensemble. The 10th and 90th values represent the 10th and
90th percentiles, respectively, in the forecast ensemble. The %AVG
column provides the 30-year average seasonal runoff for the given
forecast location.

An example product follows. While the new product will look much
like the former one, the values provided will now be entirely
generated by the NWS ESP process as executed by MBRFC.

FGUS63 KKRF 091933
ESPKRF

WATER SUPPLY FORECAST
NWS MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
PLEASANT HILL MISSOURI

1930Z THURSDAY MARCH 09 2017

DATA CURRENT AS OF: MARCH 07 2017

MISSOURI/YELLOWSTONE/PLATTE RIVER BASIN FORECASTS

                                        50%   %   10%   90%  AVG
FORECAST POINT                  PERIOD (KAF) AVG (KAF) (KAF)(KAF)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
BOYSEN RESERVOIR INFLOWAPR-SEP1527 194% 1986 1256 787
SBDW4N
BIGHORN R AT KANEAPR-SEP2664 170% 3490 2190 1564
LVEW4N
GREYBULL R NR MEETEETSEAPR-SEP275  114% 404  207  242
MEEW4N
BUFFALO BILL RESERVOIR INFLOWAPR-SEP1155 144% 1363 1028 800
CDYW4N
ST MARY R NR BABBAPR-SEP342  78%  418  268  437
SMYM8N
ST MARY R AT INT BOUNDARYAPR-SEP410  81%  520  325  507
SMBM8N
MILK R NR CUT BANKAPR-SEP43   123% 110  23   35
PDBM8N
MILK R AT EASTERN CROSSINGAPR-SEP63   102% 171  34   62
ERNM8N
NORTH PLATTE R NR NORTHGATEAPR-SEP381  168% 537  304  227
NGTC2
ENCAMPMENT R NR ENCAMPMENTAPR-SEP152  91%  205  122  166
ERCW4
EMCAMPMENT R NR ENCAMPMENTAPR-SEP160  92%  213  131  175
ECRW4N
ROCK CK NR ARLINGTONAPR-SEP53   116% 66   40   46
KCRW4
ROCK CK NR ARLINGTONAPR-SEP53   115% 66   41   46
KCRW4N
SEMINOE RESERVOIR INFLOW WYAPR-SEP920  123% 1251 705  745
SETW4
SEMINOE RESERVOIR INFLOW WYAPR-SEP1069 119% 1405 848  899
SETW4N
LARAMIE R NR WOODSAPR-SEP34   56%  77   17   61
WODW4
LARAMIE R NR WOODSAPR-SEP70   72%  112  47   97
WODW4N
LITTLE LARAMIE R NR FILMOREAPR-SEP59   117% 86   45   50
SMTW4
LITTLE LARAMIE R NR FILMOREAPR-SEP61   116% 88   47   53
SMTW4N
ANTERO RESERVOIR INFLOWAPR-SEP13   83%  22   9    16
ANRC2N
SPINNEY MOUNTAIN RES INFLOWAPR-SEP38   64%  75   25   59
SPYC2N
ELEVENMILE CANYON RES INFLOWAPR-SEP39   60%  81   26   65
EVNC2N
CHEESMAN LAKE INFLOWAPR-SEP67   55%  141  42   123
CHEC2N
SOUTH PLATTE R AT SOUTH PLATTEAPR-SEP126  60%  258  79   209
SPTC2N
BEAR CR AT MORRISONAPR-SEP8    40%  29   4    19
MRRC2N
CLEAR CK AT GOLDENAPR-SEP82   74%  140  53   110
GLDC2N
ST VRAIN CK AT LYONSAPR-SEP90   93%  132  62   96
LNSC2N
BOULDER CK NR ORODELLAPR-SEP52   96%  94   37   54
OROC2N
S BOULDER CK NR ELDORADO SPR    APR-SEP22   59%  40   13   38
BELC2N
CACHE LA POUDRE AT CANYON MOUTHAPR-SEP191  93%  289  140  205
FTDC2N
LIMA RESERVOIR INFLOWAPR-SEP47   71%  78   29   66
LRRM8N
CLARK CANYON RESERVOIR INFLOWAPR-SEP181  102% 309  126  177
CLKM8N
BEAVERHEAD R AT BARRETTSAPR-SEP212  101% 353  159  210
BARM8N
RUBY R RESERVOIR INFLOWAPR-SEP76   84%  95   58   90
ALRM8N
BIG HOLE R NR MELROSEAPR-SEP735  140% 1055 571  525
MLRM8
BIG HOLE R NR MELROSEAPR-SEP793  136% 1113 630  583
MLRM8N
HEBGEN RESERVOIR INFLOWAPR-SEP538  129% 610  479  415
