315
FXUS64 KEPZ 040934
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
334 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 333 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024

Not much respite from the ongoing dry, warm weather as we can
expect this dry with high fire danger pattern to continue through
at least the mid portion of next week. The cause of this high fire
danger is the continued very low humidity and gusty afternoon
winds, especially Sunday through Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024

Looking the the current analysis, the dry-line extends north-south
just east of Otero and Hudspeth Counties and may seep into the
eastern CWA next hour or two. Back door cool front is dropping
southward rapidly and models show it reaching the Sac Mtns and
northern Sierra/Otero Counties shortly after daybreak. This
modified moist air will cover much of the eastern half of the CWA
later this morning but then rapidly mix out as afternoon west
winds begin. Hence, expect some CU buildups Otero/Hudspeth
Counties but little or no chance of rain. Shortwave trough over
the northern Baja in the sub-tropical jet will sweep through this
afternoon for some high clouds and a modest increase in afternoon
winds.

Expect the dry-line to make it`s typical nocturnal push back into
the CWA, perhaps as far as the Rio Grande Valley Sunday. Again,
with the developing west winds, this moisture will rapidly mix
out. More CU buildups but little chance for rain. Of more
significance, the winds Sunday afternoon will reach RFW criteria
(excepting west Texas), so Fire Watch has been upgraded to Red
Flag Warning.

Dry and warm conditions continuing through most of the new week,
with gusty winds continuing each afternoon Monday through
Wednesday. Went ahead and issued a new Fire Watch for all zones
Monday, and this could very well be repeated for Tuesday and
Wednesday in the near future.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024

VMC through forecast period under dry, southwest flow aloft. Skies
generally SKC-FEW250 overnight, becoming SCT250 Saturday morning.
Surface winds 240-270 AOB 8 knots overnight, increasing to 210-240
at 10-15 knots again tomorrow afternoon. Peak gusts of 30 knots at
KTCS midday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 333 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024

Near-critical to critical fire conditions expected today through
most of next week as our warm, dry pattern shows little signs of
change. Winds today remain under RFW criteria, but will exceed it
Sunday across southern New Mexico, thus Fire Watch has been
upgraded to Red Flag Warning. Very similar winds each afternoon
Monday through Wednesday (though more evenly distributed over all
zones). Hence Fire Watch has been issued all zones Monday, and may
be needed for Tuesday and Wednesday also.

Min RH: Lowlands 5-10 percent through Wednesday. Mountains 10-15%
through Wednesday. Vent rates very good-excellent through
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  90  61  91  62 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            85  54  85  56 /   0  10   0   0
Las Cruces               88  55  90  56 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               86  54  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               66  39  67  40 /  10  10   0   0
Truth or Consequences    84  54  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              77  46  80  45 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   86  50  89  52 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                83  51  87  51 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       87  59  88  60 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                89  53  90  53 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Hancock             91  53  93  54 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               82  53  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   90  55  91  56 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             87  53  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           86  59  88  62 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            86  49  87  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    87  50  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 86  55  89  57 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                85  52  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  76  42  80  47 /  10  10   0   0
Mescalero                77  44  78  46 /  10  10   0   0
Timberon                 75  40  77  42 /  10  10   0   0
Winston                  80  44  81  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                84  48  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                84  47  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             80  44  81  42 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   81  45  83  45 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    83  37  85  38 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               79  33  81  34 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  80  48  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   83  51  87  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  84  52  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           83  50  86  51 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               78  48  81  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for TXZ055-056.

NM...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Sunday for NMZ110>113.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for NMZ110>113.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...17-Hefner