HBDM8N
ENNIS RESERVOIR INFLOWAPR-SEP821  112% 983  728  732
ELMM8N
GALLATIN R NR GATEWAYAPR-SEP504  108% 616  394  464
GLGM8
GALLATIN R NR GATEWAYAPR-SEP504  114% 616  394  442
GLGM8N
GALLATIN R AT LOGANAPR-SEP483  107% 669  338  451
LOGM8
GALLATIN R AT LOGANAPR-SEP621  107% 794  468  583
LOGM8N
MISSOURI R AT TOSTONAPR-SEP2780 114% 3823 2331 2430
TOSM8N
MISSOURI R AT FORT BENTONAPR-SEP4061 104% 5672 3423 3921
FBNM8N
MISSOURI R NR VIRGELLEAPR-SEP4679 108% 6528 3952 4324
VRGM8N
MISSOURI R NR LANDUSKYAPR-SEP4848 107% 6857 4125 4512
LDKM8N
MISSOURI R BLW FT PECK DAMAPR-SEP5018 107% 7104 4285 4706
FPKM8N
GIBSON RESERVOIR INFLOWAPR-SEP628  172% 811  543  365
AGSM8N
MARIAS R NR SHELBYAPR-SEP481  159% 673  392  303
SHLM8N
MUSSELSHELL R AT HARLOWTONAPR-SEP34   44%  80   17   77
HLWM8N
YELLOWSTONE R AT YELLOWSTONE LKAPR-SEP1095 157% 1237 1005 698
YLOW4APR
YELLOWSTONE R AT YELLOWSTONE LKAPR-SEP1286 148% 1459 1182 868
YLOW4N
YELLOWSTONE R AT CORWIN SPRINGSAPR-SEP2365 137% 2659 2102 1728
CORM8
YELLOWSTONE R AT CORWIN SPRINGSAPR-SEP2676 135% 2993 2392 1989
CORM8N
YELLOWSTONE R AT LIVINGSTONAPR-SEP2566 127% 2894 2270 2026
LIVM8
YELLOWSTONE R AT LIVINGSTONAPR-SEP2936 124% 3275 2622 2368
LIVM8N
YELLOWSTONE R AT BILLINGSAPR-SEP4054 117% 4834 3464 3479
BILM8
YELLOWSTONE R AT BILLINGSAPR-SEP5178 114% 5925 4535 4523
BILM8N
YELLOWSTONE R AT MILES CITYAPR-SEP9622 126% 114658315 7651
MILM8N
YELLOWSTONE R AT SIDNEYAPR-SEP9928 122% 119238510 8126
SIDM8N
BOULDER R AT BIG TIMBERAPR-SEP191  77%  242  142  246
BTMM8
BOULDER R AT BIG TIMBERAPR-SEP294  86%  341  235  343
BTMM8N
STILLWATER R NR ABSAROKEEAPR-SEP561  105% 646  494  536
SRAM8
STILLWATER R NR ABSOROKEEAPR-SEP622  105% 700  552  590
SRAM8N
CLARKS FK YELWSTONE R NR BELFRYAPR-SEP761  145% 867  673  524
BFYM4
CLARKS FK YELWSTONE R NR BELFRYAPR-SEP833  141% 937  744  591
BFYM4N
BIGHORN R NR ST XAVIERAPR-SEP3904 156% 4936 3242 2504
STXM8N
LITTLE BIGHORN R NR HARDINAPR-SEP88   87%  127  63   102
HRDM8N
TONGUE R NR DAYTONAPR-SEP80   84%  99   59   96
DAYW4N
TONGUE R NR DECKERAPR-SEP162  66%  223  114  244
DSLM8N
TONGUE R RESERVOIR INFLOWAPR-SEP165  68%  227  116  245
DKRM8N
POWDER R AT MOORHEADAPR-SEP197  67%  408  125  295
MHDM8
POWDER R NR LOCATEAPR-SEP225  67%  467  137  337
LOCM8N

Locations with an "N" suffix indicate natural flows excluding
stream augmentations

KAF: Thousands of acre-feet

%AVG:  Current 50%/avg

AVG: Average (50%) seasonal runoff volume as simulated by the
river forecast model considering a continuous stimulation of the
basin response to historic climate data (observed precipitation
and temperatures) over the period of 1979-2001

The 50%, 10%, and 90% columns indicate the probabibility that the
actual volume will exceed the indicated value for the valid time
period

For more information, please visit:  www.weather.gov/mbrfc/water

- Snowpack, reservoir, and water supply data from Natural
Resources Conservation Service are available at
www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/.


$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